TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Snowflake's largest customers consumption generated a massive beat on revenues and net revenue retention.</li>
<li>First quarter of positive EBIT and FCF shows operating leverage of this scaled business is starting to kick in.</li>
<li>Network effects look likely to start to juice growth as Snowflake rolls out new industry clouds.</li>
</ul>


Snowflake's largest customers consumption generated a massive beat on revenues and net revenue retention.
First quarter of positive EBIT and FCF shows operating leverage of this scaled business is starting to kick in.
Network effects look likely to start to juice growth as Snowflake rolls out new industry clouds.


Snowflake 3Q22 Earnings: The Abominable Snowman

Palantir Technologies  / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We continue to be baffled by Palantir. Rampant obfuscation in conference call answers, investor presentations, and the 10Q. The company is targeting $400MM in "adjusted free cash flow this year"...we have it about $530MM lower.</p><p>We remain short.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We continue to be baffled by Palantir. Rampant obfuscation in conference call answers, investor presentations, and the 10Q. The company is targeting $400MM in "adjusted free cash flow this year"...we have it about $530MM lower.We remain short.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/braze-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34773:1" rel="noopener">Braze Inc (BRZE US)</a> , the leading customer engagement platform and cloud-based SaaS unicorn, filed for a $100 million placeholder IPO with Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Barclays leading the offering. The company applied to list Class A common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker “BRZE”. Braze will have two classes of common stock: Class A shares and Class B shares, the so-called dual class structure of common stock. The company’s high profile customer list includes Delivery Hero, Grubhub, Burger King, DraftKings, IBM, Deliveroo, Intuit, and PayPal, among others. We have favorable view of the technology and Braze is well positioned to change how mobile marketing platforms approach customer engagement.</p>

Braze Inc (BRZE US) , the leading customer engagement platform and cloud-based SaaS unicorn, filed for a $100 million placeholder IPO with Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Barclays leading the offering. The company applied to list Class A common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker “BRZE”. Braze will have two classes of common stock: Class A shares and Class B shares, the so-called dual class structure of common stock. The company’s high profile customer list includes Delivery Hero, Grubhub, Burger King, DraftKings, IBM, Deliveroo, Intuit, and PayPal, among others. We have favorable view of the technology and Braze is well positioned to change how mobile marketing platforms approach customer engagement.

Braze IPO Preview: A World-Class Mobile Marketing Platform

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Snowflake has been one of the hottest tech stocks for the past few months.</li><li>The company continued its momentum in the second quarter with 103% year-on-year growth to $255 million in product revenues, reflecting strength in the company's consumption.</li><li>In the second quarter, customer product and financial services revenue grew over 100% year-on-year, representing the most considerable contribution, while healthcare customer product revenue increased around 200% wich was truly fantastic.</li></ul>

Snowflake has been one of the hottest tech stocks for the past few months.The company continued its momentum in the second quarter with 103% year-on-year growth to $255 million in product revenues, reflecting strength in the company's consumption.In the second quarter, customer product and financial services revenue grew over 100% year-on-year, representing the most considerable contribution, while healthcare customer product revenue increased around 200% wich was truly fantastic.

Snowflake Inc. - Invt Thesis, Financial & Price Forecasts, DCF Valuation- 10/21

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bairong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31486:1" rel="noopener">Bairong (6608 HK)</a> is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. It is the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China with a 9.0% revenue market share in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.</p><p>Bairong was listed on the HKEx on 31 March 2021 and raised net proceeds of HK$3,759.0 million at HK$31.80 per share. The shares currently trade 62% below their IPO price. Bairong priced its IPO at the market peak and the shares have collapsed in part due to China’s regulatory reset. </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> fell 15% on 5 August after a lockup expiry, as early backers headed for the exit amid fears of China’s widening online crackdown. The ongoing regulatory crackdown has alerted investors to the risk of upcoming expiring lockups.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Bairong’s pre-IPO investors’ lock-up period expires on 20 September. The cornerstones investors lock-up period expires on 30 September. In this note, we look at the returns of the pre-IPO investors and potential share sales post-lockup expiry.</p></div>

Bairong (6608 HK) is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. It is the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China with a 9.0% revenue market share in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.Bairong was listed on the HKEx on 31 March 2021 and raised net proceeds of HK$3,759.0 million at HK$31.80 per share. The shares currently trade 62% below their IPO price. Bairong priced its IPO at the market peak and the shares have collapsed in part due to China’s regulatory reset. Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) fell 15% on 5 August after a lockup expiry, as early backers headed for the exit amid fears of China’s widening online crackdown. The ongoing regulatory crackdown has alerted investors to the risk of upcoming expiring lockups.  Bairong’s pre-IPO investors’ lock-up period expires on 20 September. The cornerstones investors lock-up period expires on 30 September. In this note, we look at the returns of the pre-IPO investors and potential share sales post-lockup expiry.

United States

Snowflake Inc. provides software solutions. The Company develops database architecture, data warehouses, query optimization, and parallelization solutions. Snowflake serves customers worldwide.

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Snowflake (SNOW US)

Snowflake 3Q22 Earnings: The Abominable Snowman

Snowflake's strongest quarter since it went public, with rising net retention and outsized growth from its largest customers driving the...

Aaron Gabin

Palantir 3Q21 Earnings: We Buy Growth

We continue to be baffled by Palantir. The company is targeting $400MM in "adjusted free cash flow this year"...we have it about $530MM lower. We...

Aaron Gabin

Braze IPO Preview: A World-Class Mobile Marketing Platform

Mobile marketing technology unicorn Braze filed its S-1 with the SEC to go public as revenue growth accelerated and ARR surpassed $200M

Andrei Zakharov

Snowflake Inc. - Invt Thesis, Financial & Price Forecasts, DCF Valuation- 10/21

Snowflake has been one of the hottest tech stocks for the past few months. The company continued its momentum in the second quarter with 103%...

Baptista Research

Bairong: Upcoming Lock-Up Expiry

Bairong’s pre-IPO investors’ lock-up period expires on 20 September. In this note, we look at the returns of the pre-IPO investors and potential...

Arun George

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