Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US banks report weekly balance sheets, and the data is an good gauge for what we can expect during 1Q25 for profit, and especially core income, at least directionally. </li>
<li>The most recent loan growth data is now even stronger than before, and this is what matters: the weekly data is accelerating. </li>
<li>The pace of weekly YoY growth now is 2.7% during 1Q25 while this was 2.0% during 1Q24, the second derivative is also improving vastly, now up 33% YoY</li>
</ul>


US banks report weekly balance sheets, and the data is an good gauge for what we can expect during 1Q25 for profit, and especially core income, at least directionally. 
The most recent loan growth data is now even stronger than before, and this is what matters: the weekly data is accelerating. 
The pace of weekly YoY growth now is 2.7% during 1Q25 while this was 2.0% during 1Q24, the second derivative is also improving vastly, now up 33% YoY


US Banks - Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24

<ul>
<li>The most recent loan officer survey release from the Fed shows a very strong outlook for US banks during 1Q25 and likely during FY25 as a whole</li>
<li>Core C&amp;I loan demand is rising sharply in the survey and tightening standards on CRE loans are loosening dramatically</li>
<li>Weekly balance sheet data for US banks shows better delta in loans through 19 Feb week, stagnating LLR, and rising LDR</li>
</ul>


The most recent loan officer survey release from the Fed shows a very strong outlook for US banks during 1Q25 and likely during FY25 as a whole
Core C&amp;I loan demand is rising sharply in the survey and tightening standards on CRE loans are loosening dramatically
Weekly balance sheet data for US banks shows better delta in loans through 19 Feb week, stagnating LLR, and rising LDR


US Banks - Senior Loan Officer Survey, Weekly B/S Data, Suggest Strong US Bank Profits

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively. For 2024, revenue is projected to drop 8.2% while EPS is estimated to fall 30.3%. </li>
<li>BP anticipates weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity to impact profits by USD 100–300 million QoQ, with oil trading performance also expected to decline.</li>
<li>BP's refining marker margin dropped 20% QoQ in Q4 to USD 13.1, marking its lowest level since early 2022. Additionally, upstream production is expected to fall sequentially.</li>
</ul>


BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively. For 2024, revenue is projected to drop 8.2% while EPS is estimated to fall 30.3%. 
BP anticipates weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity to impact profits by USD 100–300 million QoQ, with oil trading performance also expected to decline.
BP's refining marker margin dropped 20% QoQ in Q4 to USD 13.1, marking its lowest level since early 2022. Additionally, upstream production is expected to fall sequentially.


[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

<ul>
<li>Chevron's Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop 1.2% YoY and 38.8%, respectively. Similarly, its 2024 annual revenue and EPS are anticipated to fall by 2.5% and 22.5%.</li>
<li>Chevron expects restructuring and other charges to impact its Q4 2024 earnings by USD 1.1 billion to USD 1.5 billion.</li>
<li>Chevron set its 2025 organic capex at USD 14.5–15.5 billion and affiliate capex at USD 1.7–2.0 billion, marking a USD 2 billion decline from the previous year.</li>
</ul>


Chevron's Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop 1.2% YoY and 38.8%, respectively. Similarly, its 2024 annual revenue and EPS are anticipated to fall by 2.5% and 22.5%.
Chevron expects restructuring and other charges to impact its Q4 2024 earnings by USD 1.1 billion to USD 1.5 billion.
Chevron set its 2025 organic capex at USD 14.5–15.5 billion and affiliate capex at USD 1.7–2.0 billion, marking a USD 2 billion decline from the previous year.


[Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins to Weigh on Chevron’s Earnings

<ul>
<li>ExxonMobil’s Q4 revenue is expected to rise 2.5% YoY while its EPS is anticipated to fall 36.3%. Annual revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 1.9% YoY and 18.1%.</li>
<li>Exxon expects Q4 2024 upstream earnings to drop USD 500–900 million QoQ due to lower crude prices, with refining margins further reducing earnings by USD 300–700 million.</li>
<li>ExxonMobil plans to invest up to USD 30 billion in low-emission projects by 2030, with its Low Carbon Solutions business expected to contribute an additional USD 2 billion in earnings.</li>
</ul>


ExxonMobil’s Q4 revenue is expected to rise 2.5% YoY while its EPS is anticipated to fall 36.3%. Annual revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 1.9% YoY and 18.1%.
Exxon expects Q4 2024 upstream earnings to drop USD 500–900 million QoQ due to lower crude prices, with refining margins further reducing earnings by USD 300–700 million.
ExxonMobil plans to invest up to USD 30 billion in low-emission projects by 2030, with its Low Carbon Solutions business expected to contribute an additional USD 2 billion in earnings.


[Earnings Preview] Exxon Q4 Profitability Faces Pressure from Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins

United States

State Street Corporation services institutional investors and manages financial assets worldwide.  The Company's products and services include custody, accounting, administration, daily pricing, international exchange services, cash management, financial asset management, securities lending, and investment advisory services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

State Street (STT US)

US Banks - Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24

US banks are seeing stronger loan growth in new weekly data, and growth rate now is far higher than what they saw during 1Q24 weeks. Lowering cash,...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Senior Loan Officer Survey, Weekly B/S Data, Suggest Strong US Bank Profits

Data from the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey suggest a strong back drop to US bank earnings, as does granular HFD from weekly balance sheets,...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins to Weigh on Chevron’s Earnings

Chevron's Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop by 1.2% YoY and 38.8%, respectively. Restructuring charges are expected to impact earnings....

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Exxon Q4 Profitability Faces Pressure from Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins

ExxonMobil's Q4 revenue to rise YoY but EPS to fall. Annual revenue and EPS expected to decline. Exxon plans significant investments in low-carbon...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Banks - Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24

US banks are seeing stronger loan growth in new weekly data, and growth rate now is far higher than what they saw during 1Q24 weeks. Lowering cash,...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Senior Loan Officer Survey, Weekly B/S Data, Suggest Strong US Bank Profits

Data from the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey suggest a strong back drop to US bank earnings, as does granular HFD from weekly balance sheets,...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Preview] BP's Challenges to Persist Amid Weak Crude Prices and Declining Upstream Output

​BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins to Weigh on Chevron’s Earnings

​Chevron's Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop by 1.2% YoY and 38.8%, respectively. Restructuring charges are expected to impact earnings....

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Exxon Q4 Profitability Faces Pressure from Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins

​ExxonMobil's Q4 revenue to rise YoY but EPS to fall. Annual revenue and EPS expected to decline. Exxon plans significant investments in low-carbon...

Mint Finance

BP's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline significantly, with weaker refining margins and higher turnaround activity impacting profits. Upstream...

Chevron's Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop by 1.2% YoY and 38.8%, respectively. Restructuring charges are expected to impact earnings....

ExxonMobil's Q4 revenue to rise YoY but EPS to fall. Annual revenue and EPS expected to decline. Exxon plans significant investments in low-carbon...