Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>At the December rebalance, we expect changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. Announcement is on 2 December with implementation on 16 December.</li>
<li>If added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, passive trackers will need to buy over 9 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monadelphous-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:553:1" rel="noopener">Monadelphous (MND AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ioneer-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10264:1" rel="noopener">ioneer Ltd (INR AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Shorts have dropped on nearly all potential adds and deletes over the last couple of months. With shorts at low levels, short covering will have limited impact at the rebalance.</li>
</ul>


At the December rebalance, we expect changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). Announcement is on 2 December with implementation on 16 December.
If added to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), passive trackers will need to buy over 9 days of ADV on Monadelphous (MND AU) and ioneer Ltd (INR AU).
Shorts have dropped on nearly all potential adds and deletes over the last couple of months. With shorts at low levels, short covering will have limited impact at the rebalance.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Few High Impact Adds

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&amp;P ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nearmap-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5142:1" rel="noopener">Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU)</a> could get deleted from ASX200 before the December Rebalance, triggering high-impact intra-review additions. There should be two changes in the Review itself.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> is close to becoming an ASX 50 ADD and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lendlease-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11248:1" rel="noopener">Lendlease Group (LLC AU)</a> is close to becoming an ASX 50 DEL in the December 2022 review.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&amp;P ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2022 Rebalance.

Tassal (TGR AU)  and Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU) could get deleted from ASX200 before the December Rebalance, triggering high-impact intra-review additions. There should be two changes in the Review itself.

Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) is close to becoming an ASX 50 ADD and Lendlease Group (LLC AU) is close to becoming an ASX 50 DEL in the December 2022 review.


S&P/​​​​​​ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Couple of High-Impact Intra-Review Changes Possible

Bumi Resources Minerals / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp-4566bc5d-6053-4c59-9b54-891e37079607" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33288:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold Corp (KGC US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fresnillo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21939:1" rel="noopener">Fresnillo PLC (FRES LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsgate-consolidated-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12544:1" rel="noopener">Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN AU)</a>, Dakota Gold are adds; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ)</a> and PGM Gold Mining are deletes.</li>
<li>One way turnover is US$390m and there is a big impact on a lot of stocks due to addition, deletion and float changes. Implementation at the close on 17 June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-minerals-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9136:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ)</a> was added to the GDXJ in March and rallied over 30% in 4 days since announcement. Buying this time will be even larger.</li>
</ul>



Kinross Gold Corp (KGC US), Fresnillo PLC (FRES LN), Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN AU), Dakota Gold are adds; Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ) and PGM Gold Mining are deletes.
One way turnover is US$390m and there is a big impact on a lot of stocks due to addition, deletion and float changes. Implementation at the close on 17 June.

Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ) was added to the GDXJ in March and rallied over 30% in 4 days since announcement. Buying this time will be even larger.


MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flows & Impact

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimic-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20030:1" rel="noopener">CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close of trading on 11 April.</li>
<li>The change has come earlier than expected as Hochtief hold nearly 90% of CIMIC. Positioning on HDN could be light- the stock could rally over the next couple of days.</li>
<li>There could be another ad hoc change prior to the June rebalance and then there will be more changes at the regular rebalance in June.</li>
</ul>



HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU) will replace CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close of trading on 11 April.
The change has come earlier than expected as Hochtief hold nearly 90% of CIMIC. Positioning on HDN could be light- the stock could rally over the next couple of days.
There could be another ad hoc change prior to the June rebalance and then there will be more changes at the regular rebalance in June.


ASX200 Index Rebalance: HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN) Replaces CIMIC; More Changes in May & June

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Scheme Booklet for the Bardoc Gold - St Barbara Deal was published today. The Scheme Meeting will be held virtually at 1:00pm (Perth time) 30th March 2022.</li>
<li>The Independent Expert has concluded that, in the absence of a Superior Proposal, the Scheme is fair and reasonable and therefore in the best interests of Bardoc Scheme Shareholders.</li>
<li>Below is a discussion on the developments since my previous insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bardoc-gold-st-barbara-merger" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:62699" rel="noopener">Bardoc Gold - St Barbara Merger</a>. </li>
</ul>


The Scheme Booklet for the Bardoc Gold - St Barbara Deal was published today. The Scheme Meeting will be held virtually at 1:00pm (Perth time) 30th March 2022.
The Independent Expert has concluded that, in the absence of a Superior Proposal, the Scheme is fair and reasonable and therefore in the best interests of Bardoc Scheme Shareholders.
Below is a discussion on the developments since my previous insight Bardoc Gold - St Barbara Merger. 


Bardoc - St Barbara Merger: Scheme Booklet Out; Still Wide + ASX200 Index Kicker

Australia

St. Barbara Limited is a gold exploration and production company.  The Company's exploration projects include its Southern Cross and Leonora Operations which are located in Western Australia.

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St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Few High Impact Adds

There could be two changes each for the ASX50 and ASX200 indices in December. There is a large impact expected on a couple of the adds while short...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Couple of High-Impact Intra-Review Changes Possible

The list of names leading the race to become intra-review ASX 200 additions seems interesting. If M&A events cause ASX 200 deletions, some of these...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flows & Impact

There are 4 adds and 2 deletes for the GDXJ Index resulting in one-way turnover of 10% and a one-way trade of US$390m. BRMS IJ has a big float...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Rebalance: HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN) Replaces CIMIC; More Changes in May & June

HDN AU will replace CIM AU in the ASX200 at the close on 11 April. LKE AU could replace CWN AU in May. Then there could be another 4 changes to the...

Brian Freitas

Bardoc - St Barbara Merger: Scheme Booklet Out; Still Wide + ASX200 Index Kicker

The Scheme Booklet for the Bardoc Gold - St Barbara Deal was published today. The Scheme Meeting will be held on 30th March 2022. I expect the Deal...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Few High Impact Adds

There could be two changes each for the ASX50 and ASX200 indices in December. There is a large impact expected on a couple of the adds while short...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Couple of High-Impact Intra-Review Changes Possible

The list of names leading the race to become intra-review ASX 200 additions seems interesting. If M&A events cause ASX 200 deletions, some of these...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flows & Impact

There are 4 adds and 2 deletes for the GDXJ Index resulting in one-way turnover of 10% and a one-way trade of US$390m. BRMS IJ has a big float...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Rebalance: HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN) Replaces CIMIC; More Changes in May & June

HDN AU will replace CIM AU in the ASX200 at the close on 11 April. LKE AU could replace CWN AU in May. Then there could be another 4 changes to the...

Brian Freitas

Bardoc - St Barbara Merger: Scheme Booklet Out; Still Wide + ASX200 Index Kicker

The Scheme Booklet for the Bardoc Gold - St Barbara Deal was published today. The Scheme Meeting will be held on 30th March 2022. I expect the Deal...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Few High Impact Adds

S&P/ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Couple of High-Impact Intra-Review Changes Possible