Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

It is certainly possible, that Standard Chartered Bank’s (STAN) total impairment costs remain low for the remainder of the year, as they were in 1Q17. But it is highly unlikely. The bank’s own statement seems to caution against annualizing this figure.  The positive growth in STAN’s 1Q17 profit is 70% explained by the reduction in impairment costs. The semi-euphoria surrounding the bank’s reported profit yesterday will dissipate as impairment costs adjust to higher levels during later quarters…

It is certainly possible, that Standard Chartered Bank’s (STAN) total impairment costs remain low for the remainder of the year, as they were in 1Q17. But it is highly unlikely. The bank’s own statement seems to caution against annualizing this figure.  The positive growth in STAN’s 1Q17 profit is 70% explained by the reduction in impairment costs. The semi-euphoria surrounding the bank’s reported profit yesterday will dissipate as impairment costs adjust to higher levels during later quarters…

STAN: Best Credit Metrics in Nearly a Decade?

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China’s stretching credit cycle, combined with rising UK unsecured credit and household leverage, have returned the risk environment to a standard one. Despite this, countercyclical policy is at its stimulative extreme.</li>
<li>
With the risk of a referendum induced recession subsided and forward guidance almost expired, the FPC appears keen to tighten. I expect a countercyclical capital buffer hike to 50bp in June and 100bp in December, assuming the credit cycle stays strong. A reworked leverage ratio…</li>
</ul>


China’s stretching credit cycle, combined with rising UK unsecured credit and household leverage, have returned the risk environment to a standard one. Despite this, countercyclical policy is at its stimulative extreme.

With the risk of a referendum induced recession subsided and forward guidance almost expired, the FPC appears keen to tighten. I expect a countercyclical capital buffer hike to 50bp in June and 100bp in December, assuming the credit cycle stays strong. A reworked leverage ratio…


BoE Set to Tighten Macroprudential Policy

Head of Research at Fusion Wealth Management Ltd

Michael McGaughy

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value.  I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality people, have corporate structures that align minority and majority shareholder interests and trade at valuations that are below fair value if not outright cheap. This note is actually not about any of that and instead just a quick one about bitcoin and how my initial skepticism may have been wrong.  I usually don’t write “macro” or ‘thought pieces’…

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value.  I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality people, have corporate structures that align minority and majority shareholder interests and trade at valuations that are below fair value if not outright cheap. This note is actually not about any of that and instead just a quick one about bitcoin and how my initial skepticism may have been wrong.  I usually don’t write “macro” or ‘thought pieces’…

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Eurozone inflation announced today came in "on target" at 2% for the first time in 4 years!! To give credit where credit is due, between 2001 and October 2007 the ECB had a pretty impeccable record when it came to inflation targeting. CPI as measured by Eurostat oscillated between a low of 1.6% and a high of 2.5% and averaged 2.1%. However, 2007 seems a long time ago now and in the past decade or so CPI has been at 2% on just four occasions prior to today: on each of these CPI passed through 2%…

Eurozone inflation announced today came in "on target" at 2% for the first time in 4 years!! To give credit where credit is due, between 2001 and October 2007 the ECB had a pretty impeccable record when it came to inflation targeting. CPI as measured by Eurostat oscillated between a low of 1.6% and a high of 2.5% and averaged 2.1%. However, 2007 seems a long time ago now and in the past decade or so CPI has been at 2% on just four occasions prior to today: on each of these CPI passed through 2%…

The Personal consumption expenditure numbers in the US were released today. Income grew 0.4% MoM, an annualised rate of nearly 5% but the deflator matched the pace of growth so real incomes were stagnant. The PCE deflator is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. The cynic would say this is because it perennially seems to undershoot CPI. However, even on this low-ball measure of inflation, the year on year rate of 1.9% is almost smack on the Fed's inflation target of 2% and the last 3 months…

The Personal consumption expenditure numbers in the US were released today. Income grew 0.4% MoM, an annualised rate of nearly 5% but the deflator matched the pace of growth so real incomes were stagnant. The PCE deflator is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. The cynic would say this is because it perennially seems to undershoot CPI. However, even on this low-ball measure of inflation, the year on year rate of 1.9% is almost smack on the Fed's inflation target of 2% and the last 3 months…

Hong Kong

Standard Chartered plc is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.  The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

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Standard Chartered (2888 HK)

STAN: Best Credit Metrics in Nearly a Decade?

It is certainly possible, that Standard Chartered Bank’s (STAN) total impairment costs remain low for the remainder of the year, as they were in...

Daniel Tabbush

BoE Set to Tighten Macroprudential Policy

China’s stretching credit cycle, combined with rising UK unsecured credit and household leverage, have returned the risk environment to a standard...

Phil Rush

Bitcoin - The View From Lagos

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value. I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality...

Michael McGaughy

Money Matters: Deutschland Über Alles?

Eurozone inflation announced today came in "on target" at 2% for the first time in 4 years!! To give credit where credit is due, between 2001 and...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: Ready for Lift-Off?

The Personal consumption expenditure numbers in the US were released today. Income grew 0.4% MoM, an annualised rate of nearly 5% but the deflator...

Stewart Paterson

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