New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<li>It takes approximately 15 years for a retirement village to be built and reach cash flow maturity, with an additional several decades of operational activity to follow.</li>
<li>The Aged Care sector operates on a time scale, where impacts from climate change are highly relevant.</li>
<li>In addition, the elderly are at the centre of the business model, some of the most vulnerable members of society. </li>
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It takes approximately 15 years for a retirement village to be built and reach cash flow maturity, with an additional several decades of operational activity to follow.
The Aged Care sector operates on a time scale, where impacts from climate change are highly relevant.
In addition, the elderly are at the centre of the business model, some of the most vulnerable members of society. 






<ul><li>On the face of it, little has changed in the aged care and NZ housing markets over the past six months.</li><li>House/unit prices are broadly flat and turnover remains a challenge.</li><li>But that hasn't stopped the aged care operators continuing to report record high sales numbers. </li></ul>

On the face of it, little has changed in the aged care and NZ housing markets over the past six months.House/unit prices are broadly flat and turnover remains a challenge.But that hasn't stopped the aged care operators continuing to report record high sales numbers. 

Aged Care Sector - Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

<ul><li>The proposed acquisition of Arvida Group (ARV) by Stonepeak Alps BidCo injected meaningful optimism into the listed aged care sector.</li><li>And rightly so. The aged care sector is suffering from a combination of (1) a lack of confidence in the business model driven by years of weak cash generation; (2) concerns around house prices and interest rates; and (3) an overly negative outlook on care profitability.</li><li>Whilst all issues are understandable, we view them as largely backward looking. </li></ul>

The proposed acquisition of Arvida Group (ARV) by Stonepeak Alps BidCo injected meaningful optimism into the listed aged care sector.And rightly so. The aged care sector is suffering from a combination of (1) a lack of confidence in the business model driven by years of weak cash generation; (2) concerns around house prices and interest rates; and (3) an overly negative outlook on care profitability.Whilst all issues are understandable, we view them as largely backward looking. 

Aged Care Sector - M&A Arrives to Aged Care

<ul><li>May REINZ data suggested that some glimmers of hope may be returning to the NZ residential property market.</li><li>Turnover was up +30% versus April and monthly price declines slowed to -0.7%.</li><li>The Auckland region, which tends to lead the rest of the country, saw volumes +38% versus April and prices down only -0.4%.</li></ul>

May REINZ data suggested that some glimmers of hope may be returning to the NZ residential property market.Turnover was up +30% versus April and monthly price declines slowed to -0.7%.The Auckland region, which tends to lead the rest of the country, saw volumes +38% versus April and prices down only -0.4%.

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

<ul><li>Our MI index remains flat: Year-on-year growth for our MI-aged care pricing index to February has fallen to only +3% and the index has been flat over the last six months</li><li>Pricing buffers consumed by falling house prices</li><li>Low turnover and elevated days to sell are no signs of a "proper" bottom in house prices</li></ul>

Our MI index remains flat: Year-on-year growth for our MI-aged care pricing index to February has fallen to only +3% and the index has been flat over the last six monthsPricing buffers consumed by falling house pricesLow turnover and elevated days to sell are no signs of a "proper" bottom in house prices

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index (15-March-2023)

New Zealand

Summerset Group Holdings Ltd. is a profit-oriented entity and develops, owns and operates integrated retirement villages, rest homes and hospitals for the elderly within New Zealand.

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Summerset Group Holdings (SUM NZ)

Aged Care Sector

It takes approximately 15 years for a retirement village to be built and reach cash flow maturity, with an additional several decades of...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector - Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

vOn the face of it, little has changed in the aged care and NZ housing markets over the past six months. House/unit prices are broadly flat and...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector - M&A Arrives to Aged Care

The proposed acquisition of Arvida Group (ARV) by Stonepeak Alps BidCo injected meaningful optimism into the listed aged care sector.

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

May REINZ data suggested that some glimmers of hope may be returning to the NZ residential property market; Turnover was up +30% versus April and...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index (15-March-2023)

Another tough month for the aged care stocks, down between -10% and -15%, has likely been driven to a significant degree...

Forsyth Barr

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