Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Asymmetric return opportunity in a short position in Japan - downside vs upside potential is skewed to the downside.</li>
<li>The weak JPY hasn’t helped the overall market and rising risk of a reversal similar to August 2024</li>
<li>We look at some sectors and stocks that are good short candidates</li>
</ul>


Asymmetric return opportunity in a short position in Japan - downside vs upside potential is skewed to the downside.
The weak JPY hasn’t helped the overall market and rising risk of a reversal similar to August 2024
We look at some sectors and stocks that are good short candidates


Tactical Trading - Time to Sell Japan. Again.

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Gold has staged a relative breakout against the S&amp;P 500 and 60/40 portfolio is a signal of financial stress ahead and an era of hard asset outperformance against paper assets.</li>
<li>While we are long-term bulls on gold, it is highly extended and investors seeking to deploy cash into this investment theme should consider the energy sector as an alternative.</li>
<li>Our base-case scenario calls for a tactical recovery in stock prices into April. What happens next will depend on the evolution of economic data.</li>
</ul>


Gold has staged a relative breakout against the S&amp;P 500 and 60/40 portfolio is a signal of financial stress ahead and an era of hard asset outperformance against paper assets.
While we are long-term bulls on gold, it is highly extended and investors seeking to deploy cash into this investment theme should consider the energy sector as an alternative.
Our base-case scenario calls for a tactical recovery in stock prices into April. What happens next will depend on the evolution of economic data.


The Message From Gold's Generational Breakout

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>Indian market has discounted some of the issues the country faces </li>
<li>The best performing assets in Q1 2025 continue to be our favourites</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
Indian market has discounted some of the issues the country faces 
The best performing assets in Q1 2025 continue to be our favourites


Overview #21 India, Gold and the Slow Death of AI

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SP500 has enjoyed a prolonged period of outperformance against its international peers.</li>
<li>This year’s political shift and new policy actions could challenge long-held investment assumptions.</li>
<li>We examine the SP500’s performance relative to a range of international indexes and assets.</li>
</ul>


The SP500 has enjoyed a prolonged period of outperformance against its international peers.
This year’s political shift and new policy actions could challenge long-held investment assumptions.
We examine the SP500’s performance relative to a range of international indexes and assets.


USA Against ROW: Trends in Global Market Leadership

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The United States' tariff against Mexico and Canada, effective March 4, 2025, could disrupt global markets, with potential volatility spikes similar to early February's events.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ftse-100-index-ukx" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22904:1" rel="noopener">FTSE 100</a>: low implied volatility offers opportunities for protective puts, </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>: an volatility premium suggests a relative value volatility arbitrage play. </li>
</ul>


The United States' tariff against Mexico and Canada, effective March 4, 2025, could disrupt global markets, with potential volatility spikes similar to early February's events.

S&amp;P/ASX 200 and FTSE 100: low implied volatility offers opportunities for protective puts, 

KOSPI 200 and Nikkei 225: an volatility premium suggests a relative value volatility arbitrage play. 


Global Option Implied Volatility - Opportunities in S&P/ASX 200, KOSPI 200, Nikkei 225, FTSE 100.

United States

SPDR Gold Shares is an investment fund incorporated in the USA.  The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust's expenses. The Trust holds gold and is expected from time to time to issue Baskets in exchange for deposits of gold and to distribute gold in connection with redemptions of Baskets.

Price Gauge
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SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)

Tactical Trading - Time to Sell Japan. Again.

It's the perfect storm for the Japanese market. Tariffs, JPY, rising rates and inflation, with growth weakening. The 2,800 level on Topix has been...

Rikki Malik

The Message From Gold's Generational Breakout

Gold's breakout against S&P 500 signals financial stress ahead, consider energy sector as alternative investment. Tactical stock recovery expected...

Cam Hui

Overview #21 India, Gold and the Slow Death of AI

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Revisiting India, our top 2 allocations and the ongoing US bear market

Rikki Malik

USA Against ROW: Trends in Global Market Leadership

The SP500's outperformance may face challenges due to political shifts and new policies, prompting a reevaluation of investment assumptions.

John Ley

Global Option Implied Volatility - Opportunities in S&P/ASX 200, KOSPI 200, Nikkei 225, FTSE 100.

US tariffs on Mexico and Canada effective 4 March as a potentially adverse market event. S&P/ASX 200 and FTSE 100 offer protective put opportunities.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tactical Trading - Time to Sell Japan. Again.

It's the perfect storm for the Japanese market. Tariffs, JPY, rising rates and inflation, with growth weakening. The 2,800 level on Topix has been...

Rikki Malik

The Message From Gold's Generational Breakout

​Gold's breakout against S&P 500 signals financial stress ahead, consider energy sector as alternative investment. Tactical stock recovery expected...

Cam Hui

Overview #21 India, Gold and the Slow Death of AI

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Revisiting India, our top 2 allocations and the ongoing US bear market

Rikki Malik

USA Against ROW: Trends in Global Market Leadership

​The SP500's outperformance may face challenges due to political shifts and new policies, prompting a reevaluation of investment assumptions.

John Ley

Global Option Implied Volatility - Opportunities in S&P/ASX 200, KOSPI 200, Nikkei 225, FTSE 100.

​US tariffs on Mexico and Canada effective 4 March as a potentially adverse market event. S&P/ASX 200 and FTSE 100 offer protective put opportunities.

Gaudenz Schneider

Gold's breakout against S&P 500 signals financial stress ahead, consider energy sector as alternative investment. Tactical stock recovery expected...

The SP500's outperformance may face challenges due to political shifts and new policies, prompting a reevaluation of investment assumptions.

US tariffs on Mexico and Canada effective 4 March as a potentially adverse market event. S&P/ASX 200 and FTSE 100 offer protective put opportunities.