Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>If you have even a remote interest in the stock market (and if not, why the heck are you reading my newsletter?), then it has probably not escaped your attention that we have recently witnessed the largest IPO in history, with SpaceX raising $75B at a valuation of $1.8T.</li><li>As of mid-June, the stock has risen almost 50%, meaning SpaceX's market value has now crossed $2.5T, a valuation of over 130x revenues. Yes, you read that right.</li><li>Not only does the valuation seem outright outrageous, but the company's value proposition for creating shareholder value also reads somewhat vaguely.</li></ul>

If you have even a remote interest in the stock market (and if not, why the heck are you reading my newsletter?), then it has probably not escaped your attention that we have recently witnessed the largest IPO in history, with SpaceX raising $75B at a valuation of $1.8T.As of mid-June, the stock has risen almost 50%, meaning SpaceX's market value has now crossed $2.5T, a valuation of over 130x revenues. Yes, you read that right.Not only does the valuation seem outright outrageous, but the company's value proposition for creating shareholder value also reads somewhat vaguely.

Stock Picking & Investing, BluSuit

BluSuit

Stock Picking & Investing

Financial markets, high growth & innovative business coverage, macro economics, trading strategy and market insight

<ul><li>I have been thinking a lot more about space lately.</li><li>Not in the vague, sci-fi way where every chart goes up and every company with a rocket render becomes investable. That is usually how people lose money in frontier markets.</li><li>The farther away the revenue is, the easier it becomes to confuse imagination for underwriting.</li></ul>

I have been thinking a lot more about space lately.Not in the vague, sci-fi way where every chart goes up and every company with a rocket render becomes investable. That is usually how people lose money in frontier markets.The farther away the revenue is, the easier it becomes to confuse imagination for underwriting.

Hedge Fund News, Information and Data, Hedge Fund Alpha

Hedge Fund Alpha

Hedge Fund News, Information and Data

We focus on hedge funds with a bias towards emerging managers, specifically fundamental long-short managers. We are known for a lot of insights and exclusives on hedge fund letters, coverage of industry conferences, and interviews with investors and interesting service providers.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Green Ash Horizon Fund fell 10.02% in July, sharply underperforming the MSCI World’s 0.51% gain as a broad momentum unwind hit technology and AI-related stocks.</li><li>The sell-off proved particularly severe in semiconductors, which fell 20% after gaining 88% over the preceding three months.</li><li>Despite the correction, hedge fund manager James Sanders remains constructive on the fundamental outlook and continues to see strong long-term potential in AI infrastructure.</li></ul>

Green Ash Horizon Fund fell 10.02% in July, sharply underperforming the MSCI World’s 0.51% gain as a broad momentum unwind hit technology and AI-related stocks.The sell-off proved particularly severe in semiconductors, which fell 20% after gaining 88% over the preceding three months.Despite the correction, hedge fund manager James Sanders remains constructive on the fundamental outlook and continues to see strong long-term potential in AI infrastructure.

Green Ash Horizon Fund Falls 10% in July as AI and Semiconductor Momentum Reverses

Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>July was a month of market mean reversion; stocks that were up more than 100% in the first half, fell back an average of 25% in July, while stocks that were down more than 50% rallied by an average of 11%.</li><li>In most cases, this still left the longer term themes intact, but for those who live and die by monthly returns it is fair to say it was a tough month.</li><li>The biggest hits came in the crowded tech hardware stocks, where we discovered at the end of the month one particularly large and heavily leveraged fund was forced into a dramatic unwind.</li></ul>

July was a month of market mean reversion; stocks that were up more than 100% in the first half, fell back an average of 25% in July, while stocks that were down more than 50% rallied by an average of 11%.In most cases, this still left the longer term themes intact, but for those who live and die by monthly returns it is fair to say it was a tough month.The biggest hits came in the crowded tech hardware stocks, where we discovered at the end of the month one particularly large and heavily leveraged fund was forced into a dramatic unwind.

Independent Investment Research & Investor, Maverick Equity Research

Maverick Equity Research

Independent Investment Research & Investor

Independent Investment Research & Investor: value, dividend and growth stocks. Risk management & hedging for an all weather portfolio.

<ul><li>SpaceX (SPCX) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK), naturally not an apples to apples comparison, but a very ‘valuation’ kind of comparison and food for thought.</li><li>To begin with, when SpaceX IPO-ed, many of you will recall this chart that I posted:</li><li>SpaceX (SPCX) at $2.1 trillion market capitalisation. Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) at $1.05 market cap</li></ul>

SpaceX (SPCX) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK), naturally not an apples to apples comparison, but a very ‘valuation’ kind of comparison and food for thought.To begin with, when SpaceX IPO-ed, many of you will recall this chart that I posted:SpaceX (SPCX) at $2.1 trillion market capitalisation. Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) at $1.05 market cap

SpaceX & Berkshire, Fair Isaac, Blackrock, Margin Loans + S&P 500 ATHs & Valuation

United States

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., doing business as SpaceX, operates as an aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company. The Company designs and manufactures rockets, human spaceflight, and global satellite internet services. SpaceX serves customers worldwide.

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SpaceX (SPCX US)

RW-06-26: To the Moon! (And Back?)

If you have even a remote interest in the stock market (and if not, why the heck are you reading my newsletter?), then it has probably not escaped...

Contrarian Cashflows

The Next S-Curve May Leave Earth

Not in the vague, sci-fi way where every chart goes up and every company with a rocket render becomes investable. That is usually how people lose...

BluSuit

Green Ash Horizon Fund Falls 10% in July as AI and Semiconductor Momentum Reverses

Green Ash Horizon Fund fell 10.02% in July, sharply underperforming the MSCI World’s 0.51% gain as a broad momentum unwind hit technology and...

Hedge Fund Alpha

Thanks for the Memory..

July was a month of market mean reversion; stocks that were up more than 100% in the first half, fell back an average of 25% in July, while stocks...

Mark Tinker

SpaceX & Berkshire, Fair Isaac, Blackrock, Margin Loans + S&P 500 ATHs & Valuation

SpaceX (SPCX) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK), naturally not an apples to apples comparison, but a very ‘valuation’ kind of comparison and food for...

Maverick Equity Research

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