New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Summerset Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Summerset (SUM) reported a broadly in-line FY25 result, but guidance around operating margins implies a step-up in opex in FY26 relative to our prior expectations.</li><li>SUM has delivered a ~+19% CAGR in NTA per share over the last fifteen years and is still growing its unit base ~+10% per year.</li><li>Momentum also appears to be improving off a low base in Australia.</li></ul>

Summerset (SUM) reported a broadly in-line FY25 result, but guidance around operating margins implies a step-up in opex in FY26 relative to our prior expectations.SUM has delivered a ~+19% CAGR in NTA per share over the last fifteen years and is still growing its unit base ~+10% per year.Momentum also appears to be improving off a low base in Australia.

Summerset Group FY25 Result—SUMthing For Everyone

<ul><li>Summerset (SUM) will report its FY25 result on Friday 27 February 2026.</li><li>We expect continued momentum in SUM’s development and sales engine but forecast a meaningful decline in annuity earnings, driven by higher D&amp;A, refurbishment costs, and interest.</li><li>SUM has guided for net debt to stabilise in FY26, following growth of &gt;NZ$1bn over the last four years, which has led some investors to question the sustainability of its growth path.</li></ul>

Summerset (SUM) will report its FY25 result on Friday 27 February 2026.We expect continued momentum in SUM’s development and sales engine but forecast a meaningful decline in annuity earnings, driven by higher D&amp;A, refurbishment costs, and interest.SUM has guided for net debt to stabilise in FY26, following growth of &gt;NZ$1bn over the last four years, which has led some investors to question the sustainability of its growth path.

Summerset Group FY25 Preview—Balance Sheet in Focus

<ul><li>Summerset Group (SUM) delivered a robust 4Q25 sales update, which highlights a continuation of constructive trends.</li><li>Sales volumes are a critical determinant of SUM's net debt trajectory, which we expect to be one of the key drivers of share price performance in 2026.</li><li>We have lowered our net debt forecasts modestly following SUM's update and walk away incrementally more confident it can deliver a stabilisation in net debt in FY26.</li></ul>

Summerset Group (SUM) delivered a robust 4Q25 sales update, which highlights a continuation of constructive trends.Sales volumes are a critical determinant of SUM's net debt trajectory, which we expect to be one of the key drivers of share price performance in 2026.We have lowered our net debt forecasts modestly following SUM's update and walk away incrementally more confident it can deliver a stabilisation in net debt in FY26.

<ul><li>We upgrade our rating on Summerset (SUM) from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM with an increased target price of NZ$14.30.</li><li>We expect SUM to sustain its sector-leading asset growth over the next decade, given: (1) its best-in-class development engine already delivering ~700 units per year; (2) NZ retirement village consents at the lowest level in a decade; and (3) key competitors significantly scaling back development.</li><li>With this report we transfer coverage from Aaron Ibbotson to Will Twiss.</li></ul>

We upgrade our rating on Summerset (SUM) from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM with an increased target price of NZ$14.30.We expect SUM to sustain its sector-leading asset growth over the next decade, given: (1) its best-in-class development engine already delivering ~700 units per year; (2) NZ retirement village consents at the lowest level in a decade; and (3) key competitors significantly scaling back development.With this report we transfer coverage from Aaron Ibbotson to Will Twiss.

Summerset Group Positive Developments—Up to OUTPERFORM

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Improving care profitability was a key theme of the May 2026 reporting season for NZ’s listed retirement and aged care sector.</li><li>Looking ahead to FY27, we expect a further meaningful uplift in care profitability for RYM and OCA, supported by a ~+4% increase in care funding from the NZ Government and ongoing occupancy tailwinds.</li><li>Despite improving earnings trends overall, returns on aged care assets in NZ remain well below the cost of capital for operators.</li></ul>

Improving care profitability was a key theme of the May 2026 reporting season for NZ’s listed retirement and aged care sector.Looking ahead to FY27, we expect a further meaningful uplift in care profitability for RYM and OCA, supported by a ~+4% increase in care funding from the NZ Government and ongoing occupancy tailwinds.Despite improving earnings trends overall, returns on aged care assets in NZ remain well below the cost of capital for operators.

Retirement And Aged Care Sector Care Vital Signs Improving

New Zealand

Summerset Group Holdings Ltd. is a profit-oriented entity and develops, owns and operates integrated retirement villages, rest homes and hospitals for the elderly within New Zealand.

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Summerset Group Holdings (SUM NZ)

Summerset Group FY25 Result—SUMthing For Everyone

Summerset (SUM) reported a broadly in-line FY25 result, but guidance around operating margins implies a step-up in opex in FY26 relative to our...

Forsyth Barr

Summerset Group FY25 Preview—Balance Sheet in Focus

SUM has guided for net debt to stabilise in FY26, following growth of >NZ$1bn over the last four years, which has led some investors to question...

Forsyth Barr

Summerset Group Summer Sales Sizzle

We have lowered our net debt forecasts modestly following SUM's update and walk away incrementally more confident it can deliver a stabilisation in...

Forsyth Barr

Summerset Group Positive Developments—Up to OUTPERFORM

We expect SUM to sustain its sector-leading asset growth over the next decade, given: (1) its best-in-class development engine already delivering...

Forsyth Barr

Retirement And Aged Care Sector Care Vital Signs Improving

Improving care profitability was a key theme of the May 2026 reporting season for NZ’s listed retirement and aged care sector. Looking ahead to...

Forsyth Barr

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