TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The recently announced Meta Verified could generate an incremental $2.2B in revenues.</li>
<li>Incremental layoffs being reported could amount to $5B in incremental savings this year.</li>
<li>Between the two reports, we could easily see 10% upside to EPS.</li>
</ul>


The recently announced Meta Verified could generate an incremental $2.2B in revenues.
Incremental layoffs being reported could amount to $5B in incremental savings this year.
Between the two reports, we could easily see 10% upside to EPS.


<ul>
<li>MAUs grew just 5M or 1% QoQ while ARPU was flat. Little turnaround traction evident despite lots of empty statistics offered.</li>
<li>Longtime CFO Todd Morgenfeld departing, offers vague margin expansion promises.</li>
<li>Revenue and opex guidance for 1Q23 below consensus...not good for a consensus long.</li>
</ul>


MAUs grew just 5M or 1% QoQ while ARPU was flat. Little turnaround traction evident despite lots of empty statistics offered.
Longtime CFO Todd Morgenfeld departing, offers vague margin expansion promises.
Revenue and opex guidance for 1Q23 below consensus...not good for a consensus long.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Snap continued to encounter massive challenges due to increased competition and macroeconomic headwinds.</li><li>In the quarter, the company released communities to expand its content offerings and onboarded several new media partners.</li><li>The company has also launched new Snapchat+ features to increase audience engagement on the platform in the quarter.</li></ul>

Snap continued to encounter massive challenges due to increased competition and macroeconomic headwinds.In the quarter, the company released communities to expand its content offerings and onboarded several new media partners.The company has also launched new Snapchat+ features to increase audience engagement on the platform in the quarter.

Snap Inc: New Promotional Campaign & Other Developments

<ul>
<li>Meta lowered 2023 expense guide by $5B (or 5%)  to $89bn-$95bn and capex guide by $4B (or 11%) to $30bn-$33bn</li>
<li>Metaverse spending continues, META lost $4.3B on $700M in revenue this quarter and losses are expected to accelerate in 2023. </li>
<li>Zuck said the word efficiency 18x and AI 15x...Evidently, these are his priorities!</li>
</ul>


Meta lowered 2023 expense guide by $5B (or 5%)  to $89bn-$95bn and capex guide by $4B (or 11%) to $30bn-$33bn
Metaverse spending continues, META lost $4.3B on $700M in revenue this quarter and losses are expected to accelerate in 2023. 
Zuck said the word efficiency 18x and AI 15x...Evidently, these are his priorities!


Meta Platforms 4Q22: Zuckerberg Got Religion?

<ul>
<li>Pinterest has rallied 40% over the past 5 months on hopes that its new CEO Bill Ready will pivot the company from a pure advertising model to an ecommerce juggernaut.</li>
<li>Altering what consumers use online platforms for is exceedingly difficult and rarely succeeds: TripAdvisor, Yelp, Groupon, Stitchfix, eBay.</li>
<li>Ultimately, unless Pinterest convinces its users to more frequently utilize the platform, efforts to boost monetization will likely fall flat.</li>
</ul>


Pinterest has rallied 40% over the past 5 months on hopes that its new CEO Bill Ready will pivot the company from a pure advertising model to an ecommerce juggernaut.
Altering what consumers use online platforms for is exceedingly difficult and rarely succeeds: TripAdvisor, Yelp, Groupon, Stitchfix, eBay.
Ultimately, unless Pinterest convinces its users to more frequently utilize the platform, efforts to boost monetization will likely fall flat.


United States

Snap Inc. provides technology and social media services. The Company develops mobile camera application products and services that allow users to send and receive photos, drawings, text, and videos. Snap serves customers worldwide.

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Snap (SNAP US)

Meta Platforms: Even More Bullish

The recently announced Meta Verified could easily generate over $2B in revenues at very high incremental margins, while another 10K headcount cut...

Aaron Gabin

PINS 4Q22: We Don't Chase Vanity MAUs

Pinterest has become a consensus long on the hopes that its new CEO Bill Ready will pivot the company from a pure advertising model to an ecommerce...

Aaron Gabin

Snap Inc: New Promotional Campaign & Other Developments

Snap continued to encounter massive challenges due to increased competition and macroeconomic headwinds. In the quarter, the company released...

Baptista Research

Meta Platforms 4Q22: Zuckerberg Got Religion?

Meta is getting credited today with a "phase change" in operating cadence, with a newfound emphasis on efficiency and profitability. Great! But we...

Aaron Gabin

TMT Short Idea: Pinterest

Pinterest has been a sneaky strong TMT long for the past 6 months on hopes its new CEO Bill Ready will deliver the holy grail of ecommerce to the...

Aaron Gabin

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