Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

US foreign policy in the Trump era is not haphazard, as long as you understand what motivates Trump (and his political mentor, Putin). The military strike on Syria was a brilliant head-fake -- meant to appease the concerns of the Deep State, while doing nothing to change Syria's trajectory. Although France's Emmanuel Macron is in the US seeking to persuade Trump to prolong the US military commitment to Syria, Trump is inclined to pull US troops out, thereby weakening the Kurdish-dominated YPG…

US foreign policy in the Trump era is not haphazard, as long as you understand what motivates Trump (and his political mentor, Putin). The military strike on Syria was a brilliant head-fake -- meant to appease the concerns of the Deep State, while doing nothing to change Syria's trajectory. Although France's Emmanuel Macron is in the US seeking to persuade Trump to prolong the US military commitment to Syria, Trump is inclined to pull US troops out, thereby weakening the Kurdish-dominated YPG…

Trump Appeases the Deep State on Syria While Quietly Furthering Putin's Agenda

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Is the stock market undergoing a regime change? The Average Direction Index (ADX) is a trend indicator developed by Welles Wilder to measure the strength of a price trend. The higher the ADX level the stronger the trend. The chart below shows the relative performance of technology stocks compared to the market. Even though this sector remains in a relative uptrend, the ADX of the relative performance ratio began to roll over in late 2017. The weakness in trend culminated in the recent carnage of…

Is the stock market undergoing a regime change? The Average Direction Index (ADX) is a trend indicator developed by Welles Wilder to measure the strength of a price trend. The higher the ADX level the stronger the trend. The chart below shows the relative performance of technology stocks compared to the market. Even though this sector remains in a relative uptrend, the ADX of the relative performance ratio began to roll over in late 2017. The weakness in trend culminated in the recent carnage of…

Bill McBride of <a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/03/when-story-changes-be-alert.html" target="_blank">Calculated Risk</a> has had a remarkable record of calling turns in the economy. He correctly warned about the peaking housing bubble before it popped, and he has been consistently bullish since the market bottom in 2009. Recently, he warned that “the story is changing”:But in 2018, the story is changing. We are seeing some economic tailwinds and some headwinds. Although the tax changes are poorly conceived, and mostly benefit high income earners, there should be some short term…

Bill McBride of Calculated Risk has had a remarkable record of calling turns in the economy. He correctly warned about the peaking housing bubble before it popped, and he has been consistently bullish since the market bottom in 2009. Recently, he warned that “the story is changing”:But in 2018, the story is changing. We are seeing some economic tailwinds and some headwinds. Although the tax changes are poorly conceived, and mostly benefit high income earners, there should be some short term…

The recent stock market tantrum reveals the uncertainty surrounding the likely policy path of the Powell Fed. Investors have a few key unanswered questions:<ul><li>How will the Powell Fed's reaction function to inflation differ from the Yellen Fed? The risks of a policy mistake are high during the current late cycle expansion phase of the economy. Adhere to overly strict rules-based models of monetary policy, and the Fed risks tightening too much or too quickly and send the economy into a tailspin…</li></ul>

The recent stock market tantrum reveals the uncertainty surrounding the likely policy path of the Powell Fed. Investors have a few key unanswered questions:How will the Powell Fed's reaction function to inflation differ from the Yellen Fed? The risks of a policy mistake are high during the current late cycle expansion phase of the economy. Adhere to overly strict rules-based models of monetary policy, and the Fed risks tightening too much or too quickly and send the economy into a tailspin…

Why did U.S. equity prices crater this week? The conventional explanation of the sell-off was the market was spooked by the strong Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) print in the January Employment Report. Strong wage gains puts greater pressure on the Federal Reserve to act and raise interest rates. Bond yields spiked, which spooked the stock market.We would prefer a far simpler explanation. Stock prices went up too far and too fast. Call it the Bob Farrell Rule 4 correction: “When prices go…

Why did U.S. equity prices crater this week? The conventional explanation of the sell-off was the market was spooked by the strong Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) print in the January Employment Report. Strong wage gains puts greater pressure on the Federal Reserve to act and raise interest rates. Bond yields spiked, which spooked the stock market.We would prefer a far simpler explanation. Stock prices went up too far and too fast. Call it the Bob Farrell Rule 4 correction: “When prices go…

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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Trump Appeases the Deep State on Syria While Quietly Furthering Putin's Agenda

US foreign policy in the Trump era is not haphazard, as long as you understand what motivates Trump (and his political mentor, Putin). The military...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Is This What a Regime Change Looks Like?

Is the stock market undergoing a regime change? The Average Direction Index (ADX) is a trend indicator developed by Welles Wilder to measure the...

Cam Hui

When the Story Changes...

Bill McBride of Calculated Risk has had a remarkable record of calling turns in the economy. He correctly warned about the peaking housing bubble...

Cam Hui

Powell Fed: Market Wildcard

The recent stock market tantrum reveals the uncertainty surrounding the likely policy path of the Powell Fed. Investors have a few key unanswered...

Cam Hui

An S&P 500 Washout Bottom?

Why did U.S. equity prices crater this week? The conventional explanation of the sell-off was the market was spooked by the strong Average Hourly...

Cam Hui

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