New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>1H23 listed property results highlighted solid operational outcomes, but we are starting to see higher interest rates impact forward earnings expectations and capital management strategies</li><li>Development is being delayed, non-core assets sold and distribution growth moderated</li><li>While results were generally in line with our expectations, we lowered our earnings and dividend forecasts for most of the sector</li></ul>

1H23 listed property results highlighted solid operational outcomes, but we are starting to see higher interest rates impact forward earnings expectations and capital management strategiesDevelopment is being delayed, non-core assets sold and distribution growth moderatedWhile results were generally in line with our expectations, we lowered our earnings and dividend forecasts for most of the sector

Real Estate Reflections: Adjusting to a Higher Rates Environment

<ul><li>High interest rates and low transactions volumes has created uncertainty around commercial property valuations</li><li>Our analysis suggests that most property balance sheets can withstand a significant decrease in asset values with Argosy (ARG), Goodman Trust (GMT), and Property for Industry (PFI) the most resilient given low current gearing and/or limited capital commitments.</li><li>Kiwi Property (KPG), Stride (SPG), and Vital Healthcare (VHP) have the least resilient balance sheets owing to either higher initial gearing and/or significant capital commitments</li></ul>

High interest rates and low transactions volumes has created uncertainty around commercial property valuationsOur analysis suggests that most property balance sheets can withstand a significant decrease in asset values with Argosy (ARG), Goodman Trust (GMT), and Property for Industry (PFI) the most resilient given low current gearing and/or limited capital commitments.Kiwi Property (KPG), Stride (SPG), and Vital Healthcare (VHP) have the least resilient balance sheets owing to either higher initial gearing and/or significant capital commitments

<ul><li>Cap rates expanding, NAVs rebased: Interest rates continue to place upward pressure on cap rates and downward pressure on asset values and NTA</li><li>Looking forward to the reporting season: Six LPVs will be reporting interim results in September</li><li>LPVs had a mixed month in the market: The NZ LPV sector was down -2% in October, and underperformed the broader market by 4%</li></ul>

Cap rates expanding, NAVs rebased: Interest rates continue to place upward pressure on cap rates and downward pressure on asset values and NTALooking forward to the reporting season: Six LPVs will be reporting interim results in SeptemberLPVs had a mixed month in the market: The NZ LPV sector was down -2% in October, and underperformed the broader market by 4%

Real Estate Reflections Time for a Check Up

<ul><li>Bond yields have continued to dictate listed property share performance</li><li>Long bond yields rose +30bp in September, returning to mid-June highs, resulting in a broad based sell-off of the property names</li><li>As a result of some large share price movements the property sector dividend yield spreads to 10 year interest rates expanded slightly</li></ul>

Bond yields have continued to dictate listed property share performanceLong bond yields rose +30bp in September, returning to mid-June highs, resulting in a broad based sell-off of the property namesAs a result of some large share price movements the property sector dividend yield spreads to 10 year interest rates expanded slightly

Real Estate Reflections: Déjà Vu All Over Again

<ul><li>Listed property vehicles (LPVs) who reported in August generally delivered a solid set of results, although interest rates continue to be a key headwind for the sector</li><li>Operational outcomes were more positive with solid like-for-like income growth driven by strong market rent reviews and leasing outcomes</li><li>Long-bond yields moved higher over August and only modest moves in share prices resulted in the sector yield spread contracting to a 14-year low</li></ul>

Listed property vehicles (LPVs) who reported in August generally delivered a solid set of results, although interest rates continue to be a key headwind for the sectorOperational outcomes were more positive with solid like-for-like income growth driven by strong market rent reviews and leasing outcomesLong-bond yields moved higher over August and only modest moves in share prices resulted in the sector yield spread contracting to a 14-year low

Real Estate Reflections: Debt Costs Rising

New Zealand

Stride Stapled Group operates as a real estate investment company. The Company invests in a portfolio of places with enduring demand, as well as acquires retail properties. Stride Stapled conducts business in New Zealand.

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Stride Property (SPG NZ)

Real Estate Reflections: Adjusting to a Higher Rates Environment

1H23 listed property results highlighted solid operational outcomes, but we are starting to see higher interest rates impact forward earnings...

Forsyth Barr

Listed Property Insights: In the Balance

High interest rates and low transactions volumes has created uncertainty around commercial property valuations, which has manifested in the NZ...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections Time for a Check Up

It was another roller coaster month for the listed property sector - the sector sold off as long bond yields peaked at 4.7% mid-month before a ...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections: Déjà Vu All Over Again

Bond yields have continued to dictate listed property share performance; Long bond yields rose +30bp in September, returning to mid-June highs,...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections: Debt Costs Rising

Listed property vehicles (LPVs) who reported in August generally delivered a solid set of results, although interest rates continue to be a key...

Forsyth Barr

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