Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KRX New Deal indices started on 1 May and will run till 31 July. Implementation is on 8 September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intellian-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34895:1" rel="noopener">Intellian Technologies (189300)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danal-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19682:1" rel="noopener">Danal Co Ltd (064260)</a> in the Internet index, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kmw-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2834:1" rel="noopener">KMW Co Ltd (032500 KS)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/afreecatv-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20163:1" rel="noopener">AfreecaTV (067160 KS)</a> in the top 3 index stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-games-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35967:1" rel="noopener">Nexon Games (225570 KS)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/devsisters-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14096:1" rel="noopener">Devsisters (194480 KS)</a> in the Game Index, though the flows are small on the stocks given the small benchmarked AUM.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KRX New Deal indices started on 1 May and will run till 31 July. Implementation is on 8 September.

Intellian Technologies (189300) could replace Danal Co Ltd (064260) in the Internet index, while KMW Co Ltd (032500 KS) could replace AfreecaTV (067160 KS) in the top 3 index stocks.

Nexon Games (225570 KS) could replace Devsisters (194480 KS) in the Game Index, though the flows are small on the stocks given the small benchmarked AUM.


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Buying on KMW; Selling on AfreecaTV

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>One Store revised its IPO filings, changing the comps but maintaining the same price range of 34,300 won to 41,700 won.</li>
<li>The bankers used new comps in the valuation analysis (Tencent, Naver, Kakao Corp, and Nexon). The P/S multiple is slightly higher than previously but IPO discount range is also higher.</li>
<li>Our target price of 48,713 won is 28% higher than the mid-point of the IPO price range of 38,000 won. </li>
</ul>


One Store revised its IPO filings, changing the comps but maintaining the same price range of 34,300 won to 41,700 won.
The bankers used new comps in the valuation analysis (Tencent, Naver, Kakao Corp, and Nexon). The P/S multiple is slightly higher than previously but IPO discount range is also higher.
Our target price of 48,713 won is 28% higher than the mid-point of the IPO price range of 38,000 won. 


One Store IPO: Changes Comps But Maintains Same IPO Price Range

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of OneStore is market cap of 1.3 trillion won and target price of 48,713 won per share (28% higher than the IPO mid-point price range).</li>
<li>Our valuation of the company is based on P/S multiple of 4.8x (average of the peers) using our estimated sales of 269 billion won for the company in 2022. </li>
<li>In our comparable companies valuation analysis, we have used the following four Korean companies as comps including Kakao Corp, Naver Corp (035420 KS), AfreecaTV (067160 KS), Kidari Studio (020120 KS).</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of OneStore is market cap of 1.3 trillion won and target price of 48,713 won per share (28% higher than the IPO mid-point price range).
Our valuation of the company is based on P/S multiple of 4.8x (average of the peers) using our estimated sales of 269 billion won for the company in 2022. 
In our comparable companies valuation analysis, we have used the following four Korean companies as comps including Kakao Corp, Naver Corp (035420 KS), AfreecaTV (067160 KS), Kidari Studio (020120 KS).


Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Three local indexes in Korea face rebalancing trading on March 10, supposedly at the close.</li>
<li>They are 1. KOSPI 200 Fast Entry for LG Energy Solution, 2. KOSPI Size Index Series biannual rebalancing, and 3. KRX BBIG K-New Deal biannual rebalancing.</li>
<li>There are 18 stocks in total, which have an estimated passive flow of ±0.5x ADTV &amp; an average daily trade value of +₩5.0B.</li>
</ul>


Three local indexes in Korea face rebalancing trading on March 10, supposedly at the close.
They are 1. KOSPI 200 Fast Entry for LG Energy Solution, 2. KOSPI Size Index Series biannual rebalancing, and 3. KRX BBIG K-New Deal biannual rebalancing.
There are 18 stocks in total, which have an estimated passive flow of ±0.5x ADTV &amp; an average daily trade value of +₩5.0B.


Combined Rebalancing Flow Estimations of Three Indexes in Korea on March 10

<ul>
<li>Those non-top three constituents in the battery index get to face more substantial outflow due to LG Chem's remaining in the index. They are Posco Chemical, SKC, and Iljin Materials.</li>
<li>It is still that AfreecaTV (067160 KS) and Douzone Bizon (012510 KS) are the ones with the most significant passive impacts, +1.73x and -2.67x ADTVs, respectively. </li>
<li>LG Energy Fast Entry will be implemented on the same day. The combined inflow should rise to +0.95x ADTV, substantial enough to deserve special attention.</li>
</ul>


Those non-top three constituents in the battery index get to face more substantial outflow due to LG Chem's remaining in the index. They are Posco Chemical, SKC, and Iljin Materials.
It is still that AfreecaTV (067160 KS) and Douzone Bizon (012510 KS) are the ones with the most significant passive impacts, +1.73x and -2.67x ADTVs, respectively. 
LG Energy Fast Entry will be implemented on the same day. The combined inflow should rise to +0.95x ADTV, substantial enough to deserve special attention.


KRX K-New Deal Rebalancing Announcement: Updated Weight Adjustments & Passive Flows

South Korea

Soop Co., Ltd. offers new media platform services. The Company provides digital media storage, streaming, downloading, video on demand, advertising services, and other services. Soop offers services in South Korea.

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Soop (067160 KS)

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Buying on KMW; Selling on AfreecaTV

The September rebalance of the KRX New Deal Indices could see buying on KMW & selling on AfreecaTV. There will be other changes too but the impact...

Brian Freitas

One Store IPO: Changes Comps But Maintains Same IPO Price Range

The bankers used new comps in the OneStore IPO valuation analysis (Tencent, Naver, Kakao Corp, and Nexon). The P/S multiple is slightly higher than...

Douglas Kim

OneStore IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of OneStore is market cap of 1.3 trillion won and target price of 48,713 won per share (28% higher than the IPO mid-point...

Douglas Kim

Combined Rebalancing Flow Estimations of Three Indexes in Korea on March 10

This post estimates the combined rebalancing flows of Korea's three local indexes, which should be seen on March 10, supposedly at the close.

Sanghyun Park

KRX K-New Deal Rebalancing Announcement: Updated Weight Adjustments & Passive Flows

KRX officially announced the K-New Deal rebalancing results. This post updates the estimations of weight adjustments and passive flows.

Sanghyun Park

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