Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following existing home last week, new home sales also posted positive YoY growth. </li>
<li>LI is getting ready for its major battle of the year with BEV launch. It is focused, but we doubt it is enough;</li>
<li>MNSO guided down its C4Q24 and we believe it will miss 2025 as well. Offline grocery is under constant assault by O2O and online e-commerce. </li>
</ul>


Following existing home last week, new home sales also posted positive YoY growth. 
LI is getting ready for its major battle of the year with BEV launch. It is focused, but we doubt it is enough;
MNSO guided down its C4Q24 and we believe it will miss 2025 as well. Offline grocery is under constant assault by O2O and online e-commerce. 


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 9/52] New Home Sales Also Turned Positive YoY

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a>'s IPO price of HK$202.5 looks attractive, as it is priced at 16.6x FY24 and 13.5x FY25 PER, below the mainland China peer average. </li>
<li>We estimate a P/B of 4.6x, putting it marginally lower than the sector best-fit line. We think there is potential for at least a 20-30% upside after the IPO. </li>
<li>MIXUE offers the possibility to participate in the spin-off of its overseas businesses in the medium term, which is explicitly spelt out as a plan.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (MIX HK)'s IPO price of HK$202.5 looks attractive, as it is priced at 16.6x FY24 and 13.5x FY25 PER, below the mainland China peer average. 
We estimate a P/B of 4.6x, putting it marginally lower than the sector best-fit line. We think there is potential for at least a 20-30% upside after the IPO. 
MIXUE offers the possibility to participate in the spin-off of its overseas businesses in the medium term, which is explicitly spelt out as a plan.


MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Reasonably Attractive Pricing

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Mixue Group is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in the coming weeks. Mixue Group plans to raise about US$500 million from its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>The company has an excellent income statement with notable growth in sales and profits in the past four years.</li>
<li>Net margin improved from 15.7% in 2023 and 18.7% in 1Q-3Q 2024, driven by higher sales base and lower major operating costs as a percentage of sales</li>
</ul>


Mixue Group is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in the coming weeks. Mixue Group plans to raise about US$500 million from its Hong Kong IPO.
The company has an excellent income statement with notable growth in sales and profits in the past four years.
Net margin improved from 15.7% in 2023 and 18.7% in 1Q-3Q 2024, driven by higher sales base and lower major operating costs as a percentage of sales


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a> has a whopping market share of 32.7% in 2023, based on number of cups sold. It also has the highest profit in the sector.</li>
<li>With a strong profit record and net cash, it is a leader that captures industry growth. Its extensive network targets low-tier cities' potential and the franchise model drives expansion.  </li>
<li>It justifies trading on a premium to sector average PER of 19.6x for FY25. If aligning P/B with ROE on the best-fit line, it should be priced at 5.1x pre-money.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (MIX HK) has a whopping market share of 32.7% in 2023, based on number of cups sold. It also has the highest profit in the sector.
With a strong profit record and net cash, it is a leader that captures industry growth. Its extensive network targets low-tier cities' potential and the franchise model drives expansion.  
It justifies trading on a premium to sector average PER of 19.6x for FY25. If aligning P/B with ROE on the best-fit line, it should be priced at 5.1x pre-money.


MIXUE Group IPO: The Leading Player that Justifies a Premium

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Starbucks’ CEO of China denied the rumor that Starbucks will sell its Chinese businesses.</li>
<li>Chow Tai Fook closed 239 stores from March to September.</li>
<li>SAIC and Volkswagen will extend their joint venture to 2040.</li>
</ul>


Starbucks’ CEO of China denied the rumor that Starbucks will sell its Chinese businesses.
Chow Tai Fook closed 239 stores from March to September.
SAIC and Volkswagen will extend their joint venture to 2040.


China Consumption Weekly (2 Dec 2024): Starbucks, Chow Tai Fook, SAIC, Volkswagen, BYD

United States

Starbucks Corporation retails, roasts, and provides its own brand of specialty coffee. The Company operates retail locations worldwide and sells whole bean coffees through its sales group, direct response business, supermarkets, and on the World Wide Web. Starbucks also produces and sells bottled coffee drinks and a line of ice creams.

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Starbucks Corp (SBUX US)

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 9/52] New Home Sales Also Turned Positive YoY

Latest week saw positive YoY growth in new home sales, LI prepares for major battle with BEV launch, MNSO guidance down for C4Q24 and likely to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Reasonably Attractive Pricing

MIXUE's IPO is attractive, priced below China's peer average with a potential for at least 20-30% upside post-IPO. Opportunity to participate in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Mixue Group IPO Preview

Mixue Group is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in the coming weeks. Mixue Group plans to raise about US$500 million from its Hong...

Douglas Kim

MIXUE Group IPO: The Leading Player that Justifies a Premium

Mixue has a 32.7% share in the freshly-made drinks market and the highest profit, poised for growth in low-tier cities with the franchise model....

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Consumption Weekly (2 Dec 2024): Starbucks, Chow Tai Fook, SAIC, Volkswagen, BYD

Starbucks’ CEO of China denied the rumor that Starbucks will sell its Chinese businesses. Chow Tai Fook closed 239 stores. SAIC and Volkswagen will...

Ming Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 9/52] New Home Sales Also Turned Positive YoY

​Latest week saw positive YoY growth in new home sales, LI prepares for major battle with BEV launch, MNSO guidance down for C4Q24 and likely to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Reasonably Attractive Pricing

​MIXUE's IPO is attractive, priced below China's peer average with a potential for at least 20-30% upside post-IPO. Opportunity to participate in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Mixue Group IPO Preview

Mixue Group is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in the coming weeks. Mixue Group plans to raise about US$500 million from its Hong...

Douglas Kim

MIXUE Group IPO: The Leading Player that Justifies a Premium

​Mixue has a 32.7% share in the freshly-made drinks market and the highest profit, poised for growth in low-tier cities with the franchise model....

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Consumption Weekly (2 Dec 2024): Starbucks, Chow Tai Fook, SAIC, Volkswagen, BYD

Starbucks’ CEO of China denied the rumor that Starbucks will sell its Chinese businesses. Chow Tai Fook closed 239 stores. SAIC and Volkswagen will...

Ming Lu

Latest week saw positive YoY growth in new home sales, LI prepares for major battle with BEV launch, MNSO guidance down for C4Q24 and likely to...

MIXUE's IPO is attractive, priced below China's peer average with a potential for at least 20-30% upside post-IPO. Opportunity to participate in...

Mixue has a 32.7% share in the freshly-made drinks market and the highest profit, poised for growth in low-tier cities with the franchise model....