Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chiba Bank shows good gains in net interest income through 1H25 YoY </li>
<li>There should be more of this with rising BOJ rates during 2H25.</li>
<li>Flow through to net profit can be strong, given credit metrics.</li>
</ul>


Chiba Bank shows good gains in net interest income through 1H25 YoY 
There should be more of this with rising BOJ rates during 2H25.
Flow through to net profit can be strong, given credit metrics.


Chiba Bank - Net Interest Income Up, Expect More with BOJ Hike, Credit Metrics Allow Flow Through

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Murata Manufacturing / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders aim to raise around US$900m via selling around 3% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/murata-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1" rel="noopener">Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP)</a>, in another cross-shareholding selldown.</li>
<li>The company’s shares haven’t done much over the past few years and recent share price performance as well hasn’t been the best</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders aim to raise around US$900m via selling around 3% of Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP), in another cross-shareholding selldown.
The company’s shares haven’t done much over the past few years and recent share price performance as well hasn’t been the best
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Murata Manufacturing Placement - Recent Momentum Isn’t Particularly Strong

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A group of 7 shareholders are looking to sell 61.3m shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/murata-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1" rel="noopener">Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP)</a> to raise JPY 143.8bn (US$916m). That is 3.3% of shares outstanding.</li>
<li>The shares are being offered at a price range of JPY 2296-2345.5/share, a discount of 5-7% to the last close of the stock.</li>
<li>With the offering less than 5% of shares outstanding and less than US$1bn in size, there is no immediate passive buying and there could be further weakness in the stock.</li>
</ul>


A group of 7 shareholders are looking to sell 61.3m shares in Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) to raise JPY 143.8bn (US$916m). That is 3.3% of shares outstanding.
The shares are being offered at a price range of JPY 2296-2345.5/share, a discount of 5-7% to the last close of the stock.
With the offering less than 5% of shares outstanding and less than US$1bn in size, there is no immediate passive buying and there could be further weakness in the stock.


Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) - No Immediate Passive Buying Could Lead to More Weakness

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

Shimao Property Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>NTT obtains $1B for a Singapore data center REIT, supporting expansion and growth in the region.</li><li>Japan's Open House acquires Bolder Presence in a $390M stake buy, increasing investment in the company.</li><li>Shimao lowers Sheraton HK Airport hotel price by 30% to attract more customers, adjusting to market demand.</li></ul>

NTT obtains $1B for a Singapore data center REIT, supporting expansion and growth in the region.Japan's Open House acquires Bolder Presence in a $390M stake buy, increasing investment in the company.Shimao lowers Sheraton HK Airport hotel price by 30% to attract more customers, adjusting to market demand.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Jan-2025): NTT secures banks for $1B SG data centre REIT.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact. Actionable Themes today include Financials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary (European Luxury Retailers)</li>
<li>We view this pullback as a buying opportunity and we are watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US; this is an important resistance-turned-support level dating back to July 2024.</li>
<li>Europe and Japan are on the cusp of major breakouts above critical resistance levels of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact. Actionable Themes today include Financials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary (European Luxury Retailers)
We view this pullback as a buying opportunity and we are watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US; this is an important resistance-turned-support level dating back to July 2024.
Europe and Japan are on the cusp of major breakouts above critical resistance levels of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX


Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts

Japan

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. The Company provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Chiba Bank - Net Interest Income Up, Expect More with BOJ Hike, Credit Metrics Allow Flow Through

Chiba Bank already showing good net interest income gains, and more is likely with rate hike from BOJ, credit metrics appear strong, so better core...

Daniel Tabbush

Murata Manufacturing Placement - Recent Momentum Isn’t Particularly Strong

A group of shareholders aim to raise around US$900m via selling around 3% of Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP), in another cross-shareholding selldown.

Sumeet Singh

Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) - No Immediate Passive Buying Could Lead to More Weakness

A group of 7 holders are selling US$916m of stock at a 5-7% discount to last. That is 3.3% of shares out and 12.4x ADV. There is no passive buying...

Brian Freitas

Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Jan-2025): NTT secures banks for $1B SG data centre REIT.

NTT secures $1B for Singapore data center REIT, Open House acquires Builder Pressance, Shimao reduces Sheraton HK Airport hotel price by 30%, and...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts

Opportunity Within Europe and Japan $HEDJ $DXJ; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts. $ACWI above $116. Buys in Financials,...

Vermilion Research

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