Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We said that we expected MMO Final Fantasy XIV to drive a strong beat and FY OP towards ¥70bn rather than consensus’ ¥55bn. </li>
<li>With 3Q OP of ¥21.0bn easily beating consensus at ¥14.4bn we believe we are nicely on track. </li>
<li>Oh and there were some tidbits about NFTs which should get some segments of the market interested.</li>
</ul>


We said that we expected MMO Final Fantasy XIV to drive a strong beat and FY OP towards ¥70bn rather than consensus’ ¥55bn. 
With 3Q OP of ¥21.0bn easily beating consensus at ¥14.4bn we believe we are nicely on track. 
Oh and there were some tidbits about NFTs which should get some segments of the market interested.


Square Enix – A Beat, A Bump and More to Come

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Blockchain games are gaining popularity and traction with new players. There are now over 1.4m people playing blockchain games daily  </li>
<li>The economics of blockchain gaming and NFT is driving a flood of new investment into the space, with $4b committed by VCs in 2021. This year will be significantly higher  </li>
<li>Square Enix understands that blockchain games are here to stay despite opposition from “legacy fans.” We expect further announcements on blockchain gaming to drive the stock</li>
</ul>


Blockchain games are gaining popularity and traction with new players. There are now over 1.4m people playing blockchain games daily  
The economics of blockchain gaming and NFT is driving a flood of new investment into the space, with $4b committed by VCs in 2021. This year will be significantly higher  
Square Enix understands that blockchain games are here to stay despite opposition from “legacy fans.” We expect further announcements on blockchain gaming to drive the stock


<ul>
<li>Square Enix rose 7.5% yesterday driven by some New Year commentary on integration of NFTs from President Yosuke Matsuda. </li>
<li>The share price jump stands in contrast to broadly negative and suspicious reactions from consumers. </li>
<li>The handling of the issue could be tricky as Ubisoft is finding out but we believe there is positive potential.</li>
</ul>


Square Enix rose 7.5% yesterday driven by some New Year commentary on integration of NFTs from President Yosuke Matsuda. 
The share price jump stands in contrast to broadly negative and suspicious reactions from consumers. 
The handling of the issue could be tricky as Ubisoft is finding out but we believe there is positive potential.


Square Enix – Is the 7% NFT Bump Sustainable?

<ul>
<li>Spider-Man: No Way Home appears set to more or less match the opening weekend of Avengers: Infinity War. </li>
<li>This is extremely strong performance especially given lingering pandemic impacts. </li>
<li>It also suggests that our call that the Spider-Man IP would step into the MCU void following Avengers: Endgame is likely correct.</li>
</ul>


Spider-Man: No Way Home appears set to more or less match the opening weekend of Avengers: Infinity War. 
This is extremely strong performance especially given lingering pandemic impacts. 
It also suggests that our call that the Spider-Man IP would step into the MCU void following Avengers: Endgame is likely correct.


<ul>
<li>We have been pushing Square Enix on the basis that its Final Fantasy XIV MMO was seeing surging popularity. </li>
<li>With the release of its Endwalker expansion on the 9th that popularity took another leg up. </li>
<li>So much so that Square Enix is being forced to suspend sales to avoid overcrowding servers.</li>
</ul>


We have been pushing Square Enix on the basis that its Final Fantasy XIV MMO was seeing surging popularity. 
With the release of its Endwalker expansion on the 9th that popularity took another leg up. 
So much so that Square Enix is being forced to suspend sales to avoid overcrowding servers.


Square Enix – Endwalker So Popular Sales Are Suspended

Japan

SQUARE ENIX HOLDINGS CO., LTD. develops and sells entertainment software for home video game consoles including Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy series. The Company also publishes books such as informational guide books for its game software, and comic magazines and books.  Additionally, Square Enix sells character goods and stationery items from its software products.

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Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP)

Square Enix – A Beat, A Bump and More to Come

We said that we expected Final Fantasy XIV to drive a strong beat and FY OP towards ¥70bn rather than consensus’ ¥55bn. With 3Q OP of ¥21.0bn...

Mio Kato

Square Enix – WAGMI

Blockchain games really took off last year, garnering the attention of both gamers and investors. Square Enix will embrace blockchain games/NFTs...

Mark Chadwick

Square Enix – Is the 7% NFT Bump Sustainable?

Square Enix rose 7.5% yesterday driven by some New Year commentary on integration of NFTs and while the handling of the issue could be tricky as...

Mio Kato

Sony – Spider-Man Is the Holiday Hero

Spider-Man: No Way Home is set to match the opening weekend of Avengers: Infinity War supporting our call that the Spider-Man IP would step into...

Mio Kato

Square Enix – Endwalker So Popular Sales Are Suspended

We have been pushing Square Enix on the basis that its Final Fantasy XIV MMO was seeing surging popularity. So much so that Square Enix is being...

Mio Kato

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