Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121


Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>From 15th may to 17th June our Asia-ex-Japan Model Portfolio returned 3.37% vs MSCI Asia-ex-Japan's 2.62%. Overweight on Korea and stock selection in HK/China, Taiwan and Philippines helped.</li>
<li>Top 5 performers were Digiplus (+31.9%), SK Hynix (+27.1%), Hana Financials (+23.8%), Netease (+21%), CCB (+9.8%). The worst 5: Alibaba (-11.4%), BYD (-8.5%), Trip.Com (-7.4%), Titan (-7.2%), M&amp;M (-5.1%).</li>
<li>Our themes - tech investment momentum, Chinese consumption revival, cyclical recovery in India and dividend yield across the region - are working fine. We make no changes to our portfolio.</li>
</ul>


From 15th may to 17th June our Asia-ex-Japan Model Portfolio returned 3.37% vs MSCI Asia-ex-Japan's 2.62%. Overweight on Korea and stock selection in HK/China, Taiwan and Philippines helped.
Top 5 performers were Digiplus (+31.9%), SK Hynix (+27.1%), Hana Financials (+23.8%), Netease (+21%), CCB (+9.8%). The worst 5: Alibaba (-11.4%), BYD (-8.5%), Trip.Com (-7.4%), Titan (-7.2%), M&amp;M (-5.1%).
Our themes - tech investment momentum, Chinese consumption revival, cyclical recovery in India and dividend yield across the region - are working fine. We make no changes to our portfolio.


Asia Strategy: Our Model Portfolio Outperformed. Focus Themes Intact; No Changes for Now

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>2025 GPU (Blackwell for Nvidia, MI350 for AMD) use HBM3e 12Hi. SK Hynix and Micron supply Nvidia, Samsung has failed qualification again. Micron and Samsung supply AMD.  </li>
<li>2026 GPU (Rubin, MI400) use HBM4 12Hi. SK Hynix, Micron are qualified by Nvidia – that’s done. Micron is closing the gap with Hynix. Samsung still nowhere to be seen.</li>
<li>Samsung got its consolation prize: AMD is using its HBM3e 12Hi in MI350. It looks like Broadcom will use Samsung’s HBM3e 8Hi in 2 projects (speculatively Apple and OpenAI).</li>
</ul>


2025 GPU (Blackwell for Nvidia, MI350 for AMD) use HBM3e 12Hi. SK Hynix and Micron supply Nvidia, Samsung has failed qualification again. Micron and Samsung supply AMD.  
2026 GPU (Rubin, MI400) use HBM4 12Hi. SK Hynix, Micron are qualified by Nvidia – that’s done. Micron is closing the gap with Hynix. Samsung still nowhere to be seen.
Samsung got its consolation prize: AMD is using its HBM3e 12Hi in MI350. It looks like Broadcom will use Samsung’s HBM3e 8Hi in 2 projects (speculatively Apple and OpenAI).


SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

<ul>
<li>Samsung 3nm yields improving (50-60%) but still far behind TSMC (85-90%)</li>
<li>SK Hynix is finalizing HBM4 agreements with Nvidia, Samsung is still not qualified for HBM3e.</li>
<li>Huawei into semiconductor chemicals? The vulnerability is photo-resist, but that's very hard to do </li>
</ul>


Samsung 3nm yields improving (50-60%) but still far behind TSMC (85-90%)
SK Hynix is finalizing HBM4 agreements with Nvidia, Samsung is still not qualified for HBM3e.
Huawei into semiconductor chemicals? The vulnerability is photo-resist, but that's very hard to do 


Samsung Still in the Woods, SK Hynix Still Ahead. China Semi News (Huawei)

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As the earnings season draws to a close, we look at Asian markets'/sectors' EPS estimate progression during the reporting season and earlier. Specifically, we search for upward or downward inflections.</li>
<li>Korea and Taiwan had the strongest EPS upgrades during this reporting season, despite the trade uncertainties. Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia also had decent upgrades. HK/China and India continue to be downgraded.</li>
<li>Korean and Taiwanese technology, Korean industrials, HK Technology Services had strong upgrades. So did Singapore and Philippines financials, and Thailand Communications - the latter two with a long upgrade history.</li>
</ul>


As the earnings season draws to a close, we look at Asian markets'/sectors' EPS estimate progression during the reporting season and earlier. Specifically, we search for upward or downward inflections.
Korea and Taiwan had the strongest EPS upgrades during this reporting season, despite the trade uncertainties. Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia also had decent upgrades. HK/China and India continue to be downgraded.
Korean and Taiwanese technology, Korean industrials, HK Technology Services had strong upgrades. So did Singapore and Philippines financials, and Thailand Communications - the latter two with a long upgrade history.


Asian Equities: Taking Stock After the Result Season: Where Are EPS Estimates Rising and Falling?

South Korea

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (000660 KS)

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

Asia Strategy: Our Model Portfolio Outperformed. Focus Themes Intact; No Changes for Now

Our AxJ Model Portfolio outperformed MSCI AxJ. Overwt Korea & stock choice in HK/CN, TW, & Phils helped. Themes - tech investment momentum, CN...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

Upcoming GPUs from Nvidia and AMD will utilize HBM4 memory technology, with Micron and SK Hynix leading the supply chain while Samsung lags behind.

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Still in the Woods, SK Hynix Still Ahead. China Semi News (Huawei)

Samsung's 3nm yields are improving but still lag behind TSMC. SK Hynix finalizing HBM4 agreements with Nvidia. Huawei exploring semiconductor...

Nicolas Baratte

Asian Equities: Taking Stock After the Result Season: Where Are EPS Estimates Rising and Falling?

Asian markets' EPS est show strong upgrades in Korea and Taiwan, while HK/CN & India continue to be downgraded. KR & TW Tech, HK Tech Services, SG...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

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Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

Asia Strategy: Our Model Portfolio Outperformed. Focus Themes Intact; No Changes for Now

​Our AxJ Model Portfolio outperformed MSCI AxJ. Overwt Korea & stock choice in HK/CN, TW, & Phils helped. Themes - tech investment momentum, CN...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

​Upcoming GPUs from Nvidia and AMD will utilize HBM4 memory technology, with Micron and SK Hynix leading the supply chain while Samsung lags behind.

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Still in the Woods, SK Hynix Still Ahead. China Semi News (Huawei)

​Samsung's 3nm yields are improving but still lag behind TSMC. SK Hynix finalizing HBM4 agreements with Nvidia. Huawei exploring semiconductor...

Nicolas Baratte

Asian Equities: Taking Stock After the Result Season: Where Are EPS Estimates Rising and Falling?

​Asian markets' EPS est show strong upgrades in Korea and Taiwan, while HK/CN & India continue to be downgraded. KR & TW Tech, HK Tech Services, SG...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Our AxJ Model Portfolio outperformed MSCI AxJ. Overwt Korea & stock choice in HK/CN, TW, & Phils helped. Themes - tech investment momentum, CN...

Upcoming GPUs from Nvidia and AMD will utilize HBM4 memory technology, with Micron and SK Hynix leading the supply chain while Samsung lags behind.

Samsung's 3nm yields are improving but still lag behind TSMC. SK Hynix finalizing HBM4 agreements with Nvidia. Huawei exploring semiconductor...

Asian markets' EPS est show strong upgrades in Korea and Taiwan, while HK/CN & India continue to be downgraded. KR & TW Tech, HK Tech Services, SG...