US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mondi-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22048:1" rel="noopener">Mondi PLC (MNDI LN)</a> is near the exit threshold of Top 40, resulting in a potential deletion.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-african-resources-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23518:1" rel="noopener">Pan African Resources (PAF LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tiger-brands-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24843:1" rel="noopener">Tiger Brands (TBS SJ)</a> are the main candidates to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mondi-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22048:1" rel="noopener">Mondi PLC (MNDI LN)</a> in Top 40.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/impala-platinum-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25124:1" rel="noopener">Impala Platinum Holdings (IMP SJ)</a> is expected to migrate from MidCap to LargeCap following its price surge of 40% over the last 3 months.</li>
</ul>



Mondi PLC (MNDI LN) is near the exit threshold of Top 40, resulting in a potential deletion.

Pan African Resources (PAF LN) and Tiger Brands (TBS SJ) are the main candidates to replace Mondi PLC (MNDI LN) in Top 40.

Impala Platinum Holdings (IMP SJ) is expected to migrate from MidCap to LargeCap following its price surge of 40% over the last 3 months.


South Africa/JSE Index Forecast - Mar26: Maybe 1 Addition, 1 Deletion in Top 40

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Pan African’s EPS for H126 were 2.7% ahead of our prior forecasts on a headline basis and 27.0% ahead on a normalised basis (see Exhibit 2). Management reiterated guidance for FY26 at 275–292koz, albeit at a slightly higher AISC of US$1,820–1,870/oz at ZAR17.00/US$ (cf US$1,525–1,575/oz at ZAR18.50/US$ previously). It also declared a maiden interim dividend of ZAR0.12/share. As a result, we have raised our normalised HEPS forecast for FY26 by 11.6%, although we have lowered our FY27 estimate to reflect broadly static production in that year and higher capital expenditure.

Pan African’s EPS for H126 were 2.7% ahead of our prior forecasts on a headline basis and 27.0% ahead on a normalised basis (see Exhibit 2). Management reiterated guidance for FY26 at 275–292koz, albeit at a slightly higher AISC of US$1,820–1,870/oz at ZAR17.00/US$ (cf US$1,525–1,575/oz at ZAR18.50/US$ previously). It also declared a maiden interim dividend of ZAR0.12/share. As a result, we have raised our normalised HEPS forecast for FY26 by 11.6%, although we have lowered our FY27 estimate to reflect broadly static production in that year and higher capital expenditure.

Pan African Resources — Up 17 times in 15 years

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The gold rush continues as Northern Territory miner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emmerson-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18705:1" rel="noopener">Emmerson Resources (ERM AU)</a><a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260309/pdf/06x67nmqb3fk6t.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> enters into a Scheme</a> with dual-listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-african-resources-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23518:1" rel="noopener">Pan African Resources (PAF LN)</a> (PAR), consolidating their Tenant Creek joint venture.  </li>
<li>
PAR is offering 0.1493 new PAR shares for each Emmerson share - or a A$0.45/share indicative Offer price, a 36.4% premium to last close. </li>
<li>Emmerson shareholders will hold ~4.2% of the enlarged gold play. ~26% of Emmerson shareholders are supportive. Looks clean</li>
</ul>


The gold rush continues as Northern Territory miner Emmerson Resources (ERM AU) enters into a Scheme with dual-listed Pan African Resources (PAF LN) (PAR), consolidating their Tenant Creek joint venture.  

PAR is offering 0.1493 new PAR shares for each Emmerson share - or a A$0.45/share indicative Offer price, a 36.4% premium to last close. 
Emmerson shareholders will hold ~4.2% of the enlarged gold play. ~26% of Emmerson shareholders are supportive. Looks clean


Emmerson Resources (ERM AU): Pan African Resources' Clean Scheme

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF</a> will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$10.2bn.
The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes since the last Insight that highlighted the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn

United Kingdom

Pan African Resources PLC engages in the exploration and mining of gold and platinum-group element (PGE) properties in South Africa. The company operates through five segments: Barberton Mines, Evander Mines, Phoenix Platinum, Corporate and Growth Projects, and Funding Company. Its PGE properties comprise platinum, palladium, rhodium, iridium, and ruthenium deposits. The company?s assets include Barberton Mines comprising three gold mines and the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Plant, as well as Evander Mines consisting of a gold mine and the Evander Tailings Treatment Plant in Mpumalanga; and Phoenix Platinum, a Chrome Tailing Retreatment Plant located in Rustenburg, South Africa. It also provides funding services. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Pan African Resources (PAF LN)

South Africa/JSE Index Forecast - Mar26: Maybe 1 Addition, 1 Deletion in Top 40

Mondi plc (MNP SJ) will be deleted from the Top 40 and Pan African Resources (PAN SJ) will be added as the replacement. Forecasted passive fund...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Pan African Resources — Up 17 times in 15 years

Pan African’s EPS for H126 were 2.7% ahead of our prior forecasts on a headline basis and 27.0% ahead on a normalised basis (see Exhibit 2)....

Edison Investment Research

Emmerson Resources (ERM AU): Pan African Resources' Clean Scheme

Another clean gold merger. Trading wide at a gross/annualised spread of 13.8%/36.2% assuming late July completion, indicative of the cross border...

David Blennerhassett

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

The GDX ETF will change benchmarks at the close on 19 Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8%; round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. Adds...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$10bn

The change in benchmark for GDX should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 22.9% resulting in a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)