Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

-Soaring ISM (PMI 58.2; new orders 64) point to a sharply strengthening US economy in 1H 2018, with scant remaining slack in the labour market. The large proposed corporate tax cut (and smaller, more regressive personal income tax cuts) will boost nominal GDP in 1H 2018, but with inflation rising more than real GDP (which cannot do much better than recent readings without immigration). -With core inflation rising toward 2% YoY by mid-2018, the FOMC is likely to speed up hikes in the Fed Funds…

-Soaring ISM (PMI 58.2; new orders 64) point to a sharply strengthening US economy in 1H 2018, with scant remaining slack in the labour market. The large proposed corporate tax cut (and smaller, more regressive personal income tax cuts) will boost nominal GDP in 1H 2018, but with inflation rising more than real GDP (which cannot do much better than recent readings without immigration). -With core inflation rising toward 2% YoY by mid-2018, the FOMC is likely to speed up hikes in the Fed Funds…

Republican Tax Cuts Will Cause Deficits to Balloon, and Bonds to Sell off Dramatically in 2018

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It is said that while bottoms are events, tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in; therefore, they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions converge, but not necessarily all at the same time.

It is said that while bottoms are events, tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in; therefore, they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions converge, but not necessarily all at the same time.

Things You Don't See At Market Bottoms: Rational Exuberance

Economist

Richard Iley

<div class="content-highlight">As expected, the ISM manufacturing report for September was an absolute blockbuster. At 60.8, the headline index equalled its second-highest reading since 1987! Strength was across the board. The highest supplier delivery times balance since 2004, combined with customer inventories still at rock bottom levels, underscores that surging demand is surprising producers and seeing finished goods inventories drawn down. Although the headline index has now probably peaked, the need to re-stock should…</div>

As expected, the ISM manufacturing report for September was an absolute blockbuster. At 60.8, the headline index equalled its second-highest reading since 1987! Strength was across the board. The highest supplier delivery times balance since 2004, combined with customer inventories still at rock bottom levels, underscores that surging demand is surprising producers and seeing finished goods inventories drawn down. Although the headline index has now probably peaked, the need to re-stock should…

-Trump tax cut proposals 3 days before the end of this budget year will result in revenue losses of US$5.3tn over 10 years. The Senate has passed rules that enable a tax cut of just US$1.5tn over 10 years through a "reconciliation" (simple majority) process, rather than through the 60 votes normally required in the Senate. Even using generous assumptions about additional revenue gains hinted at in the Trump/GOP proposal, these add only US$2.8tn -- still leaving US$2.5tn of revenue losses. -If…

-Trump tax cut proposals 3 days before the end of this budget year will result in revenue losses of US$5.3tn over 10 years. The Senate has passed rules that enable a tax cut of just US$1.5tn over 10 years through a "reconciliation" (simple majority) process, rather than through the 60 votes normally required in the Senate. Even using generous assumptions about additional revenue gains hinted at in the Trump/GOP proposal, these add only US$2.8tn -- still leaving US$2.5tn of revenue losses. -If…

Trump's Belated Tax Proposal: Flimsy, Hence Unlikely to Be Passed by December as Needed

<div class="content-highlight">Incoming regional manufacturing surveys, particularly the Philly Fed survey, suggest that the US's manufacturing boom remains in full swing. Two factors merit special attention. First, the Philly Fed's bellwether capex intentions balance held near 30-year highs in September, signalling that animal spirits remain robust and the capex recovery continues. Second, the Dallas Fed's manufacturing survey was also buoyant in September, suggesting that the Hurricane Harvey-related weakness seen in the…</div>

Incoming regional manufacturing surveys, particularly the Philly Fed survey, suggest that the US's manufacturing boom remains in full swing. Two factors merit special attention. First, the Philly Fed's bellwether capex intentions balance held near 30-year highs in September, signalling that animal spirits remain robust and the capex recovery continues. Second, the Dallas Fed's manufacturing survey was also buoyant in September, suggesting that the Hurricane Harvey-related weakness seen in the…

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

Republican Tax Cuts Will Cause Deficits to Balloon, and Bonds to Sell off Dramatically in 2018

-Soaring ISM (PMI 58.2; new orders 64) point to a sharply strengthening US economy in 1H 2018, with scant remaining slack in the labour market. The...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Things You Don't See At Market Bottoms: Rational Exuberance

It is said that while bottoms are events, tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in; therefore, they can be more easily...

Cam Hui

US: Manufacturing Boom! - Part III

As expected, the ISM manufacturing report for September was an absolute blockbuster. At 60.8, the headline index equalled its second-highest...

Richard Iley

Trump's Belated Tax Proposal: Flimsy, Hence Unlikely to Be Passed by December as Needed

-Trump tax cut proposals 3 days before the end of this budget year will result in revenue losses of US$5.3tn over 10 years. The Senate has passed...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: Manufacturing Boom! - Part II

Incoming regional manufacturing surveys, particularly the Philly Fed survey, suggest that the US's manufacturing boom remains in full swing. Two...

Richard Iley

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)