Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Starbucks had a phenomenal quarter on the revenue front as the company gained powerful momentum with a staggering 73% jump in comparable-store sales.</li><li>There was a 75% increase in the total transactions at Starbucks outlets across the globe but the management did carry out a marginal drop in average pricing.</li><li>Inflationary pressure associated with raw material prices and logistics costs did weigh on Starbucks’ margins and the company also faces high labor costs which could be a red flag.</li></ul>

Starbucks had a phenomenal quarter on the revenue front as the company gained powerful momentum with a staggering 73% jump in comparable-store sales.There was a 75% increase in the total transactions at Starbucks outlets across the globe but the management did carry out a marginal drop in average pricing.Inflationary pressure associated with raw material prices and logistics costs did weigh on Starbucks’ margins and the company also faces high labor costs which could be a red flag.

Starbucks Corporation - Investment Thesis

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<p>On 27 July, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/e-mart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6993:1" rel="noopener">E Mart Inc (139480 KS)</a> announced that it will take over the control of Starbucks Korea. Prior to this announcement, Emart and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/starbucks-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7641:1" rel="noopener">Starbucks Corp (SBUX US)</a> owned 50% of Starbucks Korea, respectively. In this transaction, Emart will purchase an additional 17.5% stake in Starbucks Korea for 474.3 billion won (US$421 million) and GIC (Singapore) will purchase the remaining 32.5% stake in Starbucks Korea.</p><div class="content-highlight">
<p>The implied valuation of 2.7 trillion won for Starbucks Korea in the acquisition of the additional 17.5% stake from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/starbucks-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7641:1" rel="noopener">Starbucks Corp (SBUX US)</a> by Emart suggests a P/E of 23.5x, using the average annual net profit of Starbucks Korea in the past three years. Hence, this M&amp;A deal for Starbucks Korea was completed at nearly 50% discount to the valuation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/starbucks-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7641:1" rel="noopener">Starbucks Corp (SBUX US)</a>.</p>
<p><strong>IPO of Starbucks Korea &amp; SSG.com/Ebay Korea in the Next 3 Years - </strong>In the next three years, Emart is likely to IPO its key affiliates including Starbucks Korea (67.5% ownership) and SSG.com/Ebay Korea. Emart has agreed to acquire an 80% in Ebay Korea. We believe that these IPOs are likely to have a positive impact on the Emart shares as more investors try to value them on their potential market values, rather than book values. </p>
</div>

On 27 July, E Mart Inc (139480 KS) announced that it will take over the control of Starbucks Korea. Prior to this announcement, Emart and Starbucks Corp (SBUX US) owned 50% of Starbucks Korea, respectively. In this transaction, Emart will purchase an additional 17.5% stake in Starbucks Korea for 474.3 billion won (US$421 million) and GIC (Singapore) will purchase the remaining 32.5% stake in Starbucks Korea.
The implied valuation of 2.7 trillion won for Starbucks Korea in the acquisition of the additional 17.5% stake from Starbucks Corp (SBUX US) by Emart suggests a P/E of 23.5x, using the average annual net profit of Starbucks Korea in the past three years. Hence, this M&amp;A deal for Starbucks Korea was completed at nearly 50% discount to the valuation of Starbucks Corp (SBUX US).
IPO of Starbucks Korea &amp; SSG.com/Ebay Korea in the Next 3 Years - In the next three years, Emart is likely to IPO its key affiliates including Starbucks Korea (67.5% ownership) and SSG.com/Ebay Korea. Emart has agreed to acquire an 80% in Ebay Korea. We believe that these IPOs are likely to have a positive impact on the Emart shares as more investors try to value them on their potential market values, rather than book values. 


Starbucks Korea - Emart Takes Ownership Control & Prepares for an IPO

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Historically, tea dominated the Asian beverages market, but over the last few years we are seeing a renewed interest in coffee and coffee-based beverages among Asians. Meanwhile, the tea industry is focusing on new products/trends such as bubble tea and fruit-infused tea to counter the threat posed by coffee as well as to provide a growth driver to counteract stagnant demand.</p><p>The younger generation favors the bubble tea and fruit tea trends, meaning that teahouses have been a tremendous success over the last four to five years. However, we think bubble tea and fruit tea lack the ability to encourage consumers to make regular purchases, affecting the long-term foot traffic of teahouses. Meanwhile, tea is generally less profitable than coffee. On the other hand, the coffee trend is more long-lasting. It also has the potential to generate superior returns/profitability over the medium/long term.</p><p>Nevertheless, there are both good apples and bad apples in both camps (coffee and tea). In this insight, we take a look at a few coffee and tea chains in China, Japan, and South Korea, assessing the long-term investment and business cases for our top picks in those markets.</p><h2>What’s Original?</h2><p>In this original, we discuss the value chain, costs of production and global demand and supply conditions in the tea and coffee markets. Additionally, we look at the emerging trends and the unit cost dynamics within tea/coffee chains in Asia, focusing on the three biggest tea/coffee markets in the region (China, Japan and South Korea). Furthermore, we briefly talk about popular tea/coffee chains and highlight the long-term investment and business cases for our top picks in the above markets.</p>

Historically, tea dominated the Asian beverages market, but over the last few years we are seeing a renewed interest in coffee and coffee-based beverages among Asians. Meanwhile, the tea industry is focusing on new products/trends such as bubble tea and fruit-infused tea to counter the threat posed by coffee as well as to provide a growth driver to counteract stagnant demand.The younger generation favors the bubble tea and fruit tea trends, meaning that teahouses have been a tremendous success over the last four to five years. However, we think bubble tea and fruit tea lack the ability to encourage consumers to make regular purchases, affecting the long-term foot traffic of teahouses. Meanwhile, tea is generally less profitable than coffee. On the other hand, the coffee trend is more long-lasting. It also has the potential to generate superior returns/profitability over the medium/long term.Nevertheless, there are both good apples and bad apples in both camps (coffee and tea). In this insight, we take a look at a few coffee and tea chains in China, Japan, and South Korea, assessing the long-term investment and business cases for our top picks in those markets.What’s Original?In this original, we discuss the value chain, costs of production and global demand and supply conditions in the tea and coffee markets. Additionally, we look at the emerging trends and the unit cost dynamics within tea/coffee chains in Asia, focusing on the three biggest tea/coffee markets in the region (China, Japan and South Korea). Furthermore, we briefly talk about popular tea/coffee chains and highlight the long-term investment and business cases for our top picks in the above markets.

Tea/Coffee Chains: As Asians Acquire a Taste for Coffee, Novelty Seems Like the Way Forward for Tea

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nayuki-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32149:1" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK)</a> is the second-largest premium teahouse chain in China accounting for 18.9% of China’s premium modern teahouse market as measured by total retail consumption value in 2020, according to CIC.</p>
<p>Nayuki will commence trading on Wednesday, 30 June. Nayuki priced its IPO at HK$19.80 and the shares <a href="https://inews.hket.com/article/2993858/%E3%80%90%E5%A5%88%E9%9B%AA%E7%9A%84%E8%8C%B6%E6%9A%97%E7%9B%A4%E3%80%91%E5%A5%88%E9%9B%AA%E7%9A%84%E8%8C%B62150%E5%A0%B4%E5%A4%96%E6%9A%97%E7%9B%A4%E5%8D%8711-%E3%80%80%E4%B8%80%E6%89%8B%E5%B8%B3%E9%9D%A2%E8%B3%BA1100%E5%85%83?mtc=40001&amp;srkw=IPO%E6%9C%80%E5%BF%AB%E6%9C%80%E9%BD%8A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stood 11% higher</a> at HK$22.00 in the grey market.</p>
</div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-holdings-ipo-initiation-a-new-leaf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48532" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings IPO Initiation: A New Leaf</a>, we noted that premium teahouses have rapidly gained popularity in China as they bring new tea-drinking experiences and benefit from the structural trend of consumer’s consumption upgrades driven by higher disposable income. We opined that Nayuki has the right ingredients to offer investors an attractive play on this market. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-holdings-ipo-drinking-habits" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52873" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings IPO: Drinking Habits</a>, we noted that recent results (disclosed in the PHIP) show that Nayuki is well-positioned as a post-COVID-19 recovery play.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-holdings-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53291" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that Nayuki is attractively valued to its peer group for its forecasted earnings growth i.e. on a PEG basis. We recommended participating at the low end of the IPO price range due to the decent upside compared to our base-case DCF valuation.</p>
</div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Updating for the final IPO net raise and FX, our base-case DCF derived price target is HK$19.45 per share. Nevertheless, our DCF sensitivity and relative valuation analysis show that the grey market price is justifiable.  </p></div></div></div>


Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK) is the second-largest premium teahouse chain in China accounting for 18.9% of China’s premium modern teahouse market as measured by total retail consumption value in 2020, according to CIC.
Nayuki will commence trading on Wednesday, 30 June. Nayuki priced its IPO at HK$19.80 and the shares stood 11% higher at HK$22.00 in the grey market.

In Nayuki Holdings IPO Initiation: A New Leaf, we noted that premium teahouses have rapidly gained popularity in China as they bring new tea-drinking experiences and benefit from the structural trend of consumer’s consumption upgrades driven by higher disposable income. We opined that Nayuki has the right ingredients to offer investors an attractive play on this market. In Nayuki Holdings IPO: Drinking Habits, we noted that recent results (disclosed in the PHIP) show that Nayuki is well-positioned as a post-COVID-19 recovery play.
In Nayuki Holdings IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that Nayuki is attractively valued to its peer group for its forecasted earnings growth i.e. on a PEG basis. We recommended participating at the low end of the IPO price range due to the decent upside compared to our base-case DCF valuation.
Updating for the final IPO net raise and FX, our base-case DCF derived price target is HK$19.45 per share. Nevertheless, our DCF sensitivity and relative valuation analysis show that the grey market price is justifiable.  

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nayuki-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32149:1" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK)</a> is the second-largest premium teahouse chain in China accounting for 18.9% of China’s premium modern teahouse market as measured by total retail consumption value in 2020, according to CIC.</p><div><p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$17.20-19.80 per share, Nayuki will have a market cap of HK$29,500.2-33,959.5 million ($3.8-4.4 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$4,521.3 million ($582 million). </p></div><div>
<p>Five cornerstone investors will purchase $155 million worth of the offer shares (25.25% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). The cornerstone investors are UBS Asset Management, China Universal Asset Management, GF Fund, China Southern Asset Management and CCB International. </p>
<div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-holdings-ipo-initiation-a-new-leaf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48532" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings IPO Initiation: A New Leaf</a>, we noted that premium teahouses have rapidly gained popularity in China as they bring new tea-drinking experiences and benefit from the structural trend of consumer’s consumption upgrades driven by higher disposable income. We opined that Nayuki has the right ingredients to offer investors an attractive play on this market. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-holdings-ipo-drinking-habits" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52873" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings IPO: Drinking Habits</a>, we noted that recent results (disclosed in the PHIP) show that Nayuki is well-positioned as a post-COVID-19 recovery play.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Based on our forecasts, Nayuki is attractively valued to its peer group for its forecasted earnings growth i.e. on a PEG basis. Overall, we are inclined to participate at the low end of the IPO price range due to the decent upside compared to our base-case DCF valuation of HK$19.49 per share.</p></div>
</div>
<p></p>
</div>

Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK) is the second-largest premium teahouse chain in China accounting for 18.9% of China’s premium modern teahouse market as measured by total retail consumption value in 2020, according to CIC.At the proposed IPO price range of HK$17.20-19.80 per share, Nayuki will have a market cap of HK$29,500.2-33,959.5 million ($3.8-4.4 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$4,521.3 million ($582 million). 
Five cornerstone investors will purchase $155 million worth of the offer shares (25.25% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). The cornerstone investors are UBS Asset Management, China Universal Asset Management, GF Fund, China Southern Asset Management and CCB International. 

In Nayuki Holdings IPO Initiation: A New Leaf, we noted that premium teahouses have rapidly gained popularity in China as they bring new tea-drinking experiences and benefit from the structural trend of consumer’s consumption upgrades driven by higher disposable income. We opined that Nayuki has the right ingredients to offer investors an attractive play on this market. In Nayuki Holdings IPO: Drinking Habits, we noted that recent results (disclosed in the PHIP) show that Nayuki is well-positioned as a post-COVID-19 recovery play.
Based on our forecasts, Nayuki is attractively valued to its peer group for its forecasted earnings growth i.e. on a PEG basis. Overall, we are inclined to participate at the low end of the IPO price range due to the decent upside compared to our base-case DCF valuation of HK$19.49 per share.




United States

Starbucks Corporation retails, roasts, and provides its own brand of specialty coffee. The Company operates retail locations worldwide and sells whole bean coffees through its sales group, direct response business, supermarkets, and on the World Wide Web. Starbucks also produces and sells bottled coffee drinks and a line of ice creams.

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Starbucks Corp (SBUX US)

Starbucks Corporation - Investment Thesis

Starbucks had a phenomenal quarter on the revenue front as the company gained powerful momentum with a staggering 73% jump in comparable-store...

Baptista Research

Starbucks Korea - Emart Takes Ownership Control & Prepares for an IPO

Emart announced that it will take over the control of Starbucks Korea. In the next three years, Emart is likely to IPO its key affiliates including...

Douglas Kim

Tea/Coffee Chains: As Asians Acquire a Taste for Coffee, Novelty Seems Like the Way Forward for Tea

Historically, tea dominated the Asian beverages market, but over the last few years we are seeing a renewed interest in coffee and coffee-based...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Nayuki Holdings IPO: Trading Debut

Nayuki priced its IPO at HK$19.80 and the shares stood 11% higher at HK$22.00 in the grey market. Our DCF sensitivity and relative valuation...

Arun George

Nayuki Holdings IPO: Valuation Insights

We are inclined to participate at the low end of the IPO price range due to the decent upside compared to our base-case DCF valuation of HK$19.49...

Arun George

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