Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>While the market remains in consolidation/pullback mode and we are not out of the woods, it is possible that further downside is limited from here on the S&amp;P 500</li>
<li>Since late-February, we've discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the SPX, with bulls in control if above 4983. Selling last week has simply filled this gap</li>
<li>4920-4950 is now support near last week's lows. Downgrade: Technology (XLK) to market weight. Upgrades: Manufacturing/Industrials (XLI) to overweight and Utilities (XLU) to market weight; individual stock buys highlighted.</li>
</ul>


While the market remains in consolidation/pullback mode and we are not out of the woods, it is possible that further downside is limited from here on the S&amp;P 500
Since late-February, we've discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the SPX, with bulls in control if above 4983. Selling last week has simply filled this gap
4920-4950 is now support near last week's lows. Downgrade: Technology (XLK) to market weight. Upgrades: Manufacturing/Industrials (XLI) to overweight and Utilities (XLU) to market weight; individual stock buys highlighted.


Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

Charts Highlighted: XLE, RYE, WTI Crude Oil, XLF, XLB, XLI, RCD, EEM, XLU, XLP, AWK, AEE, WMT, PEP, NUE, STLD, X, CMC, SMSMY, SCHN, RYI, TMST, MT, TX, MTL, ETR, FTS, CMS, CNP, LNT, NI, OGE, BKH, NEE, DUK, SO, and AEPCyclical value areas including Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and equal-weighted Discretionary display short-term improvement as interest rates show signs of a potential bottom at 1.13%. This is encouraging, however we are still neutral yet constructive overall. As we noted last week, we need to see the 10-year Treasury yield breach, and hold above, 1.45%, as well as sustained price improvement by small-caps (i.e., IWM above $234.50) before we can declare a new broad-based bull market.

Charts Highlighted: XLE, RYE, WTI Crude Oil, XLF, XLB, XLI, RCD, EEM, XLU, XLP, AWK, AEE, WMT, PEP, NUE, STLD, X, CMC, SMSMY, SCHN, RYI, TMST, MT, TX, MTL, ETR, FTS, CMS, CNP, LNT, NI, OGE, BKH, NEE, DUK, SO, and AEPCyclical value areas including Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and equal-weighted Discretionary display short-term improvement as interest rates show signs of a potential bottom at 1.13%. This is encouraging, however we are still neutral yet constructive overall. As we noted last week, we need to see the 10-year Treasury yield breach, and hold above, 1.45%, as well as sustained price improvement by small-caps (i.e., IWM above $234.50) before we can declare a new broad-based bull market.

10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buying Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Steel Stocks

A breakout late last week in the high yield spread over 10-year Treasuries can now be added to the already long list of concerns we have for the market. Continued volatility remains our expectation, and it is becoming increasingly likely that the February 2018 lows will be tested, with new YTD lows a very real possibility.  In today’s report we reiterate our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups within Utilities and Financials.

A breakout late last week in the high yield spread over 10-year Treasuries can now be added to the already long list of concerns we have for the market. Continued volatility remains our expectation, and it is becoming increasingly likely that the February 2018 lows will be tested, with new YTD lows a very real possibility.  In today’s report we reiterate our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups within Utilities and Financials.

U.S. Equity Strategy: How Much Worse Can It Get?

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies

Uzabase

Specialising in Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies with a focus on rigorous, but targeted quantitative analysis to temper evaluations of company strategy, potential and vision. At Uzabase, our team of analysts provides coverage of industry dynamics with a local Asian flavour on Speeda, our financial information platform. Going forward we are aiming to channel our focus toward thematic research on emerging industries and company research.

Equity Bottom-Up

It seems like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/637" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> 's threat to bar <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1094" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1094:1">Western Digital Corp (WDC US)</a>'s engineers from the JV Yokkaichi plant from today has provoked a stern response as WDC has filed for arbitration with the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC). This move would make it significantly harder for Toshiba to avoid delisting as the arbitration process would eat up significant time (potentially up to a year), delaying the sale process and jeopardising Toshiba's ability to return to positive equity…

It seems like Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) 's threat to bar Western Digital Corp (WDC US)'s engineers from the JV Yokkaichi plant from today has provoked a stern response as WDC has filed for arbitration with the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC). This move would make it significantly harder for Toshiba to avoid delisting as the arbitration process would eat up significant time (potentially up to a year), delaying the sale process and jeopardising Toshiba's ability to return to positive equity…

Toshiba/WDC Relationship Deteriorates as ICC Arbitration Sought; Southern Takes Over Georgia Plants

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/637" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> stock has rallied about 35% since the 16th of March as news of a large stake purchase by Effisimo Capital, Westinghouse's bankruptcy filing and a high bid of JPY2 trillion for its chip business have cheered investors. While these factors are all positive for the stock, we feel that the extent of the rally is overdone and that much of the good news is starting to be priced in as a done-deal despite significant uncertainty remaining. We thus feel that risk-reward is once…

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) stock has rallied about 35% since the 16th of March as news of a large stake purchase by Effisimo Capital, Westinghouse's bankruptcy filing and a high bid of JPY2 trillion for its chip business have cheered investors. While these factors are all positive for the stock, we feel that the extent of the rally is overdone and that much of the good news is starting to be priced in as a done-deal despite significant uncertainty remaining. We thus feel that risk-reward is once…

Who Will Bear the Brunt of Westinghouse's Bankruptcy?

United States

The Southern Company is a public utility holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, generates, wholesales, and retails electricity in the southeastern United States. The Company also offers wireless telecommunications services, and provides businesses with two-way radio, telephone, paging, and Internet access services as well as wholesales fiber optic solutions.

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Southern Co/The (SO US)

Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities

Shift Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Tech to market weight $XLK; Upgrading Industrials $XLI to Overweight; Upgrading Utilities $XLU to...

Vermilion Research

10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buying Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Steel Stocks

Cyclical value areas are improving, but so are defensives. In order to get more bullish, we need to see the 10-year Treasury yield break above...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: How Much Worse Can It Get?

A breakout late last week in the high yield spread over 10-year Treasuries can now be added to the already long list of concerns we have for the...

Vermilion Research

Toshiba/WDC Relationship Deteriorates as ICC Arbitration Sought; Southern Takes Over Georgia Plants

It seems like Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) 's threat to bar Western Digital Corp (WDC US)'s engineers from the JV Yokkaichi plant from today has provoked...

Mio Kato

Who Will Bear the Brunt of Westinghouse's Bankruptcy?

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) stock has rallied about 35% since the 16th of March as news of a large stake purchase by Effisimo Capital, Westinghouse's...

Mio Kato

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