Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

Private Capital Markets

<ul><li>With its October rebrand and launch of the Kit App Store, Kit shifted from vertically integrated SaaS to a platform model akin to Shopify’s ecosystem strategy, enabling 15+ third-party apps to go live by year-end and creating new levers for expansion revenue and developer-led distribution—mirroring the bundling trend across creator SaaS as players like Kajabi and Stan seek to combat low ACV and high churn.</li><li>With the launch of Kit Studios and its first physical location offering free, high-end video and podcast production space to creators, Kit is extending its product surface offline to capture more multi-channel “creator CEOs”—echoing Kajabi’s bundling strategy and positioning itself as a B2B SaaS alternative to venture-backed platforms like Substack, which continue to struggle with 50-60% annual churn and negative revenue on subsidized creator advances.</li><li>We followed up at $41M ARR in April 2024, growing 17% YoY, as it was establishing itself beyond pure email SaaS with diversification into subscription software, creator commerce, and advertising.</li></ul>

With its October rebrand and launch of the Kit App Store, Kit shifted from vertically integrated SaaS to a platform model akin to Shopify’s ecosystem strategy, enabling 15+ third-party apps to go live by year-end and creating new levers for expansion revenue and developer-led distribution—mirroring the bundling trend across creator SaaS as players like Kajabi and Stan seek to combat low ACV and high churn.With the launch of Kit Studios and its first physical location offering free, high-end video and podcast production space to creators, Kit is extending its product surface offline to capture more multi-channel “creator CEOs”—echoing Kajabi’s bundling strategy and positioning itself as a B2B SaaS alternative to venture-backed platforms like Substack, which continue to struggle with 50-60% annual churn and negative revenue on subsidized creator advances.We followed up at $41M ARR in April 2024, growing 17% YoY, as it was establishing itself beyond pure email SaaS with diversification into subscription software, creator commerce, and advertising.

<ul><li>Sacra estimates that Stan ended 2024 at $28.3M in ARR, up 92% year-over-year.</li><li>We first covered Stan at $14.7M ARR in February 2024, growing 765% YoY.</li><li>We followed up at $27M ARR in May 2024, growing ~20% month-over-month.</li></ul>

Sacra estimates that Stan ended 2024 at $28.3M in ARR, up 92% year-over-year.We first covered Stan at $14.7M ARR in February 2024, growing 765% YoY.We followed up at $27M ARR in May 2024, growing ~20% month-over-month.

<ul><li>Sacra estimates that Gumroad hit $21M in revenue in 2023, up 96% from $11M in 2022.</li><li>Gumroad&#39;s pricing change from a 3.5-8.5% variable take rate to a flat 10% take rate on GMV in early 2023 near doubled monthly revenue from $1M to $1.8M and flipped them from burning cash (-$1M net in 2022) to generating $9M in net profit for 2023.</li><li>Once creators are making more than $4K per year, the transaction fees a creator is paying to Gumroad are equivalent/beyond what they’d pay for a more fully-featured SaaS platform for creators like Stan.</li></ul>

Sacra estimates that Gumroad hit $21M in revenue in 2023, up 96% from $11M in 2022.Gumroad&#39;s pricing change from a 3.5-8.5% variable take rate to a flat 10% take rate on GMV in early 2023 near doubled monthly revenue from $1M to $1.8M and flipped them from burning cash (-$1M net in 2022) to generating $9M in net profit for 2023.Once creators are making more than $4K per year, the transaction fees a creator is paying to Gumroad are equivalent/beyond what they’d pay for a more fully-featured SaaS platform for creators like Stan.

<ul><li>Gumroad flipped from burning cash to making $9M in profit when it increased prices in 2023, but behind its $21M of revenue (up 96% YoY) is a 2.5 year decline in GMV.</li><li>The near-term revenue step function increase masked a longer-term decline in GMV, which fell from its COVID peak of $185M in 2021 to $171M in 2023—a trend finally now showing up in monthly revenue, down ~7% YoY as of July 2024.</li><li>The upside case lies in the growing Gumroad family of businesses—Flexile for contractor payroll ($36K ARR), Helper for customer support, and Iffy for API-based content moderation—which it finances with its substantial positive cash flow.</li></ul>

Gumroad flipped from burning cash to making $9M in profit when it increased prices in 2023, but behind its $21M of revenue (up 96% YoY) is a 2.5 year decline in GMV.The near-term revenue step function increase masked a longer-term decline in GMV, which fell from its COVID peak of $185M in 2021 to $171M in 2023—a trend finally now showing up in monthly revenue, down ~7% YoY as of July 2024.The upside case lies in the growing Gumroad family of businesses—Flexile for contractor payroll ($36K ARR), Helper for customer support, and Iffy for API-based content moderation—which it finances with its substantial positive cash flow.

<ul><li>Circle’s community platform rode the tailwind of offline groups going online during COVID, reaching a Sacra-estimated $21M in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in May 2024, up 75% year-over-year.</li><li>Sacra estimates that Circle hit $21M in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in May 2024, up 75% from ~$12M in May 2023, valued at $250M at a 12x forward revenue multiple.</li><li>Across the creator economy, platforms are going all-in-one, converting integrations into native SKUs to grow average revenue per user (ARPU) as Circle has done with courses (Thinkific), paid events (Eventbrite), and payments (Gumroad).</li></ul>

Circle’s community platform rode the tailwind of offline groups going online during COVID, reaching a Sacra-estimated $21M in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in May 2024, up 75% year-over-year.Sacra estimates that Circle hit $21M in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in May 2024, up 75% from ~$12M in May 2023, valued at $250M at a 12x forward revenue multiple.Across the creator economy, platforms are going all-in-one, converting integrations into native SKUs to grow average revenue per user (ARPU) as Circle has done with courses (Thinkific), paid events (Eventbrite), and payments (Gumroad).

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Newsletter tool for writers to publish, monetize, and grow subscriber audiences

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Substack (SUBSTACK US)

ConvertKit At $43M ARR

TL;DR: ConvertKit (now rebranded as Kit) has expanded beyond email infrastructure with the launch of the Kit App Store and physical Kit Studios...

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Stan Vs Whop

TL;DR: The fastest-growing creator economy platforms in 2025, like Stan and Whop, are those enabling creators to sell shadow market digital SKUs...

Sacra

Primer: Gumroad - 07 Dec 2024

Checkout tool for creators to sell digital products, memberships, and courses online

Sacra

Gumroad At $21M

TL;DR: Gumroad flipped from burning cash to making $9M in profit when it increased prices in 2023, but behind its $21M of revenue (up 96% YoY) is a...

Sacra

Circle At $21M ARR

TL;DR: Circle’s community platform rode the tailwind of offline groups going online during COVID, reaching a Sacra-estimated $21M in annual...

Sacra

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