Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. </li>
<li>The  downward pressure has brought the S&amp;P to the bottom of our range at 5600-5670.</li>
<li>Friday's and Monday's tape action alleviated oversold conditions as strong demand was a clear positive. We need the 5500-5600 level to hold in order to remain constructive.</li>
</ul>


In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. 
The  downward pressure has brought the S&amp;P to the bottom of our range at 5600-5670.
Friday's and Monday's tape action alleviated oversold conditions as strong demand was a clear positive. We need the 5500-5600 level to hold in order to remain constructive.


S&P 500, NYSE Comp, QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Suggests Local Low at Minimum

Research from Atrium Research, Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research

Research from Atrium Research

Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on public equities in North America. Our investment philosophy takes a 3-5 year view on equities currently being overlooked by the market. Our research process emphasizes understanding the key performance metrics for each specific company, trustworthy management teams, unit economics, and an in-depth valuation analysis. 

Our research product includes in-depth initiation reports, research notes, thematic research pieces, and company fact sheets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>What you need to know: • The precious metals markets were down slightly in the month of June, however, we view this as a healthy consolidation period following significant price increases since November 2022.</li><li>Sentiment Update June was similar to May for the gold price, posting a modest 2.2% decline to $1,919.1/oz, while silver fell 3.1% to $22.8/oz, and copper increased 2.8% to $3.7/lb.</li><li>We believe the last two months of consolidation for precious metals and other commodities is healthy considering the significant increase in prices since November 2022.</li></ul>

What you need to know: • The precious metals markets were down slightly in the month of June, however, we view this as a healthy consolidation period following significant price increases since November 2022.Sentiment Update June was similar to May for the gold price, posting a modest 2.2% decline to $1,919.1/oz, while silver fell 3.1% to $22.8/oz, and copper increased 2.8% to $3.7/lb.We believe the last two months of consolidation for precious metals and other commodities is healthy considering the significant increase in prices since November 2022.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The precious metals and base metals markets were down in the month of May, however, we view this as a healthy pull-back following two strong months in March and April.</li><li>M&amp;A remained elevated in the month following what appears to be the peaking of rates and inflation, and persistent elevated metals prices.</li><li>Sentiment Update Following two very strong months in March and April (Gold, Silver, and the GDX were up 8.6%, 19.3%, and 18.9%, respectively), precious metals took a breath and were down slightly in the month of May.</li></ul>

The precious metals and base metals markets were down in the month of May, however, we view this as a healthy pull-back following two strong months in March and April.M&amp;A remained elevated in the month following what appears to be the peaking of rates and inflation, and persistent elevated metals prices.Sentiment Update Following two very strong months in March and April (Gold, Silver, and the GDX were up 8.6%, 19.3%, and 18.9%, respectively), precious metals took a breath and were down slightly in the month of May.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-panther-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27466:1" rel="noopener">Great Panther (GPL US)</a> is a deletion from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a>. There are a lot of float changes that will result in passive flows.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 3.4% and will result in a one-way trade of US$106m at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Most index constituents have traded poorly over the last few months and the stocks with passive inflows could outperform their peers in the short-term.</li>
</ul>



Great Panther (GPL US) is a deletion from the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US). There are a lot of float changes that will result in passive flows.
One way turnover is estimated at 3.4% and will result in a one-way trade of US$106m at the September rebalance.
Most index constituents have traded poorly over the last few months and the stocks with passive inflows could outperform their peers in the short-term.


MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: One Delete & Plenty of Float Changes

Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp-4566bc5d-6053-4c59-9b54-891e37079607" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33288:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold Corp (KGC US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fresnillo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21939:1" rel="noopener">Fresnillo PLC (FRES LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsgate-consolidated-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12544:1" rel="noopener">Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN AU)</a>, Dakota Gold are adds; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ)</a> and PGM Gold Mining are deletes.</li>
<li>One way turnover is US$390m and there is a big impact on a lot of stocks due to addition, deletion and float changes. Implementation at the close on 17 June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-minerals-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9136:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ)</a> was added to the GDXJ in March and rallied over 30% in 4 days since announcement. Buying this time will be even larger.</li>
</ul>



Kinross Gold Corp (KGC US), Fresnillo PLC (FRES LN), Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN AU), Dakota Gold are adds; Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ) and PGM Gold Mining are deletes.
One way turnover is US$390m and there is a big impact on a lot of stocks due to addition, deletion and float changes. Implementation at the close on 17 June.

Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ) was added to the GDXJ in March and rallied over 30% in 4 days since announcement. Buying this time will be even larger.


MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flows & Impact

Canada

SSR Mining Inc. operates as a precious metal mining company. The Company focuses on operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of precious metal projects which includes gold, silver, and mineral properties. SSR Mining serves electronics, coin fabrication, dentistry, jewelry, other industrial, technology, pharmaceuticals, and solar energy markets in the Americas.

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SSR Mining Inc (SSRM CN)

S&P 500, NYSE Comp, QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Suggests Local Low at Minimum

$SPX, NYSE Comp $NYA, $QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Friday and Monday Suggests Local Low at Minimum; Since late-Feb discussed an...

Vermilion Research

Mining Monthly: June Edition

What you need to know: • The precious metals markets were down slightly in the month of June, however, we view this as a healthy consolidation...

Atrium Research

Mining Monthly: May Edition

The precious metals and base metals markets were down in the month of May, however, we view this as a healthy pull-back following two strong months...

Atrium Research

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: One Delete & Plenty of Float Changes

There is only one deletion but there are a lot of stocks with free float changes. Estimated one way turnover is 3.4% resulting in a one-way trade...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flows & Impact

There are 4 adds and 2 deletes for the GDXJ Index resulting in one-way turnover of 10% and a one-way trade of US$390m. BRMS IJ has a big float...

Brian Freitas

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