Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate how this probability distribution will move over time.</li><li>In other words, you don’t need to be necessarily right on what happens next but just be able to grasp how market consensus will move from here.</li><li>Ignoring this simple principle has been a very expensive exercise for European fixed income investors over the last few weeks: the-ECB-will-never-really-hike mantra is melting under the eyes of bond investors married to a dovish narrative which has been successful for a decade but offers a very bad risk-reward today.</li></ul>

Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate how this probability distribution will move over time.In other words, you don’t need to be necessarily right on what happens next but just be able to grasp how market consensus will move from here.Ignoring this simple principle has been a very expensive exercise for European fixed income investors over the last few weeks: the-ECB-will-never-really-hike mantra is melting under the eyes of bond investors married to a dovish narrative which has been successful for a decade but offers a very bad risk-reward today.

The Biggest Macro Risk You Might Be Ignoring

Research on International Stock Ideas, Value Punks

Value Punks

Research on International Stock Ideas

Value Punks’ mission is to deliver institutional-grade research on international stock ideas in a digestible, reader-friendly format.

At Value Punks, we blend our background in traditional value-investing with an openness to embrace a constantly and rapidly evolving investment and business landscape.

Institutional-Grade Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>International investing is a lot of work. It can also be uncomfortable. Importantly, international stocks have underperformed since GFC</li><li>It has become really hard for international mandates to justify their existence</li><li>Having been in the trenches in international markets for over a decade we believe this is the optimal time to allocate capital to international ideas.</li></ul>

International investing is a lot of work. It can also be uncomfortable. Importantly, international stocks have underperformed since GFCIt has become really hard for international mandates to justify their existenceHaving been in the trenches in international markets for over a decade we believe this is the optimal time to allocate capital to international ideas.

Following Great Public Companies, Watchlist Investing

Watchlist Investing

Following Great Public Companies

Exploring timeless investing concepts in the search for great businesses.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Standard and Poor’s website provides some interesting raw data on the index, open for anyone to see</li>
<li>The price/earnings ratio continues a multi-year climb. Excluding the pandemic year of 2020, at 22.7x trailing twelve-month earnings, it is the highest ratio in the periods under analysis</li>
<li>The balance sheet of the S&amp;P 500 as a whole continues to deteriorate</li>
</ul>


The Standard and Poor’s website provides some interesting raw data on the index, open for anyone to see
The price/earnings ratio continues a multi-year climb. Excluding the pandemic year of 2020, at 22.7x trailing twelve-month earnings, it is the highest ratio in the periods under analysis
The balance sheet of the S&amp;P 500 as a whole continues to deteriorate


Storm Clouds On The Horizon; Analyzing The S&P 500

Partner, River Valley Asset Management

River Valley Asset Management

Partner

Singapore-based boutique asset management firm

River Valley Asset Management is a Singapore-based boutique asset management firm. Our team at RVAM strongly believes in being a trusted steward of our clients' wealth across generations.

Each of our fund managers has years of rich portfolio management experience over multiple market cycles at world-class investment houses. We bring our clients the combined strength of our investment team to manage their financial portfolios and to provide bespoke guidance on all aspects of their financial health.

We offer multi-asset class expert investment advice to accredited investors who are family offices, high net worth individuals and institutional investors to preserve and grow our clients' wealth.

The fund management team of the company includes Homiyar Vasania, Anand Ramachandran and Jamshed Desai.

<p>Nearly half way into the year, equity markets have charted a bullish course but the chatter in the marketplace is not as gung ho as one would expect after such a strong rally. We have been attending a few conferences over the last few months and investors on average still sound cautious, worrying about the unknown risks. As we analyze the root cause of this disconnect what strikes us is the narrowness of the current rally.</p>

Nearly half way into the year, equity markets have charted a bullish course but the chatter in the marketplace is not as gung ho as one would expect after such a strong rally. We have been attending a few conferences over the last few months and investors on average still sound cautious, worrying about the unknown risks. As we analyze the root cause of this disconnect what strikes us is the narrowness of the current rally.

Markets Rallied but Investors Are Not Partying

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

The Biggest Macro Risk You Might Be Ignoring

Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

International Investing

International investing is a lot of work. It can also be uncomfortable. Importantly, international stocks have underperformed since GFC

Value Punks

Storm Clouds On The Horizon; Analyzing The S&P 500

The Standard and Poor’s website provides some interesting raw data on the index, open for anyone to see The price/earnings ratio continues a...

Watchlist Investing

Markets Rallied but Investors Are Not Partying

Nearly half way into the year, equity markets have charted a bullish course but the chatter in the marketplace is not as gung ho as one would...

River Valley Asset Management

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)