European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KKR’s £40/share offer is now board-recommended, displacing Advent’s prior bid; Spectris shares trade near offer price with minimal spread.</li>
<li>With full board support and limited regulatory risk, the market implies &gt;99% deal certainty.</li>
<li>Advent must act swiftly or concede defeat; further bidding appears unlikely but not impossible.</li>
</ul>


KKR’s £40/share offer is now board-recommended, displacing Advent’s prior bid; Spectris shares trade near offer price with minimal spread.
With full board support and limited regulatory risk, the market implies &gt;99% deal certainty.
Advent must act swiftly or concede defeat; further bidding appears unlikely but not impossible.


Spectris Update: KKR’s Recommended Counter-Offer Displaces Advent

<ul>
<li>Spectris shares have rallied to £37.98 following a firm offer from Advent and renewed interest from KKR, validating my original high-conviction arbitrage call.</li>
<li>The binding £37.63/share offer implies 14.4x EV/EBITDA on CY2025 forecasts, well above peer median, reflecting control premium, synergy potential, and prior undervaluation (~6.1x).</li>
<li>Interloper risk has become material; with the July 11 PUSU deadline for KKR, investors now face modest downside and renewed upside optionality.</li>
</ul>


Spectris shares have rallied to £37.98 following a firm offer from Advent and renewed interest from KKR, validating my original high-conviction arbitrage call.
The binding £37.63/share offer implies 14.4x EV/EBITDA on CY2025 forecasts, well above peer median, reflecting control premium, synergy potential, and prior undervaluation (~6.1x).
Interloper risk has become material; with the July 11 PUSU deadline for KKR, investors now face modest downside and renewed upside optionality.


Spectris in Play: Advent Locks In, KKR Circles

<ul>
<li>High-Conviction setup: Advent’s £37.63/share proposal offers an 85% premium; Spectris' board is supportive, PUSU deadline is July 7 under UK Takeover Code.</li>
<li>Attractive arbitrage: current spread offers ~17.5% gross upside; limited antitrust concerns and supportive FX backdrop enhance deal certainty. Interloper risk is modest but non-zero.</li>
<li>Valuation re-rating: offer implies 14.1x EV/NTM EBITDA vs. 10.1x peer median, justified by control premium, margin uplift potential, and depressed pre-deal valuation (~6.1x).</li>
</ul>


High-Conviction setup: Advent’s £37.63/share proposal offers an 85% premium; Spectris' board is supportive, PUSU deadline is July 7 under UK Takeover Code.
Attractive arbitrage: current spread offers ~17.5% gross upside; limited antitrust concerns and supportive FX backdrop enhance deal certainty. Interloper risk is modest but non-zero.
Valuation re-rating: offer implies 14.1x EV/NTM EBITDA vs. 10.1x peer median, justified by control premium, margin uplift potential, and depressed pre-deal valuation (~6.1x).


Calibrating Value: Spectris in Advent’s Crosshair

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Given the METI extension on FEFTA review on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura (6957 JP)</a>, risks are slightly higher. &lt;¥5,900 was a good buy on an incremental basis. ¥5,970 is OK but not spectacular.</li>
<li>As expected (at least by me) - I Squared has withdrawn its Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Re: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a>, this "rescue package" announcement - ~HK$88.2bn - should come as no surprise, as the alternative situation (liquidation/bankruptcy) and the ensuing optics were not great.</li>
</ul>


Given the METI extension on FEFTA review on Shibaura (6957 JP), risks are slightly higher. &lt;¥5,900 was a good buy on an incremental basis. ¥5,970 is OK but not spectacular.
As expected (at least by me) - I Squared has withdrawn its Offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK).
Re: New World Development (17 HK), this "rescue package" announcement - ~HK$88.2bn - should come as no surprise, as the alternative situation (liquidation/bankruptcy) and the ensuing optics were not great.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura, HKBN, NWD, Yichang HEC

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krungthai-card-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20097:1" rel="noopener">Krungthai Card (KTC TB)</a> is a pretty straightforward short term trade. Basically the second largest shareholder, Prakitchaiwattana, got margin called, and shares fell limit down. Twice.</li>
<li>South Korean private equity firm VIG Partners tables an Offer for beauty device company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viol-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41010:1" rel="noopener">VIOL (335890 KS)</a>, whose major shareholder, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dms-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2132:1" rel="noopener">DMS (068790 KS)</a>, faces allegations of unfair internal transactions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco (200 HK)</a>'s 11.9% gain on the 26th June - on serious volume - was predicated on a short squeeze, just eight days after the fully-paid rights shares commenced trading.</li>
</ul>



Krungthai Card (KTC TB) is a pretty straightforward short term trade. Basically the second largest shareholder, Prakitchaiwattana, got margin called, and shares fell limit down. Twice.
South Korean private equity firm VIG Partners tables an Offer for beauty device company VIOL (335890 KS), whose major shareholder, DMS (068790 KS), faces allegations of unfair internal transactions.

Melco (200 HK)'s 11.9% gain on the 26th June - on serious volume - was predicated on a short squeeze, just eight days after the fully-paid rights shares commenced trading.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Krungthai Card, VIOL, Melco, Singapore Post

United Kingdom

Spectris plc manufactures, designs and markets products for the electronic control and process instrumentation sectors.  The Company's products include digital indication and control products, industrial computer circuit boards, semiconductor related devices, infrared equipment for temperature measurement, flying controls, gas analysis products, and analytical x-ray systems.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Spectris PLC (SXS LN)

Spectris Update: KKR’s Recommended Counter-Offer Displaces Advent

KKR wins board backing for its £40/share bid for Spectris, outbidding Advent. With near-zero spread and high certainty, the market sees closure...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Spectris in Play: Advent Locks In, KKR Circles

Advent's firm offer for Spectris, now challenged by KKR's renewed interest, creates an active event-driven setup with low execution risk and rising...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Calibrating Value: Spectris in Advent’s Crosshair

Advent’s £3.7B bid for Spectris offers 85% premium; board support, modest spread, and low antitrust risk create a compelling short-term arbitrage...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura, HKBN, NWD, Yichang HEC

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Krungthai Card, VIOL, Melco, Singapore Post

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)