Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

India focused: IPO, special situations, Stylus Holdings

Himanshu Dugar

India focused: IPO, special situations

Stylus Holdings

Stylus Holdings is a buy-side equity research firm. We offer bottom-up investment ideas as well as provide on demand equity research and portfolio tracking. 
At Stylus, our focus is to identify market dislocations that can generate 20+% IRR with a reasonable margin of safety. As part of our research process, we do a deep dive into the fundamentals of the company, evaluate their competitive positioning and assess their valuation.
Our investment team is led by Himanshu Dugar. Himanshu is a Chartered Accountant and a CFA charter holder. He has 10+ years of active experience in the stock market with stints at CRISIL Research, a S&P Global copmany and Miras Investments, a single family office based in Dubai.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Capital Markets

Dhoot Transmission Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>DTL leads the 2W/3W wiring harness segment (~41% overall share) and commands ~70% in EVs, structurally benefiting from 1.5–2.5x higher wiring content in electric platforms.</li>
<li>Bain Capital's backing and strategic global acquisitions enable expansion into higher-margin battery packs, sensors, and USB chargers, driving higher total content per vehicle.</li>
<li>Outperforming peers across growth, margins, and ROCE with a net cash balance sheet, DTL warrants a premium valuation, can it deliver more than just a listing pop?</li>
</ul>


DTL leads the 2W/3W wiring harness segment (~41% overall share) and commands ~70% in EVs, structurally benefiting from 1.5–2.5x higher wiring content in electric platforms.
Bain Capital's backing and strategic global acquisitions enable expansion into higher-margin battery packs, sensors, and USB chargers, driving higher total content per vehicle.
Outperforming peers across growth, margins, and ROCE with a net cash balance sheet, DTL warrants a premium valuation, can it deliver more than just a listing pop?


Dhoot Transmission - IPO Review - Can It Be the Next Motherson Sumi?

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Bagmane Prime Office REIT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bagmane-prime-office-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46266:1" rel="noopener">Bagmane Prime Office REIT (BPOR IN)</a> plans to raise around US$440m in its upcoming India IPO. It owns and manages premium Grade A+ business parks located in Bengaluru.</li>
<li>It represents a high-quality, institutionally-managed office REIT with strong asset quality, near-full occupancy, and embedded rental upside. Its balance sheet and acquisition pipeline provide support with moderate growth potential.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the firm’s historical performance.</li>
</ul>



Bagmane Prime Office REIT (BPOR IN) plans to raise around US$440m in its upcoming India IPO. It owns and manages premium Grade A+ business parks located in Bengaluru.
It represents a high-quality, institutionally-managed office REIT with strong asset quality, near-full occupancy, and embedded rental upside. Its balance sheet and acquisition pipeline provide support with moderate growth potential.
In this note, we talk about the firm’s historical performance.


Aequitas: Bagmane REIT Pre-IPO - Strong Yield Visibility Supported by Embedded Rental Growth

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Authum Investment & Infrastructure / Index Rebalance

Authum Investment & Infrastructure (AIIL IN)

<ul>
<li>With the review period now complete, there could be 15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 26.5bn (US$290m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>Removing the newly listed stocks and upward/downward migrations, the remaining potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions over the last 6 months. Near-term performance has suffered.</li>
</ul>


With the review period now complete, there could be 15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 26.5bn (US$290m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
Removing the newly listed stocks and upward/downward migrations, the remaining potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions over the last 6 months. Near-term performance has suffered.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

<ul>
<li>We forecast 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 3 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 15 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>From the new listings, 4 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 8 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.</li>
<li>SEBI has reclassified Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) as equity related instruments and REITs will be added to the AMFI classification from the upcoming review.</li>
</ul>


We forecast 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 3 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 15 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 4 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 8 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
SEBI has reclassified Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) as equity related instruments and REITs will be added to the AMFI classification from the upcoming review.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings and REIT Inclusion Drive Changes

India

Sona BLW Precision Forgings Ltd. (Sona Comstar) is a global mobility technology company that designs, manufactures, and supplies mission-critical systems and components for electrified and connected mobility. They offer a range of products including differential assemblies, precision forged bevel gears, conventional and micro-hybrid starter motors, and EV traction motors. The company is headquartered in Gurugram, India, and was founded in 1995.

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Sona Comstar (SONACOMS IN)

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Dhoot Transmission - IPO Review - Can It Be the Next Motherson Sumi?

DTL is a Tier-1 Auto ancillary supplying wiring harness to OEMs. It is a leader in e2W space and is expanding into higher-margin products with...

Himanshu Dugar

Aequitas: Bagmane REIT Pre-IPO - Strong Yield Visibility Supported by Embedded Rental Growth

Bagmane Prime Office Reit (BPOR) plans to raise around US$440m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the firm’s historical...

Akshat Shah

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

There could be 15 changes in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% and round-trip trade is INR 26.5bn. With over US$43bn tracking the index...

Brian Freitas

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings and REIT Inclusion Drive Changes

36 stocks could see size reclassification in Jan. 12 new stocks could be added to Large and Mid-cap. REITs will be added to the AMFI classification...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Dhoot Transmission - IPO Review - Can It Be the Next Motherson Sumi?

​DTL is a Tier-1 Auto ancillary supplying wiring harness to OEMs. It is a leader in e2W space and is expanding into higher-margin products with...

Himanshu Dugar

Aequitas: Bagmane REIT Pre-IPO - Strong Yield Visibility Supported by Embedded Rental Growth

Bagmane Prime Office Reit (BPOR) plans to raise around US$440m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the firm’s historical...

Akshat Shah

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

There could be 15 changes in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% and round-trip trade is INR 26.5bn. With over US$43bn tracking the index...

Brian Freitas

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings and REIT Inclusion Drive Changes

36 stocks could see size reclassification in Jan. 12 new stocks could be added to Large and Mid-cap. REITs will be added to the AMFI classification...

Brian Freitas

DTL is a Tier-1 Auto ancillary supplying wiring harness to OEMs. It is a leader in e2W space and is expanding into higher-margin products with...