Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: Big SPX Reversal as Recession back on the table; USD weakens; UST bid as US Retail Sales misses;  Big job cuts ats MSFT  </li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futs -1.2% vs Cash; BOJ holds steady forcing speculative JGB unwinds - JGB yields go as low as 0.34%; Toyota production issues; Disco Nikkei preview - Weak </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET: CARBON CREDITS - WORTHLESS ? This is according to the Guardian Newspaper. Seems that this is something the authorities need to address. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: Big SPX Reversal as Recession back on the table; USD weakens; UST bid as US Retail Sales misses;  Big job cuts ats MSFT  
JAPAN: NKY Futs -1.2% vs Cash; BOJ holds steady forcing speculative JGB unwinds - JGB yields go as low as 0.34%; Toyota production issues; Disco Nikkei preview - Weak 
DAILY NUGGET: CARBON CREDITS - WORTHLESS ? This is according to the Guardian Newspaper. Seems that this is something the authorities need to address. 


Good Morning Japan |Recession Reasserts; Retail Sales Miss; Fed Bullard Calls for 5%; MSFT Culls

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: SPX snapp rally;  Eearnings refocus as GS misses; Tech bid continues;  TELSA +7% as analysts see merits of price cuts; Japan's BOJ in focus. </li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY flat at 129.16. BOJ Day -this is all that matters. </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET: Sustainable Aviation Fuel thematic is ramping up. ANA and JAL recent annoucements highlight the commercial potential for the supply chain. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: SPX snapp rally;  Eearnings refocus as GS misses; Tech bid continues;  TELSA +7% as analysts see merits of price cuts; Japan's BOJ in focus. 
JAPAN: NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY flat at 129.16. BOJ Day -this is all that matters. 
DAILY NUGGET: Sustainable Aviation Fuel thematic is ramping up. ANA and JAL recent annoucements highlight the commercial potential for the supply chain. 


Good Morning Japan |Rally Sputters as Earnings in Focus; GS Misses; BOJ - DAY OF RECKONING

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese Banks have had a good run recently. From the day before the BOJ changed the 10yr yield target in December in its YCC programme to today, +30% vs TOPIX.</li>
<li>The question is how that is spread out. There are lots of banks. Some are cheaper than others. Some are better than others. Can we draw conclusions to trade better?</li>
<li>If you are looking at Japanese Banks to play a change in BOJ policy when Governor Kuroda's term ends shortly, there are definitely conclusions one can draw. I offer comments.</li>
</ul>


Japanese Banks have had a good run recently. From the day before the BOJ changed the 10yr yield target in December in its YCC programme to today, +30% vs TOPIX.
The question is how that is spread out. There are lots of banks. Some are cheaper than others. Some are better than others. Can we draw conclusions to trade better?
If you are looking at Japanese Banks to play a change in BOJ policy when Governor Kuroda's term ends shortly, there are definitely conclusions one can draw. I offer comments.


Thinking About Japanese Banks - Go Big, Go Small, Go Insurance

<ul>
<li>A Nikkei article today suggests FUNDING SECURED for JIP's deal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>. Noises 2wks ago suggested this timing for a deal, but there are no terms yet.</li>
<li>The syndicate, led by SMBC and Mizuho, "has agreed to ¥1.2trln in loans." The two leads take two-thirds but details suggest not all is as smooth as the headline suggests.</li>
<li>The remaining questions are whether the major holders will take the bait at that price, and/or whether JIC would come in over the top. I expect yes to the first.</li>
</ul>


A Nikkei article today suggests FUNDING SECURED for JIP's deal for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP). Noises 2wks ago suggested this timing for a deal, but there are no terms yet.
The syndicate, led by SMBC and Mizuho, "has agreed to ¥1.2trln in loans." The two leads take two-thirds but details suggest not all is as smooth as the headline suggests.
The remaining questions are whether the major holders will take the bait at that price, and/or whether JIC would come in over the top. I expect yes to the first.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-transport-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2395:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP)</a> has had a "long" wait to get its approvals, but EC and China are in, any remaining should be in shortly. </li>
<li>Yesterday, as a footnote on the SG Holdings offering document, there was a comment about SG Holdings selling shares. This was likely more good corporate governance hygiene than warning.</li>
<li>Shares are down this morning. I'd expect final approvals and launch quite soon. I would therefore look to buy the dip on flow - block or not.</li>
</ul>



Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) has had a "long" wait to get its approvals, but EC and China are in, any remaining should be in shortly. 
Yesterday, as a footnote on the SG Holdings offering document, there was a comment about SG Holdings selling shares. This was likely more good corporate governance hygiene than warning.
Shares are down this morning. I'd expect final approvals and launch quite soon. I would therefore look to buy the dip on flow - block or not.


Hitachi Transport (9086 JP) - Tender Launch Likely Soon But Watch for Flow

Japan

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. The Company provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Good Morning Japan |Recession Reasserts; Retail Sales Miss; Fed Bullard Calls for 5%; MSFT Culls

JAPAN: NKY Futs -1.2% vs Cash; SPX reversal on weak retail print;BOJ holds steady forcing speculative JGB unwinds - JGB yields go as low as 0.34%;...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |Rally Sputters as Earnings in Focus; GS Misses; BOJ - DAY OF RECKONING

NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY flat at 129.16. BOJ Day -this is all that matters Sustainable Aviation Fuel thematic is ramping up. Big...

Mark Chadwick

Thinking About Japanese Banks - Go Big, Go Small, Go Insurance

The BOJ is set for a change in policy shortly. It could come before Kuroda-san leaves, or after, and we don't yet know whether Kishida-san will go...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502) - Funding Secured!

An article after the close suggests major banks are now agreed to supply JPY 1.2trln of loans, plus possibly 200bn of working capital commitment....

Travis Lundy

Hitachi Transport (9086 JP) - Tender Launch Likely Soon But Watch for Flow

Hitachi Transport should be in final stages. The two tough approvals were done a month ago. The Russia sub should not be a factor (it could be sold...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Good Morning Japan |Recession Reasserts; Retail Sales Miss; Fed Bullard Calls for 5%; MSFT Culls

JAPAN: NKY Futs -1.2% vs Cash; SPX reversal on weak retail print;BOJ holds steady forcing speculative JGB unwinds - JGB yields go as low as 0.34%;...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |Rally Sputters as Earnings in Focus; GS Misses; BOJ - DAY OF RECKONING

NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY flat at 129.16. **BOJ Day -this is all that matters** Sustainable Aviation Fuel thematic is ramping up. Big...

Mark Chadwick

Thinking About Japanese Banks - Go Big, Go Small, Go Insurance

The BOJ is set for a change in policy shortly. It could come before Kuroda-san leaves, or after, and we don't yet know whether Kishida-san will go...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502) - Funding Secured!

An article after the close suggests major banks are now agreed to supply JPY 1.2trln of loans, plus possibly 200bn of working capital commitment....

Travis Lundy

Hitachi Transport (9086 JP) - Tender Launch Likely Soon But Watch for Flow

Hitachi Transport should be in final stages. The two tough approvals were done a month ago. The Russia sub should not be a factor (it could be sold...

Travis Lundy

NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY flat at 129.16. BOJ Day -this is all that matters Sustainable Aviation Fuel thematic is ramping up. Big...