European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>EU Commission and Austria/Belgium cleared. Remaining approvals: US HSR and FDI in Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands, Spain. After these, UK High Court sanction and order registration are gating steps.</li>
<li>At 4,088p versus 4,175p consideration, gross spread is 2.13%. Expected annualized IRR ~4–6% assuming Jan–Mar 2026 cash. June entry at £32.04 still screens exceptional, ~39–51% annualized, settlement-dependent on current guidance.</li>
<li>Maintain exposure; monitor court timetable and residual filings pace. Dividend ex-date is 2 October 2025. Outcome probability remains high; timing within Q1 drives IRR sensitivity and settlement-month dispersion for investors.</li>
</ul>


EU Commission and Austria/Belgium cleared. Remaining approvals: US HSR and FDI in Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands, Spain. After these, UK High Court sanction and order registration are gating steps.
At 4,088p versus 4,175p consideration, gross spread is 2.13%. Expected annualized IRR ~4–6% assuming Jan–Mar 2026 cash. June entry at £32.04 still screens exceptional, ~39–51% annualized, settlement-dependent on current guidance.
Maintain exposure; monitor court timetable and residual filings pace. Dividend ex-date is 2 October 2025. Outcome probability remains high; timing within Q1 drives IRR sensitivity and settlement-month dispersion for investors.


KKR–Spectris: Major Reg Hurdles Cleared; Timing Drives 2.13% Gross Into Q1’26

<ul>
<li>KKR’s £41.75/share cash-and-dividend offer for Spectris has secured overwhelming shareholder approval, with scheme completion likely in Q1 2026 pending court sanction and regulatory clearances under the UK Takeover Code.</li>
<li>The deal implies a 105% premium to the undisturbed price and 15.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, with KKR already beginning to take control of governance and management direction at Spectris.</li>
<li>At 4,040p close, the spread looks attractive; outcome is binary, but timing is the critical swing factor for returns as settlement drifts between January and March 2026.</li>
</ul>


KKR’s £41.75/share cash-and-dividend offer for Spectris has secured overwhelming shareholder approval, with scheme completion likely in Q1 2026 pending court sanction and regulatory clearances under the UK Takeover Code.
The deal implies a 105% premium to the undisturbed price and 15.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, with KKR already beginning to take control of governance and management direction at Spectris.
At 4,040p close, the spread looks attractive; outcome is binary, but timing is the critical swing factor for returns as settlement drifts between January and March 2026.


Spectris – KKR Clears Shareholder Hurdle; Arb Returns Now Timing-Dependent

<ul>
<li>Advent raises its bid for Spectris to £40.72/share, including a 6.3% premium over KKR’s prior offer, intensifying the competitive landscape and prompting a renewed board recommendation.</li>
<li>Irrevocable undertakings and partial share acquisition reduce KKR’s strategic room, though the transaction remains under close investor scrutiny amid broader private equity competition for UK assets.</li>
<li>Despite minimal spread, the situation offers insight into pricing discipline, sponsor credibility, and evolving UK M&amp;A dynamics in a high-rate, FX-sensitive environment.</li>
</ul>


Advent raises its bid for Spectris to £40.72/share, including a 6.3% premium over KKR’s prior offer, intensifying the competitive landscape and prompting a renewed board recommendation.
Irrevocable undertakings and partial share acquisition reduce KKR’s strategic room, though the transaction remains under close investor scrutiny amid broader private equity competition for UK assets.
Despite minimal spread, the situation offers insight into pricing discipline, sponsor credibility, and evolving UK M&amp;A dynamics in a high-rate, FX-sensitive environment.


Spectris – Board Flips to Advent’s Raised Offer, KKR Cornered

<ul>
<li>KKR’s £40/share offer is now board-recommended, displacing Advent’s prior bid; Spectris shares trade near offer price with minimal spread.</li>
<li>With full board support and limited regulatory risk, the market implies &gt;99% deal certainty.</li>
<li>Advent must act swiftly or concede defeat; further bidding appears unlikely but not impossible.</li>
</ul>


KKR’s £40/share offer is now board-recommended, displacing Advent’s prior bid; Spectris shares trade near offer price with minimal spread.
With full board support and limited regulatory risk, the market implies &gt;99% deal certainty.
Advent must act swiftly or concede defeat; further bidding appears unlikely but not impossible.


Spectris Update: KKR’s Recommended Counter-Offer Displaces Advent

<ul>
<li>Spectris shares have rallied to £37.98 following a firm offer from Advent and renewed interest from KKR, validating my original high-conviction arbitrage call.</li>
<li>The binding £37.63/share offer implies 14.4x EV/EBITDA on CY2025 forecasts, well above peer median, reflecting control premium, synergy potential, and prior undervaluation (~6.1x).</li>
<li>Interloper risk has become material; with the July 11 PUSU deadline for KKR, investors now face modest downside and renewed upside optionality.</li>
</ul>


Spectris shares have rallied to £37.98 following a firm offer from Advent and renewed interest from KKR, validating my original high-conviction arbitrage call.
The binding £37.63/share offer implies 14.4x EV/EBITDA on CY2025 forecasts, well above peer median, reflecting control premium, synergy potential, and prior undervaluation (~6.1x).
Interloper risk has become material; with the July 11 PUSU deadline for KKR, investors now face modest downside and renewed upside optionality.


Spectris in Play: Advent Locks In, KKR Circles

United Kingdom

Spectris plc manufactures, designs and markets products for the electronic control and process instrumentation sectors.  The Company's products include digital indication and control products, industrial computer circuit boards, semiconductor related devices, infrared equipment for temperature measurement, flying controls, gas analysis products, and analytical x-ray systems.

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Spectris PLC (SXS LN)

KKR–Spectris: Major Reg Hurdles Cleared; Timing Drives 2.13% Gross Into Q1’26

Spectris/KKR is largely de-risked: EC and Austria/Belgium FDI cleared; remaining US HSR and select EU FDI pending. At 4,088p vs 4,175p, spread is...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Spectris – KKR Clears Shareholder Hurdle; Arb Returns Now Timing-Dependent

Spectris arb enters its final stage: shareholder approval secured, leadership set, and timing now the key driver of returns. Spread remains...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Spectris – Board Flips to Advent’s Raised Offer, KKR Cornered

Advent ups its bid for Spectris to £40.72/share, topping KKR’s prior offer. With board backing and a 7.54% stake secured, Advent moves closer to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Spectris Update: KKR’s Recommended Counter-Offer Displaces Advent

KKR wins board backing for its £40/share bid for Spectris, outbidding Advent. With near-zero spread and high certainty, the market sees closure...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Spectris in Play: Advent Locks In, KKR Circles

Advent's firm offer for Spectris, now challenged by KKR's renewed interest, creates an active event-driven setup with low execution risk and rising...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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