Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Exceeding the ceiling doesn’t cancel the merger; SK Innovation can still proceed. With their decision confirmed, focus should shift to appraisal rights flows rather than cancellation risk.</li>
<li>We should focus on flow trading given the notable exercise size and potential for unprecedented market activity if institutions, including the NPS, exercise their rights due to the juicy premium.</li>
<li>The large exercise size and SK Innovation's KOSPI large-cap status may create unique flow trading opportunities, with potential repurchases after new shares list.</li>
</ul>


Exceeding the ceiling doesn’t cancel the merger; SK Innovation can still proceed. With their decision confirmed, focus should shift to appraisal rights flows rather than cancellation risk.
We should focus on flow trading given the notable exercise size and potential for unprecedented market activity if institutions, including the NPS, exercise their rights due to the juicy premium.
The large exercise size and SK Innovation's KOSPI large-cap status may create unique flow trading opportunities, with potential repurchases after new shares list.


The Unusual Flow Trading Development Caused by SK Innovation's Appraisal Rights Premium

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jul 26th which has an aggregated holding worth USD549.0bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD854mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in Sk Hynix (000660 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS).</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jul 26th which has an aggregated holding worth USD549.0bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD854mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Sk Hynix (000660 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS).


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 26th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

CK Infrastructure Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy (GULF TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch (INTUCH TB)</a> merger is an opportunistic, bullying method designed to have GULF shareholders buy INTUCH and therefore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">AIS (ADVANC TB)</a> at too low a price. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a>'s interest in a possible London listing coincides with the LSE undergoing a listing regime change.</li>
<li>Management continue to creep their stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>, and now hold a shade under 50%. </li>
</ul>


The Gulf Energy (GULF TB)/Intouch (INTUCH TB) merger is an opportunistic, bullying method designed to have GULF shareholders buy INTUCH and therefore AIS (ADVANC TB) at too low a price. 

CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)'s interest in a possible London listing coincides with the LSE undergoing a listing regime change.
Management continue to creep their stake in Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), and now hold a shade under 50%. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Gulf Energy/Intouch, CK Infra, Zhongsheng, Thai Beverage, Fraser & Neave

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>On 17 July, SK Innovation (096770 KS) officially announced a merger with SK E&amp;S. The merger ratio between SK Innovation and SK E&amp;S has been set at 1 to 1.1917417.</li>
<li>We believe this is the wrong timing for this merger from SK Innovation's point of view. SK Innovation is trading at near three year lows.</li>
<li>This merger is likely to generate backlash from KKR which holds SK E&amp;S redeemable convertible preferred stock (RCPS) worth 3.1 trillion won.</li>
</ul>


On 17 July, SK Innovation (096770 KS) officially announced a merger with SK E&amp;S. The merger ratio between SK Innovation and SK E&amp;S has been set at 1 to 1.1917417.
We believe this is the wrong timing for this merger from SK Innovation's point of view. SK Innovation is trading at near three year lows.
This merger is likely to generate backlash from KKR which holds SK E&amp;S redeemable convertible preferred stock (RCPS) worth 3.1 trillion won.


SK Innovation's Merger with SK E&S: Bad Timing for SK Innovation and Higher Risks from RCPS

<ul>
<li>The merger ratio, not as unfavorable to SK Innovation as feared, shows SK Group acting cautiously amid political and regulatory scrutiny.</li>
<li>SK Inc.'s stake will drop to mid-60s; the 1.2x merger ratio for SK E&amp;S could positively affect SK Innovation's stock price short-term.</li>
<li>Persuading KKR is crucial. SK E&amp;S won't convert ₩3T in RCPS or grant appraisal rights, potentially leading KKR to consider litigation, a significant risk to the merger.</li>
</ul>


The merger ratio, not as unfavorable to SK Innovation as feared, shows SK Group acting cautiously amid political and regulatory scrutiny.
SK Inc.'s stake will drop to mid-60s; the 1.2x merger ratio for SK E&amp;S could positively affect SK Innovation's stock price short-term.
Persuading KKR is crucial. SK E&amp;S won't convert ₩3T in RCPS or grant appraisal rights, potentially leading KKR to consider litigation, a significant risk to the merger.


SK Innovation & SK E&S Merger Official Disclosure: Unexpected Merger Ratio

South Korea

SK Innovation Co., Ltd. refines, markets, and distributes oil.  The Company produces a variety of petroleum products, such as gasoline, kerosene, liquefied petroleumgas (LPG), and diesel oil.  SK Energy also manufactures petrochemical p roducts, including paraxylene, synthetic resins, styrene monomer, and ethylene.

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SK Innovation (096770 KS)

The Unusual Flow Trading Development Caused by SK Innovation's Appraisal Rights Premium

This post examines the unusual flow trading developments likely triggered by the sudden surge in SK Innovation's appraisal rights premium.

Sanghyun Park

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 26th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Last Week in Event SPACE: Gulf Energy/Intouch, CK Infra, Zhongsheng, Thai Beverage, Fraser & Neave

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

SK Innovation's Merger with SK E&S: Bad Timing for SK Innovation and Higher Risks from RCPS

This merger between SK Innovation and SK E&S is likely to be value-destroying from SK Innovation's viewpoint. It is also likely to generate...

Douglas Kim

SK Innovation & SK E&S Merger Official Disclosure: Unexpected Merger Ratio

This post outlines the official disclosure of the merger between SK Innovation and SK E&S, highlighting the unexpected merger ratio.

Sanghyun Park

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