Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US LEI release for December signals a weakening US economy</li>
<li>The annual growth rate of US LEI is deeply negative</li>
<li>December Taiwan Export Orders contract sharply indicating slower growth worldwide</li>
</ul>


US LEI release for December signals a weakening US economy
The annual growth rate of US LEI is deeply negative
December Taiwan Export Orders contract sharply indicating slower growth worldwide


Data Points to Continuing Signs of a Slowing US Economy

<ul>
<li>Recent US economic data has been mixed on the inflation/growth front. </li>
<li>Fed dot plot and messaging at odds with market expectations.</li>
<li>The extent of rate cuts is correct, but timing is likely not.</li>
</ul>


Recent US economic data has been mixed on the inflation/growth front. 
Fed dot plot and messaging at odds with market expectations.
The extent of rate cuts is correct, but timing is likely not.


US Interest Rates and the Dollar and Impact on Markets

<ul>
<li>The December US Employment report shows a weaker outlook than the headline suggests.  </li>
<li>A loss of over 1.5 million full-time jobs in December.</li>
<li>Excluding government jobs, an exceptionally low number of new full-time jobs were created over the last year.</li>
</ul>


The December US Employment report shows a weaker outlook than the headline suggests.  
A loss of over 1.5 million full-time jobs in December.
Excluding government jobs, an exceptionally low number of new full-time jobs were created over the last year.


US Employment Data Confirms a Weakening Economy

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Global Liquidity cycle is rising and set to hit a peak sometime around late-2025. This is bullish for risk assets</li>
<li>The timing of the recovery from October 2022 aligns with past cycles, but its scale is far less. Things need to speed up.</li>
<li>The US Fed has been a key culprit in keeping liquidity conditions too tight for too long. 2024 will see a significant ease from US policy-makers</li>
</ul>



Global Liquidity cycle is rising and set to hit a peak sometime around late-2025. This is bullish for risk assets
The timing of the recovery from October 2022 aligns with past cycles, but its scale is far less. Things need to speed up.
The US Fed has been a key culprit in keeping liquidity conditions too tight for too long. 2024 will see a significant ease from US policy-makers


Thinking About, Thinking About Central Banks ... And Liquidity

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.</li><li>We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.</li><li>Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.</li></ul>

We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.

United States

SPDR Gold Shares is an investment fund incorporated in the USA.  The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust's expenses. The Trust holds gold and is expected from time to time to issue Baskets in exchange for deposits of gold and to distribute gold in connection with redemptions of Baskets.

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SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)

Data Points to Continuing Signs of a Slowing US Economy

US LEI for December shows a weakening economy with a deeply negative annual growth rate, while Taiwan Export Orders contract sharply, signaling...

Rikki Malik

US Interest Rates and the Dollar and Impact on Markets

Recent mixed US economic data on inflation and growth, has reduced interest rate cut expectations but we believe the path to US lower interest...

Rikki Malik

US Employment Data Confirms a Weakening Economy

The December US Employment report reveals a bleaker outlook with a significant loss of full-time jobs and a low creation rate of new full-time...

Rikki Malik

Thinking About, Thinking About Central Banks ... And Liquidity

US Fed has been a key culprit in keeping liquidity conditions too tight, too long. 2024 will see major ease from US policy-makers. Global Liquidity...

Michael J. Howell

Five Things We Watch For In 2024

The thing to watch is probably employment numbers and once the labor markets start turning bad, expect CBs to cut in a hurry (especially if it is...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Data Points to Continuing Signs of a Slowing US Economy

​US LEI for December shows a weakening economy with a deeply negative annual growth rate, while Taiwan Export Orders contract sharply, signaling...

Rikki Malik

US Interest Rates and the Dollar and Impact on Markets

Recent mixed US economic data on inflation and growth, has reduced interest rate cut expectations but we believe the path to US lower interest...

Rikki Malik

US Employment Data Confirms a Weakening Economy

​The December US Employment report reveals a bleaker outlook with a significant loss of full-time jobs and a low creation rate of new full-time...

Rikki Malik

Thinking About, Thinking About Central Banks ... And Liquidity

US Fed has been a key culprit in keeping liquidity conditions too tight, too long. 2024 will see major ease from US policy-makers. Global Liquidity...

Michael J. Howell

Five Things We Watch For In 2024

The thing to watch is probably employment numbers and once the labor markets start turning bad, expect CBs to cut in a hurry (especially if it is...

Steno Research

US LEI for December shows a weakening economy with a deeply negative annual growth rate, while Taiwan Export Orders contract sharply, signaling...

The December US Employment report reveals a bleaker outlook with a significant loss of full-time jobs and a low creation rate of new full-time...