Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We believe that the credit metric deterioration at HSBC is not well flagged by the bank, or well understood in the market. </li>
<li>There is substantial growth in credit costs in its HK business, where this has been the most important driver of value for HSBC</li>
<li>CRE credit metrics are of concern in HK and in Mainland China, where Stage 2 loans are rising substantially, from Stage 1 loan bucket</li>
</ul>


We believe that the credit metric deterioration at HSBC is not well flagged by the bank, or well understood in the market. 
There is substantial growth in credit costs in its HK business, where this has been the most important driver of value for HSBC
CRE credit metrics are of concern in HK and in Mainland China, where Stage 2 loans are rising substantially, from Stage 1 loan bucket


HSBC - 1H25 Tables & Data, Clear Risks, Even if Not Stated in Headlines

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Regional rotation places DM Europe as clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds.</li>
<li>Seventy-Five percent of funds are overweight UK stocks, with 69.6% overweight France and 70.2% overweight the Netherlands</li>
<li>Novo Nordisk, ASML, Schneider Electric, and AstraZeneca remain key holdings, while a resurgence from European banks and select names like Spotify and LSEG is also starting to stand out.</li>
</ul>


Regional rotation places DM Europe as clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds.
Seventy-Five percent of funds are overweight UK stocks, with 69.6% overweight France and 70.2% overweight the Netherlands
Novo Nordisk, ASML, Schneider Electric, and AstraZeneca remain key holdings, while a resurgence from European banks and select names like Spotify and LSEG is also starting to stand out.


Europe Reasserted: Consensus Builds as Europe Reclaims Ground from the U.S.

<ul>
<li>New World Development is now warning of losses from impairments in HK and China</li>
<li>We have already seen this some weeks ago from China Vanke, conditions still weakening</li>
<li>Banks in Hong Kong and China face more bad loans, but also those with exposures in the regions, like HSBC, STAN and Singapore's banks</li>
</ul>


New World Development is now warning of losses from impairments in HK and China
We have already seen this some weeks ago from China Vanke, conditions still weakening
Banks in Hong Kong and China face more bad loans, but also those with exposures in the regions, like HSBC, STAN and Singapore's banks


Singapore and HK Banks - New World Impairments Are Significant, Flow Through to Banks Is Real

<ul>
<li>Strong weekly data from the CP market and from granular loan data of US banks</li>
<li>C&amp;I type lending is also included in the CP market and other loans to FI's</li>
<li>Loans to other FI's is up 21% YoY and C&amp;I lending, reached a new high since early FY24</li>
</ul>


Strong weekly data from the CP market and from granular loan data of US banks
C&amp;I type lending is also included in the CP market and other loans to FI's
Loans to other FI's is up 21% YoY and C&amp;I lending, reached a new high since early FY24


US Banks - Granular Weekly Data Suggest C&I Is Robust, Underlying Economy, Credit Metrics

<ul>
<li>In the last week of April, US banks saw USD22bn higher 'loans to non-depository financial institutions. Much of this will be C&amp;I through private credit. </li>
<li>Total cash holdings moved down in the same week from USD3,240bn to USD3,072bn, marking a significant delta in risk aversion - toward risk, not away.</li>
<li>Deposits are still high at USD18,058bn which can move back into markets, where non-large time deposits appear to be doing this, over month of April</li>
</ul>


In the last week of April, US banks saw USD22bn higher 'loans to non-depository financial institutions. Much of this will be C&amp;I through private credit. 
Total cash holdings moved down in the same week from USD3,240bn to USD3,072bn, marking a significant delta in risk aversion - toward risk, not away.
Deposits are still high at USD18,058bn which can move back into markets, where non-large time deposits appear to be doing this, over month of April


US Banks - Last Week of April Saw $22bn Loan Rise, With Cash Down $168bn

United Kingdom

Standard Chartered is a global bank providing corporate and investment banking, wealth and retail banking, and financial markets products and services. Its main activities include global markets trading, lending and financial solutions, transaction services, and wealth solutions. The company serves a diverse clientele across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, as well as in Europe and the Americas. Headquartered in London, England, UK, the company was founded in 1853.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Standard Chartered (STAN LN)

HSBC - 1H25 Tables & Data, Clear Risks, Even if Not Stated in Headlines

HSBC 1H25 data release has a lot of granular data, which does not instill a huge amount of confidence in HK or CH credit metrics.

Daniel Tabbush

Europe Reasserted: Consensus Builds as Europe Reclaims Ground from the U.S.

Regional rotation places Developed Europe as a clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds, with over 90% of funds positioned ahead...

Steven Holden

Singapore and HK Banks - New World Impairments Are Significant, Flow Through to Banks Is Real

This is relevant to new insight on HK banks with worsening HFD for LDR and real estate lending growth now at most negative rates in the HKMA...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Granular Weekly Data Suggest C&I Is Robust, Underlying Economy, Credit Metrics

There is good new high-frequency data from US banks and the Commercial Paper market suggesting a strong underlying economy for core C&I credit.

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Last Week of April Saw $22bn Loan Rise, With Cash Down $168bn

Weekly data from US banks shows very strong rise in loans to other FIs and an exceptionally strong decline in total cash assets. View this...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)