New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Summerset Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Summerset (SUM) will report its FY24 results on Friday, 28 February.</li><li>We expect solid growth across revenue, annuity EBITDA and underlying earnings, but see room for disappointment, particularly with its Australian expansion and net debt growth.</li><li>SUM mentioned at its early December 2024 investor day it was tracking broadly in line with then current consensus earnings estimates (~NZ$204m underlying earnings), but the components between new sale gains and annuity EBITDA will be important. </li></ul>

Summerset (SUM) will report its FY24 results on Friday, 28 February.We expect solid growth across revenue, annuity EBITDA and underlying earnings, but see room for disappointment, particularly with its Australian expansion and net debt growth.SUM mentioned at its early December 2024 investor day it was tracking broadly in line with then current consensus earnings estimates (~NZ$204m underlying earnings), but the components between new sale gains and annuity EBITDA will be important. 

Summerset Group - FY24 Preview—Cost Control Vs Aussie Woes

<ul><li>Summerset (SUM) held a confident investor day focused on its flagship St Johns village, new designs, Australia, and sales.</li><li>In conjunction with its investor day, it announced four land acquisitions, all in New Zealand, and included a visit to what we suspect will be a future flagship broadacre development in Belmont, Auckland.</li><li>The Belmont land parcel will be paid for in part by issuing ~1% of new shares to the vendor, an innovative and sensible funding solution.</li></ul>

Summerset (SUM) held a confident investor day focused on its flagship St Johns village, new designs, Australia, and sales.In conjunction with its investor day, it announced four land acquisitions, all in New Zealand, and included a visit to what we suspect will be a future flagship broadacre development in Belmont, Auckland.The Belmont land parcel will be paid for in part by issuing ~1% of new shares to the vendor, an innovative and sensible funding solution.

Summerset Group - St Johns to Deliver Balance Sheet Salvation?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare (RYM) has expanded its price cuts to approximately one-third of its portfolio, including serviced apartments, to boost sales and manage inventory.</li><li>The New Zealand housing market remains a challenge for the aged care sector, but there are signs of stabilization with stable prices, declining mortgage rates, and increased turnover.</li><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) is rated as the top pick in the aged care sector, with positive outlook based on its care ORA exposure.</li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) has expanded its price cuts to approximately one-third of its portfolio, including serviced apartments, to boost sales and manage inventory.The New Zealand housing market remains a challenge for the aged care sector, but there are signs of stabilization with stable prices, declining mortgage rates, and increased turnover.Oceania Healthcare (OCA) is rated as the top pick in the aged care sector, with positive outlook based on its care ORA exposure.

Aged Care Sector Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

<ul><li>The aged care sector is showing signs of stability with unit and sales pricing holding steady despite Ryman Healthcare's selective price cuts.</li><li>Oceania Healthcare is rated OUTPERFORM due to its resilient demand focus and potential for debt reduction through inventory sell down.</li><li>The New Zealand housing market shows signs of recovery, with sales improving and a stable period for unit price buffers expected over the medium term.</li></ul>

The aged care sector is showing signs of stability with unit and sales pricing holding steady despite Ryman Healthcare's selective price cuts.Oceania Healthcare is rated OUTPERFORM due to its resilient demand focus and potential for debt reduction through inventory sell down.The New Zealand housing market shows signs of recovery, with sales improving and a stable period for unit price buffers expected over the medium term.

Aged Care Sector - Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

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<li>It takes approximately 15 years for a retirement village to be built and reach cash flow maturity, with an additional several decades of operational activity to follow.</li>
<li>The Aged Care sector operates on a time scale, where impacts from climate change are highly relevant.</li>
<li>In addition, the elderly are at the centre of the business model, some of the most vulnerable members of society. </li>
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It takes approximately 15 years for a retirement village to be built and reach cash flow maturity, with an additional several decades of operational activity to follow.
The Aged Care sector operates on a time scale, where impacts from climate change are highly relevant.
In addition, the elderly are at the centre of the business model, some of the most vulnerable members of society. 






New Zealand

Summerset Group Holdings Ltd. is a profit-oriented entity and develops, owns and operates integrated retirement villages, rest homes and hospitals for the elderly within New Zealand.

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Summerset Group Holdings (SUM NZ)

Summerset Group - FY24 Preview—Cost Control Vs Aussie Woes

We expect solid growth across revenue, annuity EBITDA and underlying earnings, but see room for disappointment, particularly with its Australian...

Forsyth Barr

Summerset Group - St Johns to Deliver Balance Sheet Salvation?

Summerset (SUM) held a confident investor day focused on its flagship St Johns village, new designs, Australia, and sales. In conjunction with its...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) has expanded its price cuts to approximately one-third of its portfolio, including serviced apartments, to boost sales and...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector - Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

The aged care sector is showing signs of stability with unit and sales pricing holding steady despite Ryman Healthcare's selective price cuts.

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector

It takes approximately 15 years for a retirement village to be built and reach cash flow maturity, with an additional several decades of...

Forsyth Barr

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)