IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The precondition for Sunshine Lake Pharma's privatisation of HEC Pharma was satisfied on 27 June. The offer is 0.263614 new offeror H Share per HEC share and HK$1.50 special dividend.</li>
<li>The vote on 21 July is low-risk as no independent H Shareholder comes close to the blocking stake, which is 4.61% of the outstanding shares (6.20% of H Shares).</li>
<li>The appraised value is HK$19.36, but this is a finger-in-the-sky valuation as it marginally increased from HK$19.30 despite the offeror’s weak 2024 results and limited progress on commercialising its pipeline.</li>
</ul>


The precondition for Sunshine Lake Pharma's privatisation of HEC Pharma was satisfied on 27 June. The offer is 0.263614 new offeror H Share per HEC share and HK$1.50 special dividend.
The vote on 21 July is low-risk as no independent H Shareholder comes close to the blocking stake, which is 4.61% of the outstanding shares (6.20% of H Shares).
The appraised value is HK$19.36, but this is a finger-in-the-sky valuation as it marginally increased from HK$19.30 despite the offeror’s weak 2024 results and limited progress on commercialising its pipeline.


HEC ChangJiang Pharma (1558 HK): Finally a Vote, but the Offer Value Is Wrapped in Uncertainty

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jun 6th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Cosco Shipping (1919 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jun 6th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Cosco Shipping (1919 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jun 6th): Tencent, AIA, Kuaishou

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Wide dispersion of returns has meant that industry sector investing  was a major performance contributor in Hong Kong</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lygend-resources-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36493:1" rel="noopener">Lygend Resources &amp; Technology (2245 HK)</a> brokeout after Indonesia announced a moratorium on new nickel mining permits.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-biopharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:230:1" rel="noopener">Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)</a> broke its falling wedge pattern after announcing results.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wynn-macau-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:473:1" rel="noopener">Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)</a> broke to a new low after announcing a disappointing 2Q EBITDA.  The sector is also affected by a crackdown on illegal money exchange operations.
</li>
</ul>


Wide dispersion of returns has meant that industry sector investing  was a major performance contributor in Hong Kong

Lygend Resources &amp; Technology (2245 HK) brokeout after Indonesia announced a moratorium on new nickel mining permits.  Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK) broke its falling wedge pattern after announcing results.


Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK) broke to a new low after announcing a disappointing 2Q EBITDA.  The sector is also affected by a crackdown on illegal money exchange operations.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 15)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sciclone-pharmaceuticals-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17351:1" rel="noopener">Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)</a>'s scheme document is out, and the court meeting is scheduled for 19 June. The IFA considers the HK$18.80 per share offer fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake.</li>
<li>This is a done deal. At the last close and for the 12 July payment, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 17.3%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)'s scheme document is out, and the court meeting is scheduled for 19 June. The IFA considers the HK$18.80 per share offer fair and reasonable. 
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake.
This is a done deal. At the last close and for the 12 July payment, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 17.3%, respectively.


SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Scheme Vote on 19 June

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)</a>'s pre-conditional privatisation from Sunshine Lake Pharma comprises scrip (0.263614 new offeror H Share per HEC CJ Pharma share) and cash (special dividend of HK$1.5).</li>
<li>The pre-condition is regulatory approvals from NDRC, MOFCOM, and SAFE. The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). </li>
<li>There is valuation uncertainty as the offeror is unlisted, and its valuation hinges on pipeline products. Nevertheless, with no shareholder close to a blocking stake, the deal should get up.   </li>
</ul>



Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)'s pre-conditional privatisation from Sunshine Lake Pharma comprises scrip (0.263614 new offeror H Share per HEC CJ Pharma share) and cash (special dividend of HK$1.5).
The pre-condition is regulatory approvals from NDRC, MOFCOM, and SAFE. The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). 
There is valuation uncertainty as the offeror is unlisted, and its valuation hinges on pipeline products. Nevertheless, with no shareholder close to a blocking stake, the deal should get up.   


HEC CJ Pharma (1558 HK): Pre-Conditional Share Exchange Offer from Largest Shareholder

Hong Kong

SSY Group Limited researches, develops, manufactures, and sells a wide range of pharmaceutical products.  The Company sells non PVC soft bags, PP plastic bottles, and glass bottle infusions.

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SSY Group Ltd (2005 HK)

HEC ChangJiang Pharma (1558 HK): Finally a Vote, but the Offer Value Is Wrapped in Uncertainty

The vote is low-risk. However, the appraised value is a finger-in-the-sky valuation, and perplexingly, marginally increased despite the offeror's...

Arun George

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jun 6th): Tencent, AIA, Kuaishou

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 15)

Successful returns in Hong Kong has meant getting the industry right! Lygend benefits from moratorium on new nickel mine permits. Sino Bio RX...

David Mudd

SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Scheme Vote on 19 June

SciClone has received a letter of support from Pentwater Capital Management to vote YES. Pentwater represents 4.64% of out. shares and 8.51% of...

Arun George

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HEC ChangJiang Pharma (1558 HK): Finally a Vote, but the Offer Value Is Wrapped in Uncertainty

The vote is low-risk. However, the appraised value is a finger-in-the-sky valuation, and perplexingly, marginally increased despite the offeror's...

Arun George

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jun 6th): Tencent, AIA, Kuaishou

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 15)

Successful returns in Hong Kong has meant getting the industry right! Lygend benefits from moratorium on new nickel mine permits. Sino Bio RX...

David Mudd

SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Scheme Vote on 19 June

SciClone has received a letter of support from Pentwater Capital Management to vote YES. Pentwater represents 4.64% of out. shares and 8.51% of...

Arun George

HEC CJ Pharma (1558 HK): Pre-Conditional Share Exchange Offer from Largest Shareholder

There is scrip valuation uncertainty as the offeror is unlisted, and its valuation hinges on pipeline products. Nevertheless, the deal should get...

Arun George