Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps tell a different story and are a great source of investment ideas within the EAFE region. In today’s report we use a bottom-up approach to highlight actionable charts, sorted by market cap (all buys at current levels).

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps tell a different story and are a great source of investment ideas within the EAFE region. In today’s report we use a bottom-up approach to highlight actionable charts, sorted by market cap (all buys at current levels).

Pullback opportunities are currently in limited supply. While most markets are advancing to 12+ month highs, including the U.S., Japan, and EM, Europe is still trading at its 200-day MA, as a result of its recent four-month decline. This presents an attractive entry point, especially for small-cap investors.  In this report we highlight opportunities in: steel companies, trucks/construction/farm machinery, auto parts manufacturers and energy companies.

Pullback opportunities are currently in limited supply. While most markets are advancing to 12+ month highs, including the U.S., Japan, and EM, Europe is still trading at its 200-day MA, as a result of its recent four-month decline. This presents an attractive entry point, especially for small-cap investors.  In this report we highlight opportunities in: steel companies, trucks/construction/farm machinery, auto parts manufacturers and energy companies.

Pullback Opportunities in European Small Caps

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>April saw dispersion re-expand, with median and mean widening modestly, confirming no systemic repricing of voting rights but renewed divergence across liquidity- and structure-driven dual-class pairs.</li>
<li>Convergence remained selective: Grifols, MFE and Sixt tightened, while Carlsberg, Fuchs and Handelsbanken re-widened, highlighting the episodic nature of ord/pref convergence.</li>
<li>Telecom Italia transitions towards corporate-action, while Nordic anomalies—particularly Handelsbanken—continue to dominate dispersion and constrain arbitrage.</li>
</ul>


April saw dispersion re-expand, with median and mean widening modestly, confirming no systemic repricing of voting rights but renewed divergence across liquidity- and structure-driven dual-class pairs.
Convergence remained selective: Grifols, MFE and Sixt tightened, while Carlsberg, Fuchs and Handelsbanken re-widened, highlighting the episodic nature of ord/pref convergence.
Telecom Italia transitions towards corporate-action, while Nordic anomalies—particularly Handelsbanken—continue to dominate dispersion and constrain arbitrage.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April '26 Report

<ul>
<li>March saw broad-based tightening across Europe’s dual-class universe, reversing February’s dispersion widening. Both the median and mean moved towards convergence, driven by retracement in structurally wide spreads.</li>
<li>Liquidity-Driven convergence reasserted itself in Fuchs, Carlsberg, Grifols and Sixt, while Handelsbanken remained the dominant structural anomaly despite meaningful tightening.</li>
<li>Telecom Italia continues to behave as a dividend-anchored structure, but with the approved savings conversion, convergence is increasingly shaped by corporate action rather than pure market arbitrage.</li>
</ul>


March saw broad-based tightening across Europe’s dual-class universe, reversing February’s dispersion widening. Both the median and mean moved towards convergence, driven by retracement in structurally wide spreads.
Liquidity-Driven convergence reasserted itself in Fuchs, Carlsberg, Grifols and Sixt, while Handelsbanken remained the dominant structural anomaly despite meaningful tightening.
Telecom Italia continues to behave as a dividend-anchored structure, but with the approved savings conversion, convergence is increasingly shaped by corporate action rather than pure market arbitrage.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '26 Report

<ul>
<li>
February saw dispersion widen modestly, with the median stable but the mean rising as structural right-tail spreads re-expanded.</li>
<li>Liquidity-Driven convergence worked selectively (Carlsberg, Fuchs), reinforcing the episodic nature of ord/pref tightening.</li>
<li>Structural anomalies persist, with Danieli widening and Handelsbanken remaining the universe’s dominant dispersion outlier.</li>
</ul>



February saw dispersion widen modestly, with the median stable but the mean rising as structural right-tail spreads re-expanded.
Liquidity-Driven convergence worked selectively (Carlsberg, Fuchs), reinforcing the episodic nature of ord/pref tightening.
Structural anomalies persist, with Danieli widening and Handelsbanken remaining the universe’s dominant dispersion outlier.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February '26 Report

Sweden

SSAB AB manufactures sheet and plate steel.  The Company's main products include hot-rolled, cold-rolled and organic-coated steel sheet.  SSAB sells its products to the automotive, engineering, and construction industries.

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SSAB AB (SSABA SS)

Focus on Outperforming EAFE SMID-Caps

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Opportunities in European Small Caps

Pullback opportunities are currently in limited supply. While most markets are advancing to 12+ month highs, including the U.S., Japan, and EM,...

Vermilion Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April '26 Report

European dual-class spreads re-widened in April, with mean rising on right-tail moves. Liquidity-driven convergence persists, while structural...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '26 Report

March saw convergence across European dual-class shares, with dispersion narrowing as liquidity returned. Structural outliers persist, while...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February '26 Report

February brought mild widening in Europe’s dual-class spreads, but no systemic repricing of voting rights. Dispersion remains driven by structural...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)