Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We must recognize the wide variance in credit growth rates across Asian countries</li>
<li>There are critical implications for differences in net interest income growth and profit</li>
<li>Credit metrics also tend to move in tandem with loan growth rates, as does GDP growth</li>
</ul>


We must recognize the wide variance in credit growth rates across Asian countries
There are critical implications for differences in net interest income growth and profit
Credit metrics also tend to move in tandem with loan growth rates, as does GDP growth


Asian Banks - Wide Variance in Credit Growth, and in Delta of Growth Rates in Recent Months

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.</li>
<li>We apply our quantitative models to each instrument's trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.</li>
<li>
<strong>Most overbought</strong>: META, Bank of China, USO/Oil, China Construction Bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial. <strong>Most oversold</strong>: NeatEase Cloud Music, CATL, Samsung Electronics, Gold, Shin Etsu Chemical</li>
</ul>


WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.
We apply our quantitative models to each instrument's trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.

Most overbought: META, Bank of China, USO/Oil, China Construction Bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial. Most oversold: NeatEase Cloud Music, CATL, Samsung Electronics, Gold, Shin Etsu Chemical


WEEKLY Tactical Recap: Samsung Electronics, CATL, Tokyo Electron, Advantest Corp, Bank of China, BYD

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Yamaha Motor, Orix, Advantest, Kioxia, Rakuten, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Panasonic, JFE.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Yamaha Motor, Orix, Advantest, Kioxia, Rakuten, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Panasonic, JFE.


MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Aug): Yamaha Motor, Orix, Advantest, Kioxia, Rakuten, Panasonic

<ul>
<li>We derive which of Japan's banks may be most or least exposed to trading gains from divestment of cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>Mizuho looks best of the megabanks and SMFG looks least good of the megabanks.</li>
<li>Japan Post Bank and SBI Shinsei may appear to have a high potential for selling domestic stocks, but we believe other drivers make them appear this way.</li>
</ul>


We derive which of Japan's banks may be most or least exposed to trading gains from divestment of cross-shareholdings.
Mizuho looks best of the megabanks and SMFG looks least good of the megabanks.
Japan Post Bank and SBI Shinsei may appear to have a high potential for selling domestic stocks, but we believe other drivers make them appear this way.


Japan Banks - Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Norinchukin Bank plans to sell JPY10 trillion of foreign government bonds, crystallising a chunk of the JPY2.19 trillion of unrealized bond losses, as it also looks to raise JPY1.2 trillion</li>
<li>We explore the bigger cap banks’ foreign bond holding and unrealized gains or losses, including those of Japan Post Bank; Norinchukin is clearly the negative outlier of this peer group</li>
<li>We do not see Norinchukin as a canary in the coalmine for the big-caps’ risks on foreign bond exposure; we stick with buys on Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Concordia</li>
</ul>


Norinchukin Bank plans to sell JPY10 trillion of foreign government bonds, crystallising a chunk of the JPY2.19 trillion of unrealized bond losses, as it also looks to raise JPY1.2 trillion
We explore the bigger cap banks’ foreign bond holding and unrealized gains or losses, including those of Japan Post Bank; Norinchukin is clearly the negative outlier of this peer group
We do not see Norinchukin as a canary in the coalmine for the big-caps’ risks on foreign bond exposure; we stick with buys on Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Concordia


Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine

Japan

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. The Company provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Price Gauge
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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Asian Banks - Wide Variance in Credit Growth, and in Delta of Growth Rates in Recent Months

There is a wide variance of domestic loan growth rates in Asian countries, one must be highly selective. There are implications for growth of net...

Daniel Tabbush

WEEKLY Tactical Recap: Samsung Electronics, CATL, Tokyo Electron, Advantest Corp, Bank of China, BYD

Weekly Global Macro Tactical Recap: our models tracks trends across asset classes to highlight overbought/oversold market conditions across Asian...

Nico Rosti

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Aug): Yamaha Motor, Orix, Advantest, Kioxia, Rakuten, Panasonic

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for Aug 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Yamaha Motor, Orix, Advantest, Kioxia, Rakuten, Kawasaki Kisen...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japan Banks - Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals

We look at how important or unimportant core banking income is to 50 banks in Japan, to better understand where divesting cross shareholding can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine

Norinchukin's big unrealized bond portfolio losses are not representative of interest rate risk in the bigger cap banks, Norinchukin is an...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Banks - Wide Variance in Credit Growth, and in Delta of Growth Rates in Recent Months

There is a wide variance of domestic loan growth rates in Asian countries, one must be highly selective. There are implications for growth of net...

Daniel Tabbush

WEEKLY Tactical Recap: Samsung Electronics, CATL, Tokyo Electron, Advantest Corp, Bank of China, BYD

Weekly Global Macro Tactical Recap: our models tracks trends across asset classes to highlight overbought/oversold market conditions across Asian...

Nico Rosti

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Aug): Yamaha Motor, Orix, Advantest, Kioxia, Rakuten, Panasonic

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for Aug 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Yamaha Motor, Orix, Advantest, Kioxia, Rakuten, Kawasaki Kisen...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japan Banks - Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals

We look at how important or unimportant core banking income is to 50 banks in Japan, to better understand where divesting cross shareholding can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine

​Norinchukin's big unrealized bond portfolio losses are not representative of interest rate risk in the bigger cap banks, Norinchukin is an...

Victor Galliano

Norinchukin's big unrealized bond portfolio losses are not representative of interest rate risk in the bigger cap banks, Norinchukin is an...