Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Will there be changes in April's rebalancing? With two weeks left, two names are likely. Wonik IPS may be replaced by ISC Co Ltd, given a ₩150B market cap difference.</li>
<li>In the previous rebalancing, constituent changes had a notable price impact. Despite a passive flow impact of +1.0x ADTV, HPSP and EO Technics saw about a 15% 3-day return.</li>
<li>Wonik IPS is estimated to receive -4.0x ADTV, while ISC is expected to receive +1.0x ADTV. This is also quite similar to the previous rebalancing.</li>
</ul>


Will there be changes in April's rebalancing? With two weeks left, two names are likely. Wonik IPS may be replaced by ISC Co Ltd, given a ₩150B market cap difference.
In the previous rebalancing, constituent changes had a notable price impact. Despite a passive flow impact of +1.0x ADTV, HPSP and EO Technics saw about a 15% 3-day return.
Wonik IPS is estimated to receive -4.0x ADTV, while ISC is expected to receive +1.0x ADTV. This is also quite similar to the previous rebalancing.


Sector ETF Rebalancing with Remarkable Price Impact History: ISC In, Wonik IPS Out

<ul>
<li>The possibility of SKC securing additional shares other than the planned 40% through a tender offer seems low. This is a basis for the recent short position build-up in ISC.</li>
<li>ISC began to experience an influx of short selling, leading to it being designated as an overheated short-selling stock, and short selling was restricted for one day on the 26th.</li>
<li>We need to pay attention to the potential disappointment in the market, which could lead to a sustained downward correction in the stock price.</li>
</ul>


The possibility of SKC securing additional shares other than the planned 40% through a tender offer seems low. This is a basis for the recent short position build-up in ISC.
ISC began to experience an influx of short selling, leading to it being designated as an overheated short-selling stock, and short selling was restricted for one day on the 26th.
We need to pay attention to the potential disappointment in the market, which could lead to a sustained downward correction in the stock price.


ISC's Tender Offer Possibility Is Decreasing, Indicating a Potential Shorting Opportunity

<ul>
<li>Opposition's probable win in the election sparks concerns about Value-up initiative's momentum. However, market sentiment doesn't universally echo these worries.</li>
<li>Value-Up stocks' recent corrections likely stem from Q4 dividend arbitrage liquidation, rather than election result concerns.</li>
<li>Post-Election, even if the opposition wins, the left-leaning Value-up program might continue, limiting the opposition's influence, as seen in recent National Pension Service flows.</li>
</ul>


Opposition's probable win in the election sparks concerns about Value-up initiative's momentum. However, market sentiment doesn't universally echo these worries.
Value-Up stocks' recent corrections likely stem from Q4 dividend arbitrage liquidation, rather than election result concerns.
Post-Election, even if the opposition wins, the left-leaning Value-up program might continue, limiting the opposition's influence, as seen in recent National Pension Service flows.


Observations on Post-Election Flows of Value-Up Stocks, Based on Recent Local Institutional Trades

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Hygon Information Technology C / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and STAR100 Index were announced post market close on Friday.</li>
<li>The coming week is a full one with capping cutoffs, review cutoffs, announcements and implementations apart from futures expiries.</li>
<li>With China open after Lunar New Year, the National Team is back pouring money into ETFs with the largest inflows to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">ChiNext</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a> indices.</li>
</ul>


The changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index were announced post market close on Friday.
The coming week is a full one with capping cutoffs, review cutoffs, announcements and implementations apart from futures expiries.
With China open after Lunar New Year, the National Team is back pouring money into ETFs with the largest inflows to the CSI 300, CSI 500, ChiNext and STAR50 indices.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, HSTECH, HSIII, STTF, Top50, Div+, FXI, FnGuide

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13560:1" rel="noopener">ISC Co Ltd (095340 KS)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wonik-ips-co-ltd-5d7417b7-5438-41d4-a6e4-8016d24d818a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26912:1" rel="noopener">Wonik Ips (240810 KS)</a> in the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the April rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jusung-engineering-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12277:1" rel="noopener">Jusung Engineering (036930 KS)</a> is ranked just behind <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13560:1" rel="noopener">ISC Co Ltd (095340 KS)</a> and could be added to the index instead depending on relative price performance.</li>
<li>Shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13560:1" rel="noopener">ISC Co (095340 KS)</a> have been stable over the last few months while there has been big covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wonik-ips-co-ltd-5d7417b7-5438-41d4-a6e4-8016d24d818a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26912:1" rel="noopener">Wonik Ips (240810 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jusung-engineering-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12277:1" rel="noopener">Jusung Engineering (036930 KS)</a>. </li>
</ul>



ISC Co Ltd (095340 KS) could replace Wonik Ips (240810 KS) in the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the April rebalance.

Jusung Engineering (036930 KS) is ranked just behind ISC Co Ltd (095340 KS) and could be added to the index instead depending on relative price performance.
Shorts on ISC Co (095340 KS) have been stable over the last few months while there has been big covering on Wonik Ips (240810 KS) and Jusung Engineering (036930 KS). 


FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change Likely; Close Among Potential Adds

South Korea

ISC Co., Ltd. manufactures semiconductor testing equipments such as test sockets, burn-in sockets, and interposers. Testing equipments are used in the final testing process of semiconductors including DRAM, NAND/NOR Flash Memory, and Graphic Processing Unit(GPU) and are supplied to semiconductor manufacturers  abroad.

ISC Co Ltd (095340 KS)

Sector ETF Rebalancing with Remarkable Price Impact History: ISC In, Wonik IPS Out

ISC (095340) is still likely to be included, while Wonik IPS (240810) is expected to be excluded. The substantial market cap gap indicates an...

Sanghyun Park

ISC's Tender Offer Possibility Is Decreasing, Indicating a Potential Shorting Opportunity

There seems to be a decrease in the likelihood of a tender offer to minority shareholders for ISC, which could present a potential shorting...

Sanghyun Park

Observations on Post-Election Flows of Value-Up Stocks, Based on Recent Local Institutional Trades

This post outlines my observations on the post-election flows of Value-up beneficiary stocks, derived from recent local institutional trades.

Sanghyun Park

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, HSTECH, HSIII, STTF, Top50, Div+, FXI, FnGuide

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change Likely; Close Among Potential Adds

ISC could replace Wonik Ips in the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the April rebalance. However, Jusung Engg is not far behind ISC and could...

Brian Freitas