Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>TXN lowering capex slightly and commenting that demand remains below 2019 levels a slight negative for SPE and analog/power names such as Rohm and Fuji Elec.</li>
<li>Keysight technologies strong earnings and guidance beat after hours is a strong positive read for Anritsu who offers similar telco testing products.</li>
<li>Poor sales figures from Hainan Island point to a continued tough operating environment in China for cosmetics names such as Shiseido.</li>
</ul>


TXN lowering capex slightly and commenting that demand remains below 2019 levels a slight negative for SPE and analog/power names such as Rohm and Fuji Elec.
Keysight technologies strong earnings and guidance beat after hours is a strong positive read for Anritsu who offers similar telco testing products.
Poor sales figures from Hainan Island point to a continued tough operating environment in China for cosmetics names such as Shiseido.


Japan Morning Connection: Rohm, Anritsu, Shiseido

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-forestry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9769:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP)</a> is a potential inclusion to a global index at the August rebalance. If added, passive trackers will need to buy over 6x ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-forestry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9769:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP)</a> has traded lower on risk-off sentiment and further downside provides an entry point that could pay off if the stock is added to the index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-forestry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9769:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP)</a> has outperformed its peers but trades at similar valuations to some stocks. A long/short trade could protect the downside.</li>
</ul>



Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP) is a potential inclusion to a global index at the August rebalance. If added, passive trackers will need to buy over 6x ADV.

Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP) has traded lower on risk-off sentiment and further downside provides an entry point that could pay off if the stock is added to the index.

Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP) has outperformed its peers but trades at similar valuations to some stocks. A long/short trade could protect the downside.


Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP): Selloff Provides Entry for Potential Index Inclusion

<ul>
<li>Watch for a 'megaquake' reversal after a big rotation for names deemed to be winners/losers on Friday on heightened expectations for a major Nankai Trough earthquake over the w/e</li>
<li>Retail related should rebound sharply after a solid 1Q showing from 3099 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi</a>, with several related names yet to rebound on concerns the stronger yen will curb tourist spending.</li>
<li>1911 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-forestry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9769:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Forestry</a> business briefing Friday confirms the strength of its US housing business, with it likely to easily exceed its latest MTP.</li>
</ul>


Watch for a 'megaquake' reversal after a big rotation for names deemed to be winners/losers on Friday on heightened expectations for a major Nankai Trough earthquake over the w/e
Retail related should rebound sharply after a solid 1Q showing from 3099 Isetan Mitsukoshi, with several related names yet to rebound on concerns the stronger yen will curb tourist spending.
1911 Sumitomo Forestry business briefing Friday confirms the strength of its US housing business, with it likely to easily exceed its latest MTP.


Japan Morning Connection: 3099 JP, 1911 JP, 5803 JP

<ul>
<li>ARM +11% after a broker upgrade yesterday will see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> rebound sharply off heavily sold levels yesterday, despite its surprise Y500bn buyback.</li>
<li>Tech wide relief rally in the US sets the tone for a very strong day in Japan, helped by strong earnings by the likes of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">TEL (8035)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai (6525).</a>
</li>
<li>Jobs data saw leisure and powersports names in the US rally which should help the likes of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7411:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">KHI (7012 JP)</a> rebound sharply also.</li>
</ul>


ARM +11% after a broker upgrade yesterday will see Softbank Group (9984 JP) rebound sharply off heavily sold levels yesterday, despite its surprise Y500bn buyback.
Tech wide relief rally in the US sets the tone for a very strong day in Japan, helped by strong earnings by the likes of TEL (8035) and Kokusai (6525).

Jobs data saw leisure and powersports names in the US rally which should help the likes of Yamaha Motor (7272 JP) and KHI (7012 JP) rebound sharply also.


Japan Morning Connection: 9984 JP, 8035 JP, 6525 JP

<ul>
<li>Meta and MSFT commented they are seeing benefits from their AI investments, pointing to increased capex positive for JP SPE names.</li>
<li>Advantest upgrading its tester market outlook for both SoC and memory over a solid 1Q earnings print will be positive for 6871 Micronics ahead of numbers.</li>
<li>Japan off the China export ban for now, however the US is unlikely to rollover and allow China unfettered access to cutting edge tech.</li>
</ul>


Meta and MSFT commented they are seeing benefits from their AI investments, pointing to increased capex positive for JP SPE names.
Advantest upgrading its tester market outlook for both SoC and memory over a solid 1Q earnings print will be positive for 6871 Micronics ahead of numbers.
Japan off the China export ban for now, however the US is unlikely to rollover and allow China unfettered access to cutting edge tech.


Japan Morning Connection - 6857 JP, 6871 JP, 6525 JP

Japan

Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. sells lumber and wood-related construction materials.  The Company constructs and markets a variety of homes, including custom-built wooden houses, and also manufactures and distributes high-value added wood-based products.  Sumitomo Forestry also maintains a significant amount of Japan's forests.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Rohm, Anritsu, Shiseido

TXN's lower capex and weak demand as slight negative for SPE and analog/power companies; Keysight's strong earnings and guidance is positive for...

Andrew Jackson