Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Event-Driven

Standard Chartered Bank is truly on sale, just in time for Christmas. <ul><li>It doesn&rsquo;t mean there won&rsquo;t be further reductions, but this sort of deal is rare.&nbsp;</li><li>In terms of market capitalization, the figures are now below Global Financial Crisis (GFC) levels, at US$21.3 billion.&nbsp; This compares with recent peak levels at US$61.5 billion in year 2012.</li><li>Potentially more interesting for a suitor bank is the price/book valuation that is now at 0.47x.</li></ul>

Standard Chartered Bank is truly on sale, just in time for Christmas. It doesn&rsquo;t mean there won&rsquo;t be further reductions, but this sort of deal is rare.&nbsp;In terms of market capitalization, the figures are now below Global Financial Crisis (GFC) levels, at US$21.3 billion.&nbsp; This compares with recent peak levels at US$61.5 billion in year 2012.Potentially more interesting for a suitor bank is the price/book valuation that is now at 0.47x.

Equity Bottom-Up

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

<ul><li>There are not many lenders to the beleaguered Russia in Asia, other than Japan&rsquo;s mega banks.</li><li>While the figures may be small in absolute terms, they could drive a major reversal in credit costs. That is from negative or near zero sums to figures that matter.&nbsp;</li><li>With Russia&rsquo;s GDP growth at its worst in years, now registering -1.9% growth, we must expect radical NPL formation.</li><li>So far only one major Russian bank has reported March 2015 numbers, and the numbers are worrisome.</li></ul>

There are not many lenders to the beleaguered Russia in Asia, other than Japan&rsquo;s mega banks.While the figures may be small in absolute terms, they could drive a major reversal in credit costs. That is from negative or near zero sums to figures that matter.&nbsp;With Russia&rsquo;s GDP growth at its worst in years, now registering -1.9% growth, we must expect radical NPL formation.So far only one major Russian bank has reported March 2015 numbers, and the numbers are worrisome.

Japan's lending to Russia. The numbers are worrisome. 

Weakness in Japan mega bank financials - with dreadful margins and near zero domestic loan growth - has been hidden by loan loss reversals, but this will change. Rising credit costs from Russian lending will expose bank weakness under Abenomics.&nbsp;

Weakness in Japan mega bank financials - with dreadful margins and near zero domestic loan growth - has been hidden by loan loss reversals, but this will change. Rising credit costs from Russian lending will expose bank weakness under Abenomics.&nbsp;

Japan's mega banks will see major profit pressure from Russia credit costs

Japan

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established by Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation.  Sumitomo Mitsui Card Co., SMBC Leasing Co., and The Japanese Research Institute, Ltd. joined the Group in Feb., 2003. The Company manages financial operations for its subsidiaries.  The Group provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr) (SMFG US)

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr)

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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr) (SMFG US)

Standard Chartered Bank Is on Sale!

Standard Chartered Bank is truly on sale, just in time for Christmas. It doesn’t mean there won’t be further reductions, but this sort of deal is...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan's lending to Russia. The numbers are worrisome.

There are not many lenders to the beleaguered Russia in Asia, other than Japan’s mega banks. While the figures may be small in absolute terms,...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan's mega banks will see major profit pressure from Russia credit costs

Weakness in Japan mega bank financials - with dreadful margins and near zero domestic loan growth - has been hidden by loan loss reversals, but...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)