TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>We  walk through potential acquirers for TikTok and think while Disney and Snapchat stand the most to gain, Microsoft or Apple are the most likely acquirers.</p>
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</div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div></div></div>


We  walk through potential acquirers for TikTok and think while Disney and Snapchat stand the most to gain, Microsoft or Apple are the most likely acquirers.

 
Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

<div><p>We have been bullish on Snapchat since the pandemic began for the simple reason that coming out of recessions, “Do More with Less” thinking dominates constrained budgets for consumers and corporates alike, companies that can provide more (better ROI, lower friction, ease of use, etc) take share. Snapchat has increasingly strong ROI due to its lower costs vs. other online ad platforms. A 1m DAU miss and conservative guidance doesn't alter this thesis.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis.  Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div></div></div>

We have been bullish on Snapchat since the pandemic began for the simple reason that coming out of recessions, “Do More with Less” thinking dominates constrained budgets for consumers and corporates alike, companies that can provide more (better ROI, lower friction, ease of use, etc) take share. Snapchat has increasingly strong ROI due to its lower costs vs. other online ad platforms. A 1m DAU miss and conservative guidance doesn't alter this thesis.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis.  Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

<p>We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to have the public markets fund an experiment in business models that may eventually breakeven on FCF at some point in the future. We said last quarter was Peak Netflix, and think this quarter confirmed our medium term short case on Netflix: <strong>Deceleration in Subscriber Growth, Rising Churn, and Rising FCF burn. </strong></p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis.  Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</strong></p></div>

We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to have the public markets fund an experiment in business models that may eventually breakeven on FCF at some point in the future. We said last quarter was Peak Netflix, and think this quarter confirmed our medium term short case on Netflix: Deceleration in Subscriber Growth, Rising Churn, and Rising FCF burn. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis.  Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<p>Considering the absence of breakdowns for the major indexes and for individual Sectors, along with the Fed covering investors’ backs, we continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe that the path of least resistance remains higher. In this report we outline our bullish case and highlight actionable opportunities across all 12 sectors.</p>

Considering the absence of breakdowns for the major indexes and for individual Sectors, along with the Fed covering investors’ backs, we continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe that the path of least resistance remains higher. In this report we outline our bullish case and highlight actionable opportunities across all 12 sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy - Bullish Outlook Intact

<div><p>This week we highlight the coming video game price hike, Slack's new acquisition strategy, Walmart's attempt to counter Amazon Prime, and a quick revisit on the Twitter subscription saga.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div></div></div>

This week we highlight the coming video game price hike, Slack's new acquisition strategy, Walmart's attempt to counter Amazon Prime, and a quick revisit on the Twitter subscription saga.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 7/​10/​​​​​2020

United States

Snap Inc. provides technology and social media services. The Company develops mobile camera application products and services that allow users to send and receive photos, drawings, text, and videos. Snap serves customers worldwide.

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Snap (SNAP US)

How Much Is TikTok Worth?

We walk through potential acquirers for TikTok and think while Disney and Snapchat stand the most to gain, Microsoft or Apple are the most likely...

Aaron Gabin

SNAP 2Q20: Snap up the Pullback

We have been bullish on Snapchat since the pandemic began for the simple reason that coming out of recessions, “Do More with Less” thinking...

Aaron Gabin

Netflix 2Q20 Caution: Deceleration Ahead

We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to...

Aaron Gabin

U.S. Equity Strategy - Bullish Outlook Intact

Considering the absence of breakdowns for the major indexes and for individual Sectors, along with the Fed covering investors’ backs, we continue...

Vermilion Research

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 7/10/2020

This week we highlight the coming video game price hike, Slack's new acquisition strategy, Walmart's attempt to counter Amazon Prime, and a quick...

Aaron Gabin

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

How Much Is TikTok Worth?

We walk through potential acquirers for TikTok and think while Disney and Snapchat stand the most to gain, Microsoft or Apple are the most likely...

Aaron Gabin

SNAP 2Q20: Snap up the Pullback

We have been bullish on Snapchat since the pandemic began for the simple reason that coming out of recessions, “Do More with Less” thinking...

Aaron Gabin

Netflix 2Q20 Caution: Deceleration Ahead

We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to...

Aaron Gabin

U.S. Equity Strategy - Bullish Outlook Intact

Considering the absence of breakdowns for the major indexes and for individual Sectors, along with the Fed covering investors’ backs, we continue...

Vermilion Research

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 7/​10/​​​​​2020

This week we highlight the coming video game price hike, Slack's new acquisition strategy, Walmart's attempt to counter Amazon Prime, and a quick...

Aaron Gabin

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 7/10/2020