Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Delta Electronics (Thailand) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> is trading at a huge valuation premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12688:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics (2308 TT)</a>, though that has narrowed over the last couple of months.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand</a> has already been on the Market Surveillance list for 2 months and inclusion for another 2 months will mean <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> deletion in June.</li>
<li>A placement by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12688:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics (2308 TT)</a> is not out of the question and that further increases the downside risk for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) is trading at a huge valuation premium to Delta Electronics (2308 TT), though that has narrowed over the last couple of months.

Delta Electronics Thailand has already been on the Market Surveillance list for 2 months and inclusion for another 2 months will mean SET 50 Index deletion in June.
A placement by Delta Electronics (2308 TT) is not out of the question and that further increases the downside risk for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB).


Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Off the Peak; SET50 Deletion Risk Increases

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> in December with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics (KCE TB)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a>. </li>
<li>There is one close change where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-TAIL (ITC TB)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> is unlikely to be deleted while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the SET 50 Index in December with KCE Electronics (KCE TB) replacing Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB). 
There is one close change where I-TAIL (ITC TB) could replace Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) in the index.

Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) is unlikely to be deleted while Berli Jucker (BJC TB) fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

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Krungthai XSpring

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In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support levels at 1,184 points (10-day EMA) and 1,180 points and the resistance levels at 1,200 and 1,206 points (25-day EMA).</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a downward zig-zag trend, seeking the bottom within a range of 1,100-1,506 points.</li><li>In the short term, although the trend is still bearish, positive signals have started to emerge, which may support a rally toward 1,206 points (25-day EMA), especially after the index broke above and stabilized around the 10-day EMA since Wednesday, March 19. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support levels at 1,184 points (10-day EMA) and 1,180 points and the resistance levels at 1,200 and 1,206 points (25-day EMA).In the medium term, the index remains in a downward zig-zag trend, seeking the bottom within a range of 1,100-1,506 points.In the short term, although the trend is still bearish, positive signals have started to emerge, which may support a rally toward 1,206 points (25-day EMA), especially after the index broke above and stabilized around the 10-day EMA since Wednesday, March 19. 

KTX Zoom: US Home Figures - MARCH 25, 2025

<ul><li>KTX expects the index to move in a sideways up pattern, with resistance at 1,472/1,494 points and support at 1,423/1,405 points.</li><li>Highlights impacting the market include: i) the 3Q24E earnings results (US and Thai banks); ii) US election on November 5 (Harris or Trump?); iii) results of the Bank of Thailand’s MPC meeting (first signal of a rate cut?), and iv) the Pheu Thai government gradually rolling out additional economic stimulus measures.</li><li>Risks include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, global financial market volatility leading up to the US election, and profit taking by foreign investors after the support from the Vayupak Fund fades</li></ul>

KTX expects the index to move in a sideways up pattern, with resistance at 1,472/1,494 points and support at 1,423/1,405 points.Highlights impacting the market include: i) the 3Q24E earnings results (US and Thai banks); ii) US election on November 5 (Harris or Trump?); iii) results of the Bank of Thailand’s MPC meeting (first signal of a rate cut?), and iv) the Pheu Thai government gradually rolling out additional economic stimulus measures.Risks include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, global financial market volatility leading up to the US election, and profit taking by foreign investors after the support from the Vayupak Fund fades

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>US GDP grew by 3.0% QoQ in 2Q24, raising the annual growth rate to 3.1% YoY (up from 2.9% YoY in 1Q24).</li><li>Given these factors, we recommend selling if the index moves within the 1,410-1,457 point range and waiting to buy back when the index corrects to the 1,360-1,410 point range.</li><li>Japan's economy is showing signs of a recovery, with annualized GDP growth for 2Q24 rebounding to 2.9% YoY, up from -2.4% YoY in 1Q24.</li></ul>

US GDP grew by 3.0% QoQ in 2Q24, raising the annual growth rate to 3.1% YoY (up from 2.9% YoY in 1Q24).Given these factors, we recommend selling if the index moves within the 1,410-1,457 point range and waiting to buy back when the index corrects to the 1,360-1,410 point range.Japan's economy is showing signs of a recovery, with annualized GDP growth for 2Q24 rebounding to 2.9% YoY, up from -2.4% YoY in 1Q24.

Keep a Close Watch on Three Major Central Bank Meetings

Thailand

The Thailand SET 50 Index is a capitalization-weighted index based on the top 50 stocks listed on the Bangkok SET index having high market capitalizatin and high liquidity. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of August 16 1995

Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)

Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)

Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Off the Peak; SET50 Deletion Risk Increases

The TH line trades at a valuation premium to the TW line. The price ratio is off the highs. Further downside possible if the parent sells down the...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

KCE could replace TIDLOR in the SET50 in Dec. ITC is a close add and could replace SAWAD. The impact on the stocks is big given the index is...

Brian Freitas

KTX Zoom: US Home Figures - MARCH 25, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support levels at 1,184 points (10-day EMA) and 1,180 points and the resistance...

Krungthai XSpring

Monthly Report: October 2024

KTX expects the index to move in a sideways up pattern, with resistance at 1,472/1,494 points and support at 1,423/1,405 points.

Krungthai XSpring

Keep a Close Watch on Three Major Central Bank Meetings

US GDP grew by 3.0% QoQ in 2Q24, raising the annual growth rate to 3.1% YoY (up from 2.9% YoY in 1Q24). Given these factors, we recommend selling...

Krungthai XSpring