Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Chey Tae‑won’s Korea–Japan integration push is fresh tape—unpriced and unconsumed—unlike the exhausted dividend tax story, making it the real policy‑momentum trade to watch.</li>
<li>Korea’s export model is fading, but a $6T Korea–Japan bloc plus CPTPP buzz offers a fresh policy‑momentum catalyst, with AI/data angles luring incremental global flows.</li>
<li>Korea–Japan cooperation isn’t a real bloc yet, but it trades like a policy theme—Chey’s 3PRO push makes it a headline‑driven short‑term play ripe for desks.</li>
</ul>


Chey Tae‑won’s Korea–Japan integration push is fresh tape—unpriced and unconsumed—unlike the exhausted dividend tax story, making it the real policy‑momentum trade to watch.
Korea’s export model is fading, but a $6T Korea–Japan bloc plus CPTPP buzz offers a fresh policy‑momentum catalyst, with AI/data angles luring incremental global flows.
Korea–Japan cooperation isn’t a real bloc yet, but it trades like a policy theme—Chey’s 3PRO push makes it a headline‑driven short‑term play ripe for desks.


Introducing the Unusual Policy Narrative Now Pushed: Korea–Japan Economic Integration

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 5+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. So far, the latest pullback is testing the uptrend -- buy/stay long.</li>
<li>We are buying the test of 7-month base support in Europe (EURO STOXX 50). China's Shanghai Composite points to a second chance breakout attempt above 1.5-month resistance -- buy/stay long</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 5+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. So far, the latest pullback is testing the uptrend -- buy/stay long.
We are buying the test of 7-month base support in Europe (EURO STOXX 50). China's Shanghai Composite points to a second chance breakout attempt above 1.5-month resistance -- buy/stay long


5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); China Second Chance Breakout Likely

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Samsung confirmed PRA sign-off for 1c HBM4, shipped samples to NVIDIA, went full redesign on base die, and is in talks with vendors like Hanmi for hybrid bonding gear.</li>
<li>From a trading POV: Samsung pivoting to Hanmi signals "speed over pride"—a clear tell they're serious about ramping HBM4 fast, even if it means breaking from vertical integration.</li>
<li>For the move to stick, yields and customer wins matter — but Hanmi’s stepping up, and this could give Samsung’s HBM4 story a real leg up if it plays out.</li>
</ul>


Samsung confirmed PRA sign-off for 1c HBM4, shipped samples to NVIDIA, went full redesign on base die, and is in talks with vendors like Hanmi for hybrid bonding gear.
From a trading POV: Samsung pivoting to Hanmi signals "speed over pride"—a clear tell they're serious about ramping HBM4 fast, even if it means breaking from vertical integration.
For the move to stick, yields and customer wins matter — but Hanmi’s stepping up, and this could give Samsung’s HBM4 story a real leg up if it plays out.


Samsung Earnings Call Signals Samsung-Hanmi HBM4 Talks: Catalyst Brewing for Both Stocks

<ul>
<li>Dropped an Excel below with all names showing borrow as of today’s close — includes short interest and borrow-to-float using latest float data.</li>
<li>Tables below flag names with borrow-to-float &gt;4% (&gt;3% for small caps) and plenty of unused borrow — solid candidates for potential short flow.</li>
<li>Not auto-shorts — still need basic checks. But with borrow rising, this set looks like a solid starter basket to watch for short flow.</li>
</ul>


Dropped an Excel below with all names showing borrow as of today’s close — includes short interest and borrow-to-float using latest float data.
Tables below flag names with borrow-to-float &gt;4% (&gt;3% for small caps) and plenty of unused borrow — solid candidates for potential short flow.
Not auto-shorts — still need basic checks. But with borrow rising, this set looks like a solid starter basket to watch for short flow.


Latest Borrow (Net Short Interest) To Float Ratios — Screening a Starter Basket for Short Flow

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Short notional ticked higher on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets and is expected to continue increasing over the next few months.</li>
<li>Since the resumption of short selling, foreign holdings of Korean equities have increased from 29.26% to 29.3%.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> ratio has stayed stable over the last 3 trading days.</li>
</ul>


Short notional ticked higher on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets and is expected to continue increasing over the next few months.
Since the resumption of short selling, foreign holdings of Korean equities have increased from 29.26% to 29.3%.
The Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) to KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) ratio has stayed stable over the last 3 trading days.


Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

South Korea

Hanmi Semiconductor Co., Ltd. manufactures and develops semiconductor equipment. The Company's products include auto molding system, sawing & placement system, campress trim/form/singulation system, and pick & place system.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hanmi Semiconductor (042700 KS)

Introducing the Unusual Policy Narrative Now Pushed: Korea–Japan Economic Integration

Right now the Korean tape’s running with a pretty wild policy narrative — Korea–Japan economic integration: an off‑consensus theme getting pushed...

Sanghyun Park

5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); China Second Chance Breakout Likely

5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI $ACWI; Bullish Outlook Intact; China Second Chance Breakout Likely on Shanghai Composite. Buying the test...

Vermilion Research

Samsung Earnings Call Signals Samsung-Hanmi HBM4 Talks: Catalyst Brewing for Both Stocks

This post covers Samsung’s earnings call confirming Samsung-Hanmi HBM4 talks — a strong catalyst brewing for both stocks.

Sanghyun Park

Latest Borrow (Net Short Interest) To Float Ratios — Screening a Starter Basket for Short Flow

This post shares the latest borrow (net short interest)-to-float ratios, screening a starter basket to watch for short flow.

Sanghyun Park

Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

Short notional has increased as has foreign ownership of Korean equities. Stock selection will become increasingly important. The forecast index...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)