Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> revealed in early November the sale of all its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> stake. Softbank sold off for the entire month, losing 44% of its value.</li>
<li>The stock has remained flat since, and there is a lot of skepticism around SoftBank Group role as a major technology investor.</li>
<li>The stock appears to be bottoming, our model indicate it is short-term oversold (WEEKLY time period) so this may be a good opportunity to buy it at a discounted price.</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) revealed in early November the sale of all its NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) stake. Softbank sold off for the entire month, losing 44% of its value.
The stock has remained flat since, and there is a lot of skepticism around SoftBank Group role as a major technology investor.
The stock appears to be bottoming, our model indicate it is short-term oversold (WEEKLY time period) so this may be a good opportunity to buy it at a discounted price.


SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: Buying Opportunity Despite Overvaluation Concerns

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group, China Vanke</li>
<li>UST yields were mixed yesterday. The UST curve twisted slightly steeper, with the yield on the 2Y UST rising 2 bps to 3.48%, while the 10Y was unchanged at 4.00%. Equities rose for a fourth day, supported by a continued recovery in tech stocks. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq climbed 0.7% and 0.8% to 6,813 and 23,215, respectively.</li>
<li>The Fed Beige Book for November 2025 showed that overall consumer spending had declined further since the October report.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group, China Vanke
UST yields were mixed yesterday. The UST curve twisted slightly steeper, with the yield on the 2Y UST rising 2 bps to 3.48%, while the 10Y was unchanged at 4.00%. Equities rose for a fourth day, supported by a continued recovery in tech stocks. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq climbed 0.7% and 0.8% to 6,813 and 23,215, respectively.
The Fed Beige Book for November 2025 showed that overall consumer spending had declined further since the October report.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> crashed nearly -11% between Thursday and Friday close, reaching deeply oversold extremes. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group</a> has declined for three consecutive weeks, posting a cumulative -37% correction over this period.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group</a>'s entry into the Outliers zone suggests an extreme oversold condition—potentially creating a tactical long setup for risk-tolerant traders. 
</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) crashed nearly -11% between Thursday and Friday close, reaching deeply oversold extremes. 

Softbank Group has declined for three consecutive weeks, posting a cumulative -37% correction over this period.

Softbank Group's entry into the Outliers zone suggests an extreme oversold condition—potentially creating a tactical long setup for risk-tolerant traders. 



SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: Extremely Oversold After -11% Plunge

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> is swinging wildly. On Nov 11, the stock sank -13% after it said it had sold its entire stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA (NVDA US)</a>  for $5.83 billion.</li>
<li>The stock also posted record Q2 earnings on Nov 12, but closed the day down -3.46% (after a strong rally from the 21k bottom). Most gains come from OpenAI investment.</li>
<li>For sure it's not easy to hold this stock at the moment, this insight will analyze the next 2-3 weeks' outlook, support and resistance, according to our quantitative model.</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) is swinging wildly. On Nov 11, the stock sank -13% after it said it had sold its entire stake in NVIDIA (NVDA US)  for $5.83 billion.
The stock also posted record Q2 earnings on Nov 12, but closed the day down -3.46% (after a strong rally from the 21k bottom). Most gains come from OpenAI investment.
For sure it's not easy to hold this stock at the moment, this insight will analyze the next 2-3 weeks' outlook, support and resistance, according to our quantitative model.


SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: What's Next After NVDA Exit, Wild Swings, and Strong Earnings?

<ul>
<li>The US Senate passed a temporary funding measure after a 60-40 vote yesterday, backed by eight centrist Democrats.</li>
<li>The Bill will still require approval from the House and the signature of President Donald Trump. Mr Trump said yesterday that the US was "getting close" to a trade deal with India.</li>
<li>US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed concerns over high costs for consumers under the Trump administration, saying that it had inherited elevated price levels from the Biden administration, which he described as the worst in the past 40-50 years. </li>
</ul>


The US Senate passed a temporary funding measure after a 60-40 vote yesterday, backed by eight centrist Democrats.
The Bill will still require approval from the House and the signature of President Donald Trump. Mr Trump said yesterday that the US was "getting close" to a trade deal with India.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed concerns over high costs for consumers under the Trump administration, saying that it had inherited elevated price levels from the Biden administration, which he described as the worst in the past 40-50 years. 


Japan

SoftBank Group Corp provides telecommunication services.  The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (ADR) (SFTBY US)

SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: Buying Opportunity Despite Overvaluation Concerns

Softbank Group sold its entire NVIDIA stake in October and lost 44% of its value in November. Skepticism around its tech investor role has been...

Nico Rosti

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group, China Vanke

Lucror Analytics

SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: Extremely Oversold After -11% Plunge

Softbank Group (9984 JP) plunged nearly -11% last Friday, marking a -37% decline over three weeks. The extreme oversold conditions present a...

Nico Rosti

SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: What's Next After NVDA Exit, Wild Swings, and Strong Earnings?

Softbank is experiencing extreme volatility as of lately, plus it shocked investors with news of NVDA exit one day and record Q2 earnings the next...

Nico Rosti

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

The Bill will still require approval from the House and the signature of President Donald Trump. Mr Trump said yesterday that the US was "getting...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: Buying Opportunity Despite Overvaluation Concerns

​Softbank Group sold its entire NVIDIA stake in October and lost 44% of its value in November. Skepticism around its tech investor role has been...

Nico Rosti

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group, China Vanke

Lucror Analytics

SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: Extremely Oversold After -11% Plunge

​Softbank Group (9984 JP) plunged nearly -11% last Friday, marking a -37% decline over three weeks. The extreme oversold conditions present a...

Nico Rosti

SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: What's Next After NVDA Exit, Wild Swings, and Strong Earnings?

​Softbank is experiencing extreme volatility as of lately, plus it shocked investors with news of NVDA exit one day and record Q2 earnings the next...

Nico Rosti

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

The Bill will still require approval from the House and the signature of President Donald Trump. Mr Trump said yesterday that the US was "getting...

Lucror Analytics

Softbank Group sold its entire NVIDIA stake in October and lost 44% of its value in November. Skepticism around its tech investor role has been...

Softbank Group (9984 JP) plunged nearly -11% last Friday, marking a -37% decline over three weeks. The extreme oversold conditions present a...

Softbank is experiencing extreme volatility as of lately, plus it shocked investors with news of NVDA exit one day and record Q2 earnings the next...