Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss 20 Korean stocks that could outperform the market in the next two months amid global tariff war and local political turmoil.</li>
<li>Going forward, we believe these 20 Korean stocks could continue to outperform the market in the next couple of months. </li>
<li>As the market tries to digest further the uncertainties due to tariff war and the local Presidential election, these 20 stocks could provide sound defensive outperformance. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss 20 Korean stocks that could outperform the market in the next two months amid global tariff war and local political turmoil.
Going forward, we believe these 20 Korean stocks could continue to outperform the market in the next couple of months. 
As the market tries to digest further the uncertainties due to tariff war and the local Presidential election, these 20 stocks could provide sound defensive outperformance. 


20 Korean Stocks That Could Outperform Next 2 Months Amid Tariff War and Local Political Turmoil

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As the trade war threatens to upend Asian economies' export driven growth, most will have to provide monetary and fiscal stimuli to boost domestic consumption and investments.</li>
<li>Studying their real policy rates, inflation trajectories, public debt to GDP and Government's borrowing cost, we assess which economies have adequate headroom to provide monetary and fiscal stimuli.</li>
<li>China, Korea and Thailand have adequate space to provide both monetary and fiscal stimulus. India can loosen monetary policy but not fiscal policy. Indonesia and Philippines are in India's camp.</li>
</ul>


As the trade war threatens to upend Asian economies' export driven growth, most will have to provide monetary and fiscal stimuli to boost domestic consumption and investments.
Studying their real policy rates, inflation trajectories, public debt to GDP and Government's borrowing cost, we assess which economies have adequate headroom to provide monetary and fiscal stimuli.
China, Korea and Thailand have adequate space to provide both monetary and fiscal stimulus. India can loosen monetary policy but not fiscal policy. Indonesia and Philippines are in India's camp.


Asia: Look for Economies with Headroom for Policy Support

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs caused significant declines across Asia-Pacific markets. Although initial losses were partially recovered during the day, most markets closed substantially lower.</li>
<li>
Impact on South Korea: South Korea faces a 25% tariff. This led to a 1.5% drop in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX).</a> </li>
<li>
Volatility Increase: The Kospi 200 VIX index rose to a high of 28.64 before retreating to 26.05, indicating the 99th percentile of implied volatility.</li>
</ul>



Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs caused significant declines across Asia-Pacific markets. Although initial losses were partially recovered during the day, most markets closed substantially lower.

Impact on South Korea: South Korea faces a 25% tariff. This led to a 1.5% drop in the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX). 

Volatility Increase: The Kospi 200 VIX index rose to a high of 28.64 before retreating to 26.05, indicating the 99th percentile of implied volatility.


KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 Index) Hits 99th Percentile Implied Volatility Amid US Tariff Impact

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Short notional ticked higher on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets and is expected to continue increasing over the next few months.</li>
<li>Since the resumption of short selling, foreign holdings of Korean equities have increased from 29.26% to 29.3%.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> ratio has stayed stable over the last 3 trading days.</li>
</ul>


Short notional ticked higher on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets and is expected to continue increasing over the next few months.
Since the resumption of short selling, foreign holdings of Korean equities have increased from 29.26% to 29.3%.
The Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) to KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) ratio has stayed stable over the last 3 trading days.


Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the averaging period for the April rebalance now complete, we forecast just 1 change for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.</li>
<li>Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 0.8-2.2x ADV to trade in the forecast changes.</li>
<li>The resumption of short selling makes it easier to position for these events. That could also result in the shorts moving a lot ahead of implementation.</li>
</ul>


With the averaging period for the April rebalance now complete, we forecast just 1 change for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.
Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 0.8-2.2x ADV to trade in the forecast changes.
The resumption of short selling makes it easier to position for these events. That could also result in the shorts moving a lot ahead of implementation.


FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Just One Change Likely

South Korea

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (000660 KS)

20 Korean Stocks That Could Outperform Next 2 Months Amid Tariff War and Local Political Turmoil

In this insight, we discuss 20 Korean stocks that could outperform the market in the next two months amid global tariff war and local political...

Douglas Kim

Asia: Look for Economies with Headroom for Policy Support

Trade war threatens Asian economies' export-driven growth, necessitating monetary/fiscal stimuli. CN, KR, TH have room for both, India for...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 Index) Hits 99th Percentile Implied Volatility Amid US Tariff Impact

US reciprocal tariffs announcement caused significant declines in Asia-Pacific markets, impacting South Korea with the KOSPI 200 implied...

Gaudenz Schneider

Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

Short notional has increased as has foreign ownership of Korean equities. Stock selection will become increasingly important. The forecast index...

Brian Freitas

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Just One Change Likely

Jusung Engineering could replace Wonik IPS in the index next week. Passives need to trade between 0.8-2.2x ADV in the stocks. The resumption of...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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20 Korean Stocks That Could Outperform Next 2 Months Amid Tariff War and Local Political Turmoil

In this insight, we discuss 20 Korean stocks that could outperform the market in the next two months amid global tariff war and local political...

Douglas Kim

Asia: Look for Economies with Headroom for Policy Support

​Trade war threatens Asian economies' export-driven growth, necessitating monetary/fiscal stimuli. CN, KR, TH have room for both, India for...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 Index) Hits 99th Percentile Implied Volatility Amid US Tariff Impact

​US reciprocal tariffs announcement caused significant declines in Asia-Pacific markets, impacting South Korea with the KOSPI 200 implied...

Gaudenz Schneider

Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

Short notional has increased as has foreign ownership of Korean equities. Stock selection will become increasingly important. The forecast index...

Brian Freitas

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Just One Change Likely

Jusung Engineering could replace Wonik IPS in the index next week. Passives need to trade between 0.8-2.2x ADV in the stocks. The resumption of...

Brian Freitas

Trade war threatens Asian economies' export-driven growth, necessitating monetary/fiscal stimuli. CN, KR, TH have room for both, India for...

US reciprocal tariffs announcement caused significant declines in Asia-Pacific markets, impacting South Korea with the KOSPI 200 implied...