Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Infineon Technologies  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Very large miss. Sept-24 (4Q FY24) EPS -30% below Consensus.  Dec-24 (1Q FY25) revenue guidance -16% below Consensus, operating profit at least -20% below Consensus.</li>
<li>End-Demand is slow, large inventory destocking will continue into 1H FY25, followed by “no hockey stick recovery” in 2H FY25. “Current visibility is very low”. </li>
<li>For FY25 (starting in Dec-24 quarter), Consensus assumes +17% revenue growth YoY, management guided for a slight decline. Adding some margins compression, FY25 Consensus Net Income  is ~25-30% too high.   </li>
</ul>


Very large miss. Sept-24 (4Q FY24) EPS -30% below Consensus.  Dec-24 (1Q FY25) revenue guidance -16% below Consensus, operating profit at least -20% below Consensus.
End-Demand is slow, large inventory destocking will continue into 1H FY25, followed by “no hockey stick recovery” in 2H FY25. “Current visibility is very low”. 
For FY25 (starting in Dec-24 quarter), Consensus assumes +17% revenue growth YoY, management guided for a slight decline. Adding some margins compression, FY25 Consensus Net Income  is ~25-30% too high.   


Infineon: Large Miss and Reset. Auto & Industrial Semi Is a Good Space for Shorts.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Apple Increasing Chip Orders with TSMC -- Expecting iPhone 16 Sales to be Much Stronger Than iPhone 15 Thanks to AI</li>
<li>Google Said to be Shifting to TSMC from Samsung for Next Generation AI Mobile Phone Chips</li>
<li>This June 28th piece appears to be timely -- Memory Monitor: Micron's Shares May Be Falling But Results' Industry Implications Are Positive</li>
</ul>


Apple Increasing Chip Orders with TSMC -- Expecting iPhone 16 Sales to be Much Stronger Than iPhone 15 Thanks to AI
Google Said to be Shifting to TSMC from Samsung for Next Generation AI Mobile Phone Chips
This June 28th piece appears to be timely -- Memory Monitor: Micron's Shares May Be Falling But Results' Industry Implications Are Positive


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Hikes TSMC Orders on Strong IPhone 16 Hopes; Google Shifts AI Chip to TSMC

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-yuan-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6630:1" rel="noopener">King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)</a> outlook for 3Q24 could see a 5-10% quarter-on-quarter growth at present.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>  is currently the second-largest client of KYEC, and its business is rapidly expanding.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stmicroelectronics-nv-b981e30b-2a53-4f3d-b1cb-adaac140121c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33346:1" rel="noopener">STMicroelectronics NV (STM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/will-semiconductor-co-ltd-shan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28274:1" rel="noopener">Will Semiconductor Shan (603501 CH)</a> are currently the third and fourth largest clients, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT) outlook for 3Q24 could see a 5-10% quarter-on-quarter growth at present.  

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)  is currently the second-largest client of KYEC, and its business is rapidly expanding.

STMicroelectronics NV (STM US) and Will Semiconductor Shan (603501 CH) are currently the third and fourth largest clients, respectively.


KYEC (2449.TT): AI Highly Growth Potential may exceed Expectation.

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Microchip used to be the bellwether for semiconductor demand After many semis guided weaknesses in automotive, industrial, and digital consumer much earlier, Microchip's 19% miss in 1Q24 gives no surprise.</li>
<li>
<strong>Why the worst among all?</strong> We attributed Microchip to over 85% of its products on automotive, industrial, and digital consumer. Other semis have higher exposure on PC and comm.</li>
<li>
<strong>Priced in?</strong> We estimate over 20% y/y decline in 2024 sales vs. Bloomberg's -8% y/y. 2024E EPS of US$2.94 is likely below US$1. Price is only 10% below historical peak.</li>
</ul>


Microchip used to be the bellwether for semiconductor demand After many semis guided weaknesses in automotive, industrial, and digital consumer much earlier, Microchip's 19% miss in 1Q24 gives no surprise.

Why the worst among all? We attributed Microchip to over 85% of its products on automotive, industrial, and digital consumer. Other semis have higher exposure on PC and comm.

Priced in? We estimate over 20% y/y decline in 2024 sales vs. Bloomberg's -8% y/y. 2024E EPS of US$2.94 is likely below US$1. Price is only 10% below historical peak.


From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.</li>
<li>Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.</li>
<li>We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.</li>
</ul>


Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.
Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.
We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.


First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

Singapore

STMicroelectronics N.V. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets semiconductor integrated circuits and discrete devices. The Company's products are used in the telecommunications, consumer electronics, automotive, computer, and industrial sectors. Geographically, customers are located in North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific region.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

STMicroelectronics NV (STM US)

Infineon: Large Miss and Reset. Auto & Industrial Semi Is a Good Space for Shorts.

On Consensus before earnings release, the stock trades at 12.5x FY25. After Consensus adjustment, the stock should be trading at ~16-17x FY25 EPS.

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Hikes TSMC Orders on Strong IPhone 16 Hopes; Google Shifts AI Chip to TSMC

Apple and Google are increasing chip orders with TSMC for AI capabilities. Micron's shares inititially fell after reporting results previously,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

KYEC (2449.TT): AI Highly Growth Potential may exceed Expectation.

KYEC outlook for 3Q24 shows potential 5-10% growth, with NVDA Corp as second-largest client and expanding business. STMicroelectronics and Will...

Patrick Liao

From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All?

From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All? For next six months, we like both Intel and Qualcomm more...

Andrew Lu

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid; Weaknesses to be seen in industrial, general non-AI server semi,...

Andrew Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Infineon: Large Miss and Reset. Auto & Industrial Semi Is a Good Space for Shorts.

On Consensus before earnings release, the stock trades at 12.5x FY25. After Consensus adjustment, the stock should be trading at ~16-17x FY25 EPS.

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Hikes TSMC Orders on Strong IPhone 16 Hopes; Google Shifts AI Chip to TSMC

​Apple and Google are increasing chip orders with TSMC for AI capabilities. Micron's shares inititially fell after reporting results previously,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

KYEC (2449.TT): AI Highly Growth Potential may exceed Expectation.

KYEC outlook for 3Q24 shows potential 5-10% growth, with NVDA Corp as second-largest client and expanding business. STMicroelectronics and Will...

Patrick Liao

From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All?

From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All? For next six months, we like both Intel and Qualcomm more...

Andrew Lu

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid; Weaknesses to be seen in industrial, general non-AI server semi,...

Andrew Lu

Apple and Google are increasing chip orders with TSMC for AI capabilities. Micron's shares inititially fell after reporting results previously,...