Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - April 2021 - Lucror Analytics

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> is Southeast Asia’s leading superapp and the largest online delivery platform, ride-hailing platform and digital wallet payments platform in Southeast Asia, according to Euromonitor. Grab is backed by SoftBank Vision Fund (21.7% stake), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uber-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1" rel="noopener">Uber (UBER US)</a> (16.6%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH)</a> (8.7%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> (6.9%). Grab intends to go public in the US through a SPAC merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altimeter-growth-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33007:1" rel="noopener">Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US)</a>. The deal proceeds include more than $4.0 billion of fully committed PIPE led by $750 million from Altimeter Capital Management. Investors in the PIPE include BlackRock, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Fidelity International, FMR, Janus Henderson Investors, Mubadala, Nuveen, Permodalan Nasional Berhad and Temasek. Altimeter will commit to a three-year lock-up period for its sponsor promote shares. The deal values Grab at a post-money market cap of $39.6 billion and post-money EV of $31.3 billion. The deal implies 9.6x 2022 EV/Sales based on Grab’s forecasted adjusted net revenue. Post-close of the transaction, the existing Grab shareholders will represent 87.7% of outstanding shares. <div class="content-highlight">Over the years, Grab has transformed into a superapp that encompasses transactions related to transportation, eating, shopping, and digital payments. The transactions are high-frequency which tend to increase user stickiness. By spanning several categories, Grab has many opportunities to capture a user’s wallet spend. Grab is using its superapp status to deliver high-growth with declining loss margin and cash burn. While certain management forecasts seem bullish, the overall forecasts are not outlandish. We will look at Grab’s valuation in our next note.</div>

Grab (0967655D SP) is Southeast Asia’s leading superapp and the largest online delivery platform, ride-hailing platform and digital wallet payments platform in Southeast Asia, according to Euromonitor. Grab is backed by SoftBank Vision Fund (21.7% stake), Uber (UBER US) (16.6%), DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH) (8.7%) and Toyota Motor (7203 JP) (6.9%). Grab intends to go public in the US through a SPAC merger with Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US). The deal proceeds include more than $4.0 billion of fully committed PIPE led by $750 million from Altimeter Capital Management. Investors in the PIPE include BlackRock, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Fidelity International, FMR, Janus Henderson Investors, Mubadala, Nuveen, Permodalan Nasional Berhad and Temasek. Altimeter will commit to a three-year lock-up period for its sponsor promote shares. The deal values Grab at a post-money market cap of $39.6 billion and post-money EV of $31.3 billion. The deal implies 9.6x 2022 EV/Sales based on Grab’s forecasted adjusted net revenue. Post-close of the transaction, the existing Grab shareholders will represent 87.7% of outstanding shares. Over the years, Grab has transformed into a superapp that encompasses transactions related to transportation, eating, shopping, and digital payments. The transactions are high-frequency which tend to increase user stickiness. By spanning several categories, Grab has many opportunities to capture a user’s wallet spend. Grab is using its superapp status to deliver high-growth with declining loss margin and cash burn. While certain management forecasts seem bullish, the overall forecasts are not outlandish. We will look at Grab’s valuation in our next note.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

On 13th Apr 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> announced that it plans to go public in the US in partnership with Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US) at an equity valuation of US$39.6bn. It will raise around US$4.5bn cash through the transaction. In this note, I'll take a quick look at the numbers and implied valuations.

On 13th Apr 2021, Grab (0967655D SP) announced that it plans to go public in the US in partnership with Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC US) at an equity valuation of US$39.6bn. It will raise around US$4.5bn cash through the transaction. In this note, I'll take a quick look at the numbers and implied valuations.

Grab SPAC Listing - High on Ambition, Very High on Valuation

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Chinese property sector, including operational trends and regulatory developments, as well as an overview of the FY 2020 results of most developers under our full coverage. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Chinese property sector, including operational trends and regulatory developments, as well as an overview of the FY 2020 results of most developers under our full coverage.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Property Update (2021) - Lucror Analytics

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Outclassed By US Counterparts:Goldman Sachs &amp; Co. (GS.US) [Goldman], in typically fashion, always to seems to have the best information at the earliest possible instance, and as a result were able to act early and decisively – coming through the Archegos liquidations thus far relatively unscathed.  Other prime brokers, including Credit Suisse Group (CSGN.VX) [Credit Suisse] which didn’t have close to the full Archegos Capital Management picture, were caught with their pants down in what was supposed to be an orderly unwind descended into chaos; and  *Capital Implications Are Significant At Credit Suisse:The problem for Credit Suisse is the potential peak level of losses that likely will cause it to breach regulatory triggers. Several factors must still be adjusted from consensus forecasts: CHF 2.0 bn from Greensill (not including Sanjeev Gupta/GFG’ Liberty Commodities insolvency filing); CHF 2.0 bn Mozambique debt scandal; and the potential CHF 7.0 bn Archegos exposure.  In addition, operational risk weightings/capital requirements are likely to increase. In aggregate, we find that Credit Suisse’s CET1 would decline to 10.8% against the likely increased CET1 target and intimates a potential capital raise, dividend cut, and share buyback suspension.

*Outclassed By US Counterparts:Goldman Sachs &amp; Co. (GS.US) [Goldman], in typically fashion, always to seems to have the best information at the earliest possible instance, and as a result were able to act early and decisively – coming through the Archegos liquidations thus far relatively unscathed.  Other prime brokers, including Credit Suisse Group (CSGN.VX) [Credit Suisse] which didn’t have close to the full Archegos Capital Management picture, were caught with their pants down in what was supposed to be an orderly unwind descended into chaos; and  *Capital Implications Are Significant At Credit Suisse:The problem for Credit Suisse is the potential peak level of losses that likely will cause it to breach regulatory triggers. Several factors must still be adjusted from consensus forecasts: CHF 2.0 bn from Greensill (not including Sanjeev Gupta/GFG’ Liberty Commodities insolvency filing); CHF 2.0 bn Mozambique debt scandal; and the potential CHF 7.0 bn Archegos exposure.  In addition, operational risk weightings/capital requirements are likely to increase. In aggregate, we find that Credit Suisse’s CET1 would decline to 10.8% against the likely increased CET1 target and intimates a potential capital raise, dividend cut, and share buyback suspension.

Credit Suisse Group – Capital Raise Likely Coming

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp provides telecommunication services.  The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (ADR) (SFTBY US)

Asia HY Trade Book - April 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Grab SPAC Deal: Delivering the Goods

Grab has announced a SPAC merger with Altimeter Growth Corp which values Grab at a post-money market cap of $39.6 bn. We think that Grab has strong...

Arun George

Grab SPAC Listing - High on Ambition, Very High on Valuation

On 13th Apr 2021, Grab announced that it plans to go public in the US in partnership with Altimeter Growth Corp at an equity valuation of...

Sumeet Singh

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Property Update (2021) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Chinese property sector, including operational trends and regulatory...

Lucror Analytics

Credit Suisse Group – Capital Raise Likely Coming

CREDIT SUISSE GROUP: Credit Suisse didn’t have close to the full family office picture. Potential aggregate losses likely will cause it to breach...

Thomas J. Monaco

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