New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The a2 Milk Company (ATM) provided a positive update on its supply chain and FY26 guidance.</li><li>As a result, product flows to distributors and retailers have materially improved, and stock levels for both English Label and China Label have returned to targeted levels.</li><li>With uncertainty still relatively elevated and ATM now trading on a 12-month forward PE of ~28x, broadly in line with history, we continue to see a balanced risk–reward profile.</li></ul>

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) provided a positive update on its supply chain and FY26 guidance.As a result, product flows to distributors and retailers have materially improved, and stock levels for both English Label and China Label have returned to targeted levels.With uncertainty still relatively elevated and ATM now trading on a 12-month forward PE of ~28x, broadly in line with history, we continue to see a balanced risk–reward profile.

<ul><li>The a2 Milk Company’s (ATM) share price tends to be highly volatile on result days—positively and negatively—but we are hopeful this time is different.</li><li>Top-line momentum appears robust, which should support solid growth into FY26 (assuming SML’s issues aren’t too big of a drag).</li><li>Beyond core China infant formula (IF) growth, updates on: (1) Genesis HMO traction; (2) supply chain transformation; (3) other nutritionals performance; and (4) US/MVM, are of particular interest.</li></ul>

The a2 Milk Company’s (ATM) share price tends to be highly volatile on result days—positively and negatively—but we are hopeful this time is different.Top-line momentum appears robust, which should support solid growth into FY26 (assuming SML’s issues aren’t too big of a drag).Beyond core China infant formula (IF) growth, updates on: (1) Genesis HMO traction; (2) supply chain transformation; (3) other nutritionals performance; and (4) US/MVM, are of particular interest.

The A2 Milk Company FY25 Preview—A Smoother Ride?

<ul><li>Mixed is how we would describe our feelings heading into The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) FY25 result.</li><li>Looking to FY26, with (1) a strong 2H exit run-rate, and (2) larger impact of a2 Genesis HMO, our earnings are slightly ahead of consensus.</li><li>We think valuation is slightly elevated at current levels, but countering that we are comfortable with consensus' outlook and are balancing the possible near-term catalysts of (1) supply chain acquisition (which could be announced at any moment), and (2) capital management opportunities.</li></ul>

Mixed is how we would describe our feelings heading into The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) FY25 result.Looking to FY26, with (1) a strong 2H exit run-rate, and (2) larger impact of a2 Genesis HMO, our earnings are slightly ahead of consensus.We think valuation is slightly elevated at current levels, but countering that we are comfortable with consensus' outlook and are balancing the possible near-term catalysts of (1) supply chain acquisition (which could be announced at any moment), and (2) capital management opportunities.

The A2 Milk Company Wheying Up The Investment Case

Hong Kong

SML Group manufactures and supplies apparel branding and packaging products. The Company offers products which includes woven and printed labels, heat transfers, stickers, variable data tags, packaging, and specialty trims. SML Group markets its products worldwide.

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SML Group (SMLGZ HK)

The a2 Milk Company Bottlenecks Breaking

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) provided a positive update on its supply chain and FY26 guidance. As a result, product flows to distributors and...

Forsyth Barr

The A2 Milk Company FY25 Preview—A Smoother Ride?

The a2 Milk Company’s (ATM) share price tends to be highly volatile on result days—positively and negatively—but we are hopeful this time is...

Forsyth Barr

The A2 Milk Company Wheying Up The Investment Case

Mixed is how we would describe our feelings heading into The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) FY25 result. Looking to FY26, with (1) a strong 2H exit run...

Forsyth Barr

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