Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Dassault Systèmes CEO highlights European automaker struggles and growth readiness in US and Asia in January 2025.</li><li>SK Hynix achieves impressive 70% yield in HBM4 testing, signaling advancements in memory technology.</li><li>China's tungsten export controls cause market price fluctuations, disrupting global supply chains. Foxconn partners with Sonora in Mexico for innovative smart city project.</li></ul>

Dassault Systèmes CEO highlights European automaker struggles and growth readiness in US and Asia in January 2025.SK Hynix achieves impressive 70% yield in HBM4 testing, signaling advancements in memory technology.China's tungsten export controls cause market price fluctuations, disrupting global supply chains. Foxconn partners with Sonora in Mexico for innovative smart city project.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (28-Feb-2025): Jan 2025 notebook shipment update

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>3Q results inline at Revenue and Operating levels. Net Income 13% above Consensus. SK Hynix doesn’t provide guidance but “indications”, pointing to KRW 20bn revenues in 4Q, close to consensus.</li>
<li>HBM capacity for 2025 is already sold out. Accelerating launch cadence: HBM3e 12Hi in 4Q24, HBM4 in 2H25. This should create a wider gap with competitors Micron and Samsung.</li>
<li>The stock is very cheap and very compelling, trading at 5.3x 2025 EPS and 1.6x book value for 30% ROE. Very cheap considering HBM visibility and leadership. </li>
</ul>


3Q results inline at Revenue and Operating levels. Net Income 13% above Consensus. SK Hynix doesn’t provide guidance but “indications”, pointing to KRW 20bn revenues in 4Q, close to consensus.
HBM capacity for 2025 is already sold out. Accelerating launch cadence: HBM3e 12Hi in 4Q24, HBM4 in 2H25. This should create a wider gap with competitors Micron and Samsung.
The stock is very cheap and very compelling, trading at 5.3x 2025 EPS and 1.6x book value for 30% ROE. Very cheap considering HBM visibility and leadership. 


SK Hynix 3Q24 Inline, 4Q Close to Consensus, HBM Visibility Is Very High, the Stock Is Very Cheap

<ul><li>TSMC implements restrictions on Chinese IC firms to follow US semiconductor controls, limiting access to advanced chip technologies.</li><li>Estonian defense delegation seeks collaboration with Taiwan on drones, highlighting growing partnership between the two countries.</li><li>ASE faces leadership uncertainty after chairman's heir tragically passes away, impacting the future direction of the semiconductor giant.</li></ul>

TSMC implements restrictions on Chinese IC firms to follow US semiconductor controls, limiting access to advanced chip technologies.Estonian defense delegation seeks collaboration with Taiwan on drones, highlighting growing partnership between the two countries.ASE faces leadership uncertainty after chairman's heir tragically passes away, impacting the future direction of the semiconductor giant.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Feb-2025): TSMC tightens restrictions on Chinese IC firms.

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

<ul>
<li>As we hit Chinese New Year break,  we want to examine if Hynix's earnings and investor call met investor expectations</li>
<li>6 key questions going in and where we are post <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> reporting and before <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> reports early February</li>
<li>The consensus is that the key questions were not answered.  Well, not all answered and some remains to be seen. </li>
</ul>


As we hit Chinese New Year break,  we want to examine if Hynix's earnings and investor call met investor expectations
6 key questions going in and where we are post SK Hynix (000660 KS) reporting and before Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) reports early February
The consensus is that the key questions were not answered.  Well, not all answered and some remains to be seen. 


South Korea

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (000660 KS)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (28-Feb-2025): Jan 2025 notebook shipment update

January 2025 notebook shipment update; Dassault Systèmes CEO comments on European automakers, SK Hynix achieves 70% yield in HBM4 testing, China's...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

SK Hynix 3Q24 Inline, 4Q Close to Consensus, HBM Visibility Is Very High, the Stock Is Very Cheap

SK Hynix reports inline 3Q results. HBM capacity is sold out for 2025 and the launching schedule should outpace competitors and widen SK Hynix...

Nicolas Baratte

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Feb-2025): TSMC tightens restrictions on Chinese IC firms.

TSMC restricts Chinese IC firms, Estonia looks to collaborate with Taiwan on drones, ASE deals with leadership uncertainty, Taiwan's software...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Did Hynix Meet Expectations ?

Where are we on Hynix post earnings (pre Deep Seek)? 6 questions that investors wanted to know going into 4Q24 earnings call

Ken S. Kim

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Tech Supply Chain Tracker (28-Feb-2025): Jan 2025 notebook shipment update

January 2025 notebook shipment update; Dassault Systèmes CEO comments on European automakers, SK Hynix achieves 70% yield in HBM4 testing, China's...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

SK Hynix 3Q24 Inline, 4Q Close to Consensus, HBM Visibility Is Very High, the Stock Is Very Cheap

​SK Hynix reports inline 3Q results. HBM capacity is sold out for 2025 and the launching schedule should outpace competitors and widen SK Hynix...

Nicolas Baratte

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Feb-2025): TSMC tightens restrictions on Chinese IC firms.

TSMC restricts Chinese IC firms, Estonia looks to collaborate with Taiwan on drones, ASE deals with leadership uncertainty, Taiwan's software...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

​Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Did Hynix Meet Expectations ?

Where are we on Hynix post earnings (pre Deep Seek)? 6 questions that investors wanted to know going into 4Q24 earnings call

Ken S. Kim

SK Hynix reports inline 3Q results. HBM capacity is sold out for 2025 and the launching schedule should outpace competitors and widen SK Hynix...

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...