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Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In Depth: European Automakers Look to China as EV Gap Widens</li><li>Standard Chartered CEO Says Global Banks Can’t Ignore China</li><li>Yuan Hits Highest Level Since May 2023 Despite Dollar Rebound</li><li>China Posts First Fiscal Revenue Decline Since Pandemic</li></ul>

In Depth: European Automakers Look to China as EV Gap WidensStandard Chartered CEO Says Global Banks Can’t Ignore ChinaYuan Hits Highest Level Since May 2023 Despite Dollar ReboundChina Posts First Fiscal Revenue Decline Since Pandemic

CX Daily: European Automakers Look to China as EV Gap Widens 

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>HKMA data shows the loss loan ratio in HK is up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25. These are the worst of the worst bad loans </li>
<li>Substandard loan ratio in HK is up 4.7x over the same period, and this bucket can gradually migrate to worse buckets, requiring more credit costs</li>
<li>Overdue loan ratio and rescheduled loan ratio in HK is up 5.4x over this period, and these are not technically NPLs</li>
</ul>


HKMA data shows the loss loan ratio in HK is up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25. These are the worst of the worst bad loans 
Substandard loan ratio in HK is up 4.7x over the same period, and this bucket can gradually migrate to worse buckets, requiring more credit costs
Overdue loan ratio and rescheduled loan ratio in HK is up 5.4x over this period, and these are not technically NPLs


HSBC - Loss Loans up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25 in HKMA Industry Data. Hang Seng Bank Buyout, Now?

<ul>
<li>US banks show continued strength and the overall economy, from the weekly balance sheet data and the CP market</li>
<li>Total loans continue to accelerate in most recent week to 5.4% and loan loss reserves show almost no growth, for many weeks</li>
<li>CP growth rate is less, but it remains high at 26% and this is a good sign of industrial demand for working capital</li>
</ul>


US banks show continued strength and the overall economy, from the weekly balance sheet data and the CP market
Total loans continue to accelerate in most recent week to 5.4% and loan loss reserves show almost no growth, for many weeks
CP growth rate is less, but it remains high at 26% and this is a good sign of industrial demand for working capital


US Banks - Further Accelerating Loans 5.4% YoY, Benign 0.56% LLR YoY, Credit Conditions Very Good

<ul>
<li>New high frequency data from the Fed in its weekly H8 series for US banks, shows loan growth at 5.22% YoY in week 12 November</li>
<li>There has not been a higher rate in a long time, since mid FY23 where the data is distorted from a low base effect in FY22</li>
<li>Steepening slope of weekly loan growth together with no real rise in loan loss allowance, gives a strong view of US credit metrics, demand</li>
</ul>


New high frequency data from the Fed in its weekly H8 series for US banks, shows loan growth at 5.22% YoY in week 12 November
There has not been a higher rate in a long time, since mid FY23 where the data is distorted from a low base effect in FY22
Steepening slope of weekly loan growth together with no real rise in loan loss allowance, gives a strong view of US credit metrics, demand


US Banks - New HFD Shows Loans Accelerating Further at 5.22% YoY, Highest Pace in 2 Years

<ul>
<li>There is good HFD out from the Fed on weekly balance sheets and commercial paper outstanding, suggesting continued underlying strength</li>
<li>CP outstanding for non-financials is rising at rate of 19% YoY in most recent week, which is relatively strong growth for short duration working capital</li>
<li>Weekly loan growth data is 5.09% YoY for week of 5 November, one of highest growth rates in recent weeks, with LDR expansion accelerating</li>
</ul>


There is good HFD out from the Fed on weekly balance sheets and commercial paper outstanding, suggesting continued underlying strength
CP outstanding for non-financials is rising at rate of 19% YoY in most recent week, which is relatively strong growth for short duration working capital
Weekly loan growth data is 5.09% YoY for week of 5 November, one of highest growth rates in recent weeks, with LDR expansion accelerating


US Banks - CP at +19% YoY, LDR Expansion Accelerates, Weekly Loans +5% YoY

United Kingdom

Standard Chartered is a British multinational banking and financial services company that offers corporate, institutional, wealth, and retail banking services. It provides global markets trading, lending and financial solutions, transaction services, and wealth solutions. The company is headquartered in London, England, and was founded in 1853.

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Standard Chartered (2888 HK)

CX Daily: European Automakers Look to China as EV Gap Widens

TOP STORIES In Depth: European Automakers Look to China as EV Gap Widens China’s meteoric rise as a global electric vehicle (EV) powerhouse is...

Caixin Global

HSBC - Loss Loans up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25 in HKMA Industry Data. Hang Seng Bank Buyout, Now?

HSBC interview with Bloomberg shows another set of cost-cutting efforts. For anybody following this bank for ~20 years, a pattern is clear. It's...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Further Accelerating Loans 5.4% YoY, Benign 0.56% LLR YoY, Credit Conditions Very Good

US banks show continued strength in weekly balance sheets, accelerating loan growth at 5.43% YoY with only 0.56% YoY growth in loan loss reserves....

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - New HFD Shows Loans Accelerating Further at 5.22% YoY, Highest Pace in 2 Years

New weekly data from the Fed shows loans accelerating for US banks and with loan loss reserves still stable, suggesting strong credit market, overall.

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - CP at +19% YoY, LDR Expansion Accelerates, Weekly Loans +5% YoY

High frequency data from Fed on commercial paper and balance sheets is positive. Loans are accelerating to 5% YoY and CP is at 19% YoY, with LDR...

Daniel Tabbush

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