Asia Fixed Income Analyst

Derek Silva

Market Securities (Dubai)

Market Securities (Dubai) Limited ('MSD') is an independent financial intermediary specialising in financial products. The client base is large financial institutions based in various locations around the globe. The company is based in the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA).

MSD's Cross Asset Team provides institutional investors access to multi-asset services through desks in London and Dubai, including EM fixed income, cross asset derivatives, relative value, risk arbitrage, funds and ETFs. Market Securities has access to a broad range of execution services through the office network in London, Paris, New York and Dubai. 

Market Securities’ Cross Asset Team is a unique group of specialists focusing on emerging market fixed income strategies. The team derives investment insights from cross asset inputs. 
MSD's Cross Asset team combines nearly 20 years of average global investment experience covering both buy and sell side, with the core team having worked together for 15 years. Over the years, the team has built a strong network of individuals and institutions to gain access to information and investment insights.

The team was established to service the growing needs of Tier 1 investors in an independent and unbiased manner. The team is passionate, opinionated and disciplined.

You can get in touch with the Market Securities team:

Derek Silva <derek.silva@market-securities.com> (Asia Fixed Income Analyst)
Ville Kuokka <ville.kuokka@market-securities.com> (MENA/EM Analysis/Execution)
Mika Parviainen <mika.parviainen@market-securities.com> (MENA/EM Analysis/Execution)

Credit

Sri Lanka Government International Bond / Credit

Sri Lanka Government International Bond (SRILAN GOVT)

<ul><li>SRILAN bonds are gradually recovering after successful new loans and swaps have helped with liquidity. But these short-term stopgaps don’t help the deeper structural debt problem.</li><li>Foreign reserves are rapidly depleting, from $6.9bn to $4.0bn in less than a year.</li><li>Imports dominate exports while FDI is weak and cannot keep up with foreign currency outflows to repay debt – these both lead to frequent Balance of Payments crises.</li><li>The only real saviour for Sri Lanka is the IMF, but it refuses to ask the IMF for help – and IMF help is anyway dependent on BoP stability, which is only worsening for Sri Lanka.</li><li>It’s not only the amount of debt, but also the composition of debt, as today’s debt repayment burden is much heavier than before.</li><li>Very short dated SRILAN bonds are trading near par. For bonds beyond one year, there’s more upside. But with ~$4bn of debt service obligations and large bond maturities each year until 2030, we have no confidence in Sri Lanka avoiding default without IMF help. We dislike SRILAN bonds.</li></ul>

SRILAN bonds are gradually recovering after successful new loans and swaps have helped with liquidity. But these short-term stopgaps don’t help the deeper structural debt problem.Foreign reserves are rapidly depleting, from $6.9bn to $4.0bn in less than a year.Imports dominate exports while FDI is weak and cannot keep up with foreign currency outflows to repay debt – these both lead to frequent Balance of Payments crises.The only real saviour for Sri Lanka is the IMF, but it refuses to ask the IMF for help – and IMF help is anyway dependent on BoP stability, which is only worsening for Sri Lanka.It’s not only the amount of debt, but also the composition of debt, as today’s debt repayment burden is much heavier than before.Very short dated SRILAN bonds are trading near par. For bonds beyond one year, there’s more upside. But with ~$4bn of debt service obligations and large bond maturities each year until 2030, we have no confidence in Sri Lanka avoiding default without IMF help. We dislike SRILAN bonds.

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Sri Lanka Government International Bond (SRILAN GOVT)

Sri Lanka: Market Insight

SRI LANKA: GETTING BACK ON TRACK OR JUST BUYING TIME? SRILAN bonds are gradually recovering after successful new loans and swaps. But there is a...

Market Securities (Dubai)

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