Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Steel prices declined for 5 straight weeks; long products like rebar and wire rod saw the steepest fall amid weak spot market sentiment.</li>
<li>Companies expect higher Q1 FY26 realizations, but spot trends remain weak, highlighting a lag between optimism and transactional reality.</li>
<li>Auto and housing demand is softening; only two-wheelers, EVs, and commercial real estate offer near-term support to steel consumption.</li>
</ul>


Steel prices declined for 5 straight weeks; long products like rebar and wire rod saw the steepest fall amid weak spot market sentiment.
Companies expect higher Q1 FY26 realizations, but spot trends remain weak, highlighting a lag between optimism and transactional reality.
Auto and housing demand is softening; only two-wheelers, EVs, and commercial real estate offer near-term support to steel consumption.


India Steel Monitor – May 2025: Prices Fall, Demand Weak, Outlook Diverges

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

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Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Steelmakers are set for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling raw material costs boosting operating margins by INR 1,200-1,800 per tonne for steelmakers.</li>
<li>Lower input costs, particularly coking coal along with GOI's ADD will significantly improve profitability for steelmakers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN), </a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steel-authority-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14323:1" rel="noopener">Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)  expects surge in PAT upto 700%.</a>
</li>
</ul>


Steelmakers are set for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling raw material costs boosting operating margins by INR 1,200-1,800 per tonne for steelmakers.
Lower input costs, particularly coking coal along with GOI's ADD will significantly improve profitability for steelmakers.

JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) , Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN) , Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN),  Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)  expects surge in PAT upto 700%.



Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

<ul>
<li>India proposes a 12% safeguard duty on key flat steel imports for 200 days, targeting low-cost shipments from FTA partners like Japan and South Korea.</li>
<li>The move supports domestic steelmakers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> by restoring pricing power, creating room for further price hikes of INR 1,000–1,500/Ton.</li>
<li>Near-Term profitability looks up for flat-steel players, but risks from WTO pushback, MSME cost pressures, and the policy’s temporary nature warrant cautious optimism.</li>
</ul>


India proposes a 12% safeguard duty on key flat steel imports for 200 days, targeting low-cost shipments from FTA partners like Japan and South Korea.
The move supports domestic steelmakers like JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) and Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) by restoring pricing power, creating room for further price hikes of INR 1,000–1,500/Ton.
Near-Term profitability looks up for flat-steel players, but risks from WTO pushback, MSME cost pressures, and the policy’s temporary nature warrant cautious optimism.


India’s 12% Safeguard Duty: A Tailwind for Domestic Steelmakers or a Risk to Downstream Industries?

Dry Bulk Commodity Market Insights, DBX Commodities Limited

DBX Commodities

Dry Bulk Commodity Market Insights

DBX Commodities Limited

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Alex CLAUDE, an expert in commodity tech with 15 years experience in the commodity trading industry, teamed up with the Signal Group in 2020 and started DBX. 

Our product is the result of a unique combination of domain and technological expertise. We offer the most comprehensive, accurate and deepest research analytics of the dry bulk commodity market: coal, iron ore, alumina, bauxite, sugar, wheat, soybeans and soymeal.

<ul>
<li>Despite a mom decline, February's coal-fired power  generation reached a record monthly high.</li>
<li>Power  demand in India—and consequently coal demand—is  expected to rise sharply, with peak demand  projected to approach 200 TWh in May according to official sources, driven by warmer weather and  anticipated heat waves. </li>
<li>The monthly decline in power generation resulted in  a 3.4 TWh drop in coal-fired output, while generation  from other energy sources remained broadly stable.</li>
</ul>


Despite a mom decline, February's coal-fired power  generation reached a record monthly high.
Power  demand in India—and consequently coal demand—is  expected to rise sharply, with peak demand  projected to approach 200 TWh in May according to official sources, driven by warmer weather and  anticipated heat waves. 
The monthly decline in power generation resulted in  a 3.4 TWh drop in coal-fired output, while generation  from other energy sources remained broadly stable.


<ul>
<li>Supreme Court ruled that States can levy cesses on mining activities, distinguishing it from Union's authority over royalty.</li>
<li>Retrospective tax collection from 2005 could impose 1.5-2 lakh crore on the mining sector, heavily impacting co. like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)</a>.</li>
<li>The ruling may exacerbate financial pressures on the mining industry, especially in high-tax states like Odisha and Jharkhand.</li>
</ul>


Supreme Court ruled that States can levy cesses on mining activities, distinguishing it from Union's authority over royalty.
Retrospective tax collection from 2005 could impose 1.5-2 lakh crore on the mining sector, heavily impacting co. like Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) and Coal India Ltd (COAL IN).
The ruling may exacerbate financial pressures on the mining industry, especially in high-tax states like Odisha and Jharkhand.


60-Year Mining Tax Battle: Supreme Court’s Final Word

India

Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL) is a Maharatna public sector undertaking and one of India's largest steel-making companies. It produces a wide range of steel products, including flat and long steel products, wire rods, plates, and railway products, catering to sectors like infrastructure, railways, automotive, and defense. The company is headquartered in New Delhi, India, and was incorporated on January 24, 1973.

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Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)

India Steel Monitor – May 2025: Prices Fall, Demand Weak, Outlook Diverges

Steel prices have dropped for 5 weeks, with long products like rebar hit hardest; companies optimistic for Q1 FY26 but facing weak spot market...

Rahul Jain

Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

Steelmakers in India are poised for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling RM costs boosting OPM by INR 1,200-1,800/ tonne, leading...

Nimish Maheshwari

India’s 12% Safeguard Duty: A Tailwind for Domestic Steelmakers or a Risk to Downstream Industries?

India proposes safeguard duty on flat steel imports to support domestic steelmakers like JSW Steel and Tata Steel, allowing for price hikes but...

Nimish Maheshwari

India Coal Monitor (12 March 2025)

Despite a mom decline, February's coal-fired power generation reached a record monthly high. Power demand in India—and consequently coal...

DBX Commodities

60-Year Mining Tax Battle: Supreme Court’s Final Word

Supreme Court ruling allows States to levy cess on mining, potentially imposing hefty retrospective taxes on sector, impacting companies like Tata...

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India Steel Monitor – May 2025: Prices Fall, Demand Weak, Outlook Diverges

​Steel prices have dropped for 5 weeks, with long products like rebar hit hardest; companies optimistic for Q1 FY26 but facing weak spot market...

Rahul Jain

Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

​Steelmakers in India are poised for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling RM costs boosting OPM by INR 1,200-1,800/ tonne, leading...

Nimish Maheshwari

India’s 12% Safeguard Duty: A Tailwind for Domestic Steelmakers or a Risk to Downstream Industries?

​India proposes safeguard duty on flat steel imports to support domestic steelmakers like JSW Steel and Tata Steel, allowing for price hikes but...

Nimish Maheshwari

India Coal Monitor (12 March 2025)

Despite a mom decline, February's coal-fired power generation reached a record monthly high. Power demand in India—and consequently coal...

DBX Commodities

60-Year Mining Tax Battle: Supreme Court’s Final Word

​Supreme Court ruling allows States to levy cess on mining, potentially imposing hefty retrospective taxes on sector, impacting companies like Tata...

Nimish Maheshwari

Steel prices have dropped for 5 weeks, with long products like rebar hit hardest; companies optimistic for Q1 FY26 but facing weak spot market...

Steelmakers in India are poised for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling RM costs boosting OPM by INR 1,200-1,800/ tonne, leading...

India proposes safeguard duty on flat steel imports to support domestic steelmakers like JSW Steel and Tata Steel, allowing for price hikes but...

Supreme Court ruling allows States to levy cess on mining, potentially imposing hefty retrospective taxes on sector, impacting companies like Tata...