Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>If you have even a remote interest in the stock market (and if not, why the heck are you reading my newsletter?), then it has probably not escaped your attention that we have recently witnessed the largest IPO in history, with SpaceX raising $75B at a valuation of $1.8T.</li><li>As of mid-June, the stock has risen almost 50%, meaning SpaceX's market value has now crossed $2.5T, a valuation of over 130x revenues. Yes, you read that right.</li><li>Not only does the valuation seem outright outrageous, but the company's value proposition for creating shareholder value also reads somewhat vaguely.</li></ul>

If you have even a remote interest in the stock market (and if not, why the heck are you reading my newsletter?), then it has probably not escaped your attention that we have recently witnessed the largest IPO in history, with SpaceX raising $75B at a valuation of $1.8T.As of mid-June, the stock has risen almost 50%, meaning SpaceX's market value has now crossed $2.5T, a valuation of over 130x revenues. Yes, you read that right.Not only does the valuation seem outright outrageous, but the company's value proposition for creating shareholder value also reads somewhat vaguely.

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Nasdaq 100 index tracks the 100 largest names listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>There are two pending M&amp;A deals on track to trigger deletions before the September rebalance, but no room for intra-review replacements with membership already at 102.</li>
<li>We expect no changes at the September 2026 indexx rebal event, though the increase in SpaceX free float weight, should still drive roughly US$19bn of one way flow.</li>
</ul>


The Nasdaq 100 index tracks the 100 largest names listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange.
There are two pending M&amp;A deals on track to trigger deletions before the September rebalance, but no room for intra-review replacements with membership already at 102.
We expect no changes at the September 2026 indexx rebal event, though the increase in SpaceX free float weight, should still drive roughly US$19bn of one way flow.


Quiddity Leaderboard Nasdaq100 Sep26 Rebal: No Changes, Flow Driven by SpaceX Free Float Upweight

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

Private Capital Markets

<ul><li>Sacra estimates SpaceX generated $18.7B in revenue in 2025, up 43% YoY from $13.1B in 2024.</li><li>The listing reached a post-IPO valuation of $2.3 trillion.</li><li>In February 2026, SpaceX acquired xAI in an all-stock deal valued at approximately $1.25 trillion combined.</li></ul>

Sacra estimates SpaceX generated $18.7B in revenue in 2025, up 43% YoY from $13.1B in 2024.The listing reached a post-IPO valuation of $2.3 trillion.In February 2026, SpaceX acquired xAI in an all-stock deal valued at approximately $1.25 trillion combined.

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>SpaceX is public but relatively unknown in terms of market knowledge on the industry due to the complexity of its business across communication systems, AI, space transport,  social networks.</li>
<li>This insight discusses the investment potential from this point on post IPO volatility for SpaceX.  We explore the use of put options as a strategic volatility trade.  </li>
<li>Governance, execution, and regulatory risks are transparently disclosed with SpaceX treated as a mature company. Planned satellite business expansions may be closer to deployment than consensus estimates are pricing in. </li>
</ul>


SpaceX is public but relatively unknown in terms of market knowledge on the industry due to the complexity of its business across communication systems, AI, space transport,  social networks.
This insight discusses the investment potential from this point on post IPO volatility for SpaceX.  We explore the use of put options as a strategic volatility trade.  
Governance, execution, and regulatory risks are transparently disclosed with SpaceX treated as a mature company. Planned satellite business expansions may be closer to deployment than consensus estimates are pricing in. 


Trading the SpaceX Nasdaq-100 Rebalance: Capitalizing on Elevated Post-IPO Volatility

<ul>
<li>The June 2026 index review results for the Nasdaq 100 were announced after market close on 11 June 2026.</li>
<li>There are 5 ADD/DELs for the Nasdaq 100 for Jun26 index rebal event as we predicted (we predicted all of them correctly).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes.</li>
</ul>


The June 2026 index review results for the Nasdaq 100 were announced after market close on 11 June 2026.
There are 5 ADD/DELs for the Nasdaq 100 for Jun26 index rebal event as we predicted (we predicted all of them correctly).
In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes.


Quiddity Nasdaq 100 Jun26 Results: First Rebalance Under New Methodology Sees 10 Changes

United States

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., doing business as SpaceX, operates as an aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company. The Company designs and manufactures rockets, human spaceflight, and global satellite internet services. SpaceX serves customers worldwide.

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SpaceX (SPCX US)

RW-06-26: To the Moon! (And Back?)

If you have even a remote interest in the stock market (and if not, why the heck are you reading my newsletter?), then it has probably not escaped...

Contrarian Cashflows

Quiddity Leaderboard Nasdaq100 Sep26 Rebal: No Changes, Flow Driven by SpaceX Free Float Upweight

$8.5bn SpaceX inclusion flow, adds $19bn more on free float upweight. Pending EA/WBD deletions won't open slots for new adds as member count...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Primer: SpaceX - 02 Jul 2026

Rocket and satellite company offering low-cost launches and global internet via Starlink

Sacra

Trading the SpaceX Nasdaq-100 Rebalance: Capitalizing on Elevated Post-IPO Volatility

Can SpaceX be both a space company and an AI company? Is it really both? This insight highlights aspects of the SpaceX filings, and an option...

Jay Cameron

Quiddity Nasdaq 100 Jun26 Results: First Rebalance Under New Methodology Sees 10 Changes

Nasdaq confirmed the fast-entry addition of SpaceX to the Nasdaq 100 after the close on 26 June 2026, precisely in line with our timeline....

Anjana Amarasuriya

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